Source to TrendForce, the most recent update on solar materials pricing indicates an ongoing decline in Polysilicon and Module prices, while Wafer and Cell prices are holding steady for the time being.

• Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continue to decline throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 64/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 62/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 66/KG.

Looking at the market transaction dynamics, there’s not a significant volume of orders being placed. Some companies are gearing up for December’s order negotiations. Observing the price trend, polysilicon manufacturers are adjusting prices for both new and existing orders. Even some previously high-priced orders have experienced declines.

Furthermore, the average price of N-type polysilicon in new orders is generally below the 70000 yuan/ton mark. On the supply side, numerous projects are now in production, leading to a constant increase in the marginal increment of polysilicon and further swelling polysilicon inventory. Consequently, polysilicon manufacturers are grappling with increased pressure to de-stock.

Despite a month-on-month rise in operation rates for professional wafer manufacturers, creating additional demand for polysilicon, the surplus supply remains challenging to address.

This week, polysilicon prices continue their downward trajectory, and there’s a significant oversupply of polysilicon. Moreover, with customer installation demand still not turning positive, crystal pulling manufacturers are adopting a pessimistic stance toward future polysilicon prices, displaying a cautious approach to purchasing polysilicon.

On the flip side, polysilicon manufacturers are determined to maintain current prices and show no signs of reducing prices to clear inventory. In conclusion, a tug-of-war in pricing dynamics is evident between buyers and sellers.

• Wafer

The prices of wafer have maintained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 2.30/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.30/Pc and M10 N-type is priced at RMB2.40/Pc.

On the supply side, wafer inventory has returned to the reasonable range, sitting at approximately 1.3-1.5 billion pieces. Analyzing various wafer types, the inventory of 210mm P-type wafers has seen a notable decrease, with the consumption rate slowing due to weakened demand.

With the alleviation of inventory pressure, specialized wafer manufacturers are ramping up their operational rates, resulting in a slight month-on-month increase in wafer output. Turning to the demand side, cell manufacturers are indicating a reduction in the production of 182mm P-type cells, while there’s no change in output for other cell types.

Consequently, the purchasing demand for 182mm P-type wafers is expected to decrease. Although wafer prices are holding steady this week, considering the divergent operational rates among downstream cell manufacturers, a future divergence in prices between N-type and P-type wafers is anticipated.

Moreover, attention should be directed towards whether the demand and supply relationship can sustain stable prices after the higher wafer activation rates lead to an increase in wafer output during the same period.

• Cell

Cell prices have maintained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.46/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.56/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.

On the supply side, cell inventory can currently sustain for about six to seven days, but the pressure on inventory is mounting as downstream demand gradually declines. We’re currently in the midst of the technology iteration phase for N-type and P-type cells.

The production capacity of 182mm P-type cells has significantly dropped, leading to a decline in its OEM fees to 1.0-1.2 yuan. Given the current cell price and the manufacturing cost, the production line for 182mm P-type cells is operating at a loss, while the 210mm P-type cells are still profitable, thanks to orders this month.

However, as order deliveries conclude, the tense supply and demand dynamics are expected to ease. On the demand side, downstream module prices continue to slide, prompting module manufacturers to push for a reduction in cell prices. Additionally, customer demand is sluggish, and buyers are adopting a more cautious approach to future purchases.

This week, cell prices remain relatively stable, but production of 182mm P-type cells has been significantly reduced due to sustained losses, leading to a simultaneous decline in demand and supply. Nevertheless, there is still support from order deliveries for 210mm P-type cells.

In conclusion, with module prices consistently decreasing, we anticipate that cell prices will face increasing pressure in the coming weeks.

• Module

Module prices have gone down throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.03/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.04/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.04/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.05/W.

On the supply side, prices quoted by leading manufacturers to their dealers have plummeted to less than 1 yuan/W, and bidding prices for recent projects are hitting unprecedented lows. The competition among module manufacturers has reached a fever pitch, driving prices in the sector to their rock bottom.

As the N-type and P-type technology undergo iteration, production capacity is slated to be officially cleared at its current low price. Shifting to the demand side, October saw a month-on-month decrease in new PV installations, indicating a clear decline in installation demand, according to statistics from the NEA.

Although distributed PV installed capacity remains robust, it cannot sustain a significant increase, and centralized ground installations are entering their off-season. Additionally, there’s no indication of a rebound in overseas demand, making it challenging for customer demand for module purchases to turn positive.

As the year draws to a close and earinings reports will be reported, manufacturers are grappling with the pressure to meet annual goals, intensifying the need to clear inventory. However, they find themselves in a precarious position in negotiations with customers, compelling them to further reduce prices to facilitate more shipments.

In summary, module prices are experiencing a decline this week and are anticipated to further decrease in the near future.

Following the Singles’ Day Sale in China, demands are relatively cooled down. While for DRAM spot prices, market experiences fluctuations due to subdued demand and increased supply of used chips. In contrast, NAND spot price remains relatively strong under the ongoing reduction in supply.

DRAM Spot Market

Following the Singles’ Day promotional events in China, demand has cooled down compared with the previous few weeks. Looking at DRAM spot prices, prices for chips from suppliers have remained steady, but there has been an influx of used chips stripped from decommissioned modules. Spot prices of used DDR4 chips have now fallen to US$1.05, significantly lower than the spot price of around US$1.75 for new chips from suppliers. Spot prices of DDR5 chips, on the other hand, have remained relatively stable. However, Kingston has not raised module prices, making it difficult to sustain the upward momentum. The average spot price of mainstream chips (DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 1.54% from US$1.683 last week to US$1.709 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market

Demand from the spot market has become even more enervated after China’s Double 11 shopping festival when compared to that of several weeks ago. In terms of spot prices, the mainstream 512Gb wafer is supported by suppliers’ ongoing diminishment of wafer provision, and continues to march towards US$2.7-US$2.9 at a relatively robust tendency in comparison with DRAM spots, despite poor demand. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 11.54% this week, arriving at US$2.862.

According to IJWEI’s report, Japanese companies heavily reliant on key battery and semiconductor materials manufactured in China are expanding their sources as China intensifies export controls.

On October 20th, China announced that certain graphite items, including high-purity, high-strength, and high-density synthetic graphite materials and their products, cannot be exported without permission.

This regulation officially takes effect on December 1st of this year. Graphite is crucial for manufacturing the negative electrode of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. While the permit requirements do not constitute a ban, they may lead to a reduction in China’s graphite exports.

Over 80% of the natural graphite used in Japan comes from China. In case of a disruption in graphite imports, Mitsubishi Chemical Group in Japan is considering strengthening its production of electrode materials in Shandong. The company is also exploring partnerships in Australia and production in Mozambique and Norway to diversify the supply.

Representatives from Nissan Motor Company have stated that they will consider sourcing graphite and other key electric vehicle materials from alternative regions.

Panasonic’s battery subsidiary, Panasonic Energy, is collaborating with a Canadian graphite company on research for large-scale production of electrode materials. In September of this year, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) and the Canadian government signed an agreement to strengthen the battery supply chain.

According to data from the United States Geological Survey, the global graphite production reached 1.3 million tons in 2022, experiencing a 15% year-on-year growth due to the popularity of electric vehicles. China contributes to 70% of the graphite production and is a major producer of synthetic graphite. China serves as the primary low-cost exporter for both types of materials.

“The costs of procuring graphite will inevitably rise, the focus will be on how companies maintain their competitive advantage while bearing the costs.” as stated by Noboru Sato, visiting professor at Nagoya University.

Graphite is not the sole crucial mineral for China. In August of this year, China intensified export restrictions on gallium and germanium, vital rare metals used in the manufacturing of electronic components and semiconductors. Customs data indicates a significant decrease in the export of these two metals.

Japanese manufacturers are also exploring materials sources unaffected by China’s export controls. Kanto Denka Kogyo, a chemical producer, is testing lithium compounds from regions like South America to manufacture battery electrolytes. The company is also collaborating with Sumitomo Metal Mining to test technology for lithium recovery from discarded electric vehicle batteries.

At the same time, Japan is using diplomacy and foreign aid to ensure a stable supply of critical materials. Both China and Japan have confirmed the establishment of new bilateral export control dialogues. Senior trade officials from both sides will engage in regular consultations on export restriction issues.

The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry is seeking JPY 260 billion (approximately USD 1.74 billion) in the supplementary budget proposal for this fiscal year to support Japan’s battery manufacturing. Some of the funds may be allocated for investing in companies producing synthetic graphite in Japan.

Last year, Japan’s additional budget provided approximately JPY 200 billion to support the extraction, refining, and processing of critical minerals. Companies investing overseas in the production of rare metals will receive subsidies of up to half.

Companies outside Japan are also taking action to mitigate the impact of Chinese supply restrictions. According to Business Korea’s report, South Korea’s company Posco Future M, which produces battery materials, has preemptively planned to manufacture synthetic graphite using coal tar, a byproduct that can be sourced domestically in Korea.

Read more

• [News] China Implements Export Restrictions on Graphite, Impacting Battery and Electric Vehicle Industries
• [News] China’s Export Control Measures and Their Impact on Electric Vehicle Battery Production

(Photo credit: Pixabay)

On November 28, CXMT revealed its latest DRAM product, LPDDR5. As the first Chinese brand to independently develop and manufacture LPDDR5 products, CXMT marks a breakthrough in the Chinese market and broadens its product reach in the mobile terminal market, reported by MooreNews.

CXMT’s LPDDR5, the fifth generation of low-power double data rate synchronous dynamic random access memory, boasts a 50% increase in single-die density and speed compared to LPDDR4X, respectively reaching 12Gb and 6400Mbps. Notably, power consumption is reduced by 30%. Featuring robust RAS features, including on-die error correction code (ECC) for real-time error correction, LPDDR5 enable data security and system stability. The 12GB LPDDR5 chip from CXMT is the first product adopting Package on Package (PoP) stacking for the company.

The launch of LPDDR5 by CXMT enhances the quality and reduces costs for personal and business applications, further expanding its footprint in the mobile market. As the first company in launching independently developed and manufactured LPDDR5 products in China, CXMT accelerates the industrialization of the DRAM industry, spearheading the Chinese DRAM industry into the LPDDR5 era.

LPDDR5 chips bring faster speeds and lower power consumption to mobile electronic devices, significantly improving overall product performance. According to CXMT’s website, LPDDR5 products have already received validation from major Chinese smartphone brands such as Xiaomi and Transsion, with plans to expedite overall market commercialization.

In its product lineup, CXMT specializes in DRAM design, with DDR4, LPDDR4X, and DDR4 modules catering to diverse storage needs in terms of performance, capacity, and usage. Collaborating through joint research and development with leading customer companies, CXMT delivers highly customized integrated solutions, effectively meeting the varied demands of the market. The introduction of LPDDR5 further solidifies CXMT’s position in the mobile market.
(Image: CXMT)

Loongson Technology Corp Ltd, unveiled its latest domestic CPU, Loongson 3A6000, on November 28th in Beijing, China. Notably, this CPU is entirely based on Chinese in-house design, free from reliance on any foreign licensed technology. During the product launch, Weiwu Hu, the chairman of Loongson, announced that next phase will utilize mature processes to achieve performance comparable to Intel’s advanced process, reported by CTEE.

Loongson 3A6000 adopts a China domestic instruction set architecture(ISA), showcasing China’s capability to self-develop a new generation CPU, as reported by CCTV News. This CPU can run various cross-platform applications, catering to the needs of diverse large and complex desktop scenarios.

The release of the Loongson 3A6000 signifies a pivotal milestone, highlighting China’s achievement in self sufficiency and product performance, bringing it on par with international mainstream products.

According to Mydrivers.com, test results indicate that the overall performance of the Loongson 3A6000 processor is comparable to Intel’s 10^th Gen Core quad-core processor launched in 2020. Notably, the Loongson 3A6000 is built on the self-developed ISA “LoongArch,” showcasing complete independence from foreign licensing, from top-level structure to ISA and application binary interface (ABI) standards.

In terms of core performance, the Loongson 3A6000 boasts a main frequency of 2.5GHz, supports 128-bit vector extension (Loongson SIMD eXtension, LSX), and 256-bit advanced vector extension (Loongson Advanced SIMD eXtension, LASX). It also supports simultaneous multi-threading technology (SMT2), featuring a total of 8 logical cores on the entire chip.

Hu highlighted that the 3A6000 has charted a path based on mature processes, optimizing performance through design. This achievement marks comparable performance with Intel and AMD under relatively weaker process conditions. The next step involves continuing to use mature processes to achieve performance levels on par with Intel’s advanced technology.

Regarding the upcoming Loongson 3B6000, Hu mentioned during the third-quarter earnings briefing that Loongson is strategically focused on enhancing efficiency, aiming to reach or approach the performance level of Apple’s CPU for each GHz.
(Image: Jiwei)