As reported by Indian media Economic Times, India’s Tata group may collaborate with Taiwanese semiconductor foundries like UMC or PSMC to establish the first fab in India, initially producing mature process chips with a planned monthly capacity of 25,000 wafers. If successful, it would mark Taiwan’s semiconductor industry’s first venture into India.

The report addresses the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions, which has led to India’s issues in local chip manufacturing. Thus, India is reportedly looking for major foundries to establish fabs in India, given its substantial demand for semiconductors.

Although neither UMC nor PSMC has formally announced investments in India, as per the Economic Times of India, Tata Group may collaborate with Taiwanese foundries like UMC or PSMC to establish a semiconductor fab in Dholera, Gujarat, India.

Initially targeting the 65-nanometer mature process, the aforementioned fab is expected a monthly capacity of 25,000 wafers, with plans for future upgrades to 48-nanometer and 28-nanometer processes, supporting the production of GPUs, consumer electronics, and Internet of Things (IoT) applications in the coming years.

According to sources cited by the Economic Times of India, Tata Group has finalized the details of the land for this factory and groundbreaking may occur soon. However, Tata Group’s entry into the 28-nanometer process may take some time as it needs to ensure sufficient orders for mature processes in the Indian market.

PSMC Chairman Frank Huang revealed in early 2023 that he had received an invitation to assist in setting up a plant in India, but he did not disclose the details or the inviting party at that time.

PSMC has yet to announce any investments in India.

Instead, they have partnered with the Japanese company SBI Holdings, Inc. to establish a joint venture for a 12-inch fab in Japan. This venture will be located in the Second Northern Sendai Central Industrial Park in Ohira Village, Kurokawa District, Miyagi Prefecture. It is planned to produce chips ranging from 28 to 55 nanometers, with an initial monthly capacity of 10,000 wafers and an ultimate goal of 40,000 wafers, focusing on the automotive chip market.

UMC has also been reportedly sending representatives to India for inspections and discussions regarding the opportunity to establish facilities there, as disclosed by Indian media in recent years.

However, UMC has yet to take any action to invest in India. Instead, in 2022, the company initiated its strategy to establish a new 22-nanometer fab in Singapore, with plans for completion by the end of the second quarter of this year and mass production slated to begin in early 2025, with an initial monthly capacity of 20,000 to 30,000 wafers.

UMC and PSMC didn’t comment on the matter on February 20th. “UMC does not comment on market speculations.” a spokesperson for UMC said, cited by Economic Times.

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(Photo credit: Tata Group)

TrendForce has released the latest panel quotations for late February.

TV panel prices shall rise in February due to low inventory stimulating demand; Monitor panel demand remains steady, with some increase due to TV panel price trends; Notebook panel demand declines, with prices expected to drop for FHD IPS and 16:10 models in February. More details are as follows:

• TV

Despite the reduced demand, panel manufacturers continue to adjust supply capacity to match. Due to fewer working days in February and the Lunar New Year holiday, the average utilization rate is expected to drop to below 60%. 

With TV panel inventory not high in the supply chain, manufacturers’ production control strategies have successfully stimulated a gradual recovery in TV panel demand. Customers may advance some demand, so it is anticipated that TV panel prices will return to an upward trend in February.

Currently, it is expected that prices for 32-inch, 43-inch, and 50-inch panels will increase by 1 USD, while 55-inch panels will rise by 2 USD, 65-inch panels by 3  USD, and 75-inch panels by 2 USD in February.

• Monitor

Although demand for monitor panels is currently in the off-season, factors such as reduced working days in February, panel production cuts, and unstable shipping conditions are prompting some customers to increase orders. 

Additionally, with the established upward trend in TV panel prices in February, there is a chance for monitor panel prices, especially Open Cell panels, which are more closely linked to TV panels, to stabilize. 

It is expected that in February, Open Cell panel prices may increase by 0.1 to 0.2 USD, while panel module prices will remain generally stable.

• Notebook

The demand for notebook panels remains in the off-season during the first quarter, especially as some customers maintained momentum in the fourth quarter of last year, resulting in higher inventory levels. 

Therefore, they significantly reduced order volumes in the first quarter and also demanded panel manufacturers to maintain the trend of price reductions. In this weak demand environment, panel manufacturers are less likely to hold stable prices. 

Different strategies among panel manufacturers also increase the chances of continued downward trends in notebook panel prices, and the time for a comprehensive turnaround has not yet arrived. 

It is expected that in February, only TN models of notebook panel prices may remain stable, while FHD IPS models are expected to decline by 0.1 USD, and 16:10 models are expected to decline by 0.2 to 0.3 USD.

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• [Insights] Early February Panel Prices Update, TV Panel Returns to an Upward Pricing Trend

Last year’s AI boom propelled NVIDIA into the spotlight, yet the company finds itself at a challenging crossroads.

According to a report from TechNews, on one hand, NVIDIA dominates in high-performance computing and artificial intelligence, continuously expanding with its latest GPU products. On the other hand, global supply chain instability, rapid emergence of competitors, and uncertainties in technological innovation are exerting unprecedented pressure on NVIDIA.

NVIDIA’s stock price surged by 246% last year, driving its market value past USD 1 trillion and making it the first chip company to achieve this milestone. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s personal wealth has soared to USD 55.7 billion.

However, despite the seemingly radiant outlook for the NVIDIA, as per a report from TechNews, it still faces uncontrollable internal and external challenges.

• Internal Concern 1: CoWoS, HBM Capacity Bottlenecks

The most apparent issue lies in capacity constraints.

Currently, NVIDIA’s A100 and H100 GPUs are manufactured using TSMC’s CoWoS packaging technology. However, with the surge in demand for generative AI, TSMC’s CoWoS capacity is severely strained. Consequently, NVIDIA has certified other CoWoS packaging suppliers such as UMC, ASE, and American OSAT manufacturer Amkor as backup options.

Meanwhile, TSMC has relocated its InFo production capacity from Longtan to Southern Taiwan Science Park. The vacated Longtan fab is being repurposed to expand CoWoS capacity, while the Zhunan and Taichung fabs are also contributing to the expansion of CoWoS production to alleviate capacity constraints.

However, during the earnings call, TSMC also stated that despite a doubling of capacity in 2024, it still may not be sufficient to meet all customer demands.

In addition to TSMC’s CoWoS capacity, industry rumors suggest that NVIDIA has made significant upfront payments to Micron, SK Hynix, to secure HBM3 memory, ensuring a stable supply of HBM memory. However, the entire HBM capacity of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron for this year has already been allocated. Therefore, whether the capacity can meet market demand will be a significant challenge for NVIDIA.

• Internal Concern 2: Major Customers Shifting Towards In-house Chips

While cloud service providers (CSPs) fiercely compete for GPUs, major players like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are actively investing in in-house AI chips.

Amazon and Google have respectively introduced Trainium and TPU chips, Microsoft announced its first in-house AI chip Maia 100 along with in-house cloud computing CPU Cobalt 100, while Meta plans to unveil its first-generation in-house AI chip MTIA by 2025.

Although these hyperscale customers still rely on NVIDIA’s chips, in the long run, it may impact NVIDIA’s market share, inadvertently positioning them as competitors and affecting profits. Consequently, NVIDIA finds it challenging to depend solely on these hyperscale customers.

• External Challenge 1: Export Control Pressures Lead to Loss of Chinese Customers

Due to escalating tensions between the US and China, the US issued new regulations prohibiting NVIDIA from exporting advanced AI chips to China. Consequently, NVIDIA introduced specially tailored versions such as A800 and H800 for the Chinese market.

However, they were ultimately blocked by the US, and products including A100, A800, H100, H800, and L40S were included in the export control list.Subsequently, NVIDIA decided to introduce new AI GPUs, namely HGXH20, L20 PCIe, and L2 PCIe, in compliance with export policies.

However, with only 20% of the computing power of H100, they are planned for mass production in the second quarter. Due to the reduced performance, major Chinese companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu reportedly refused to purchase, explicitly stating significant order cuts for the year. Consequently, NVIDIA’s revenue prospects in China appear grim, with some orders even being snatched by Huawei.

Currently, NVIDIA’s sales revenue from Singapore and China accounts for 15% of its total revenue. Moreover, the company holds over 90% market share in the AI chip market in China. Therefore, the cost of abandoning the Chinese market would be substantial. NVIDIA is adamant about not easily giving up on China; however, the challenge lies in how to comply with US government policies and pressures while meeting the demands of Chinese customers.

As per NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang during its last earnings call, he mentioned that US export control measures would have an impact. Contributions from China and other regions accounted for 20-25% of data center revenue in the last quarter, with a significant anticipated decline this quarter.

He also expressed concerns that besides losing the Chinese market, the situation would accelerate China’s efforts to manufacture its own chips and introduce proprietary GPU products, providing Chinese companies with opportunities to rise.

• External Challenge 2: Arch-Rivals Intel and AMD Begin Their Offensive

In the race to capture the AI market opportunity, arch-rivals Intel and AMD are closely after NVIDIA. As NVIDIA pioneered the adoption of TSMC’s 4-nanometer H100, AMD quickly followed suit by launching the first batch of “Instinct MI300X” for AI and HPC applications last year.

Currently, shipments of MI300X have commenced this year, with Microsoft’s data center division emerging as the largest buyer. Meta has also procured a substantial amount of Instinct MI300 series products, while LaminiAI stands as the first publicly known company to utilize MI300X.

According to official performance tests by AMD, the MI300X outperforms the existing NVIDIA H100 80GB available on the market, posing a potential threat to the upcoming H200 141GB.

Additionally, compared to the H100 chip, the MI300X offers a more competitive price for products of the same level. If NVIDIA’s production capacity continues to be restricted, some customers may switch to AMD.

Meanwhile, Intel unveiled the “Gaudi3” chip for generative AI software last year. Although there is limited information available, it is rumored that the memory capacity may increase by 50% compared to Gaudi 2’s 96GB, possibly upgrading to HBM3e memory. CEO Pat Gelsinger directly stated that “Gaudi 3 performance will surpass that of the H100.”

• External Challenge 3: Startup Underdogs Form AI Platform Alliance in Attempt to Conquer

Several global chip design companies have recently announced the formation of the “AI Platform Alliance,” aiming to promote an open AI ecosystem. The founding members of the AI Platform Alliance include Ampere, Cerebras Systems, Furiosa, Graphcore, Kalray, Kinara, Luminous, Neuchips, Rebellions, and Sapeon, among others.

Notably absent is industry giant NVIDIA, leading to speculation that startups aspire to unite and challenge NVIDIA’s dominance.

However, with NVIDIA holding a 75-90% market share in AI, it remains in a dominant position. Whether the AI Platform Alliance can disrupt NVIDIA’s leading position is still subject to observation.

Read more

• [News] NVIDIA’s Exclusive Chips for China Now Reported to be Available for Pre-Order, Priced Similar to Huawei Products
• [News] NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang Meets with TSMC Executives in Taiwan, Addressing the Significant AI Chip Shortage

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

The U.S. government announced on February 19th that semiconductor giant GlobalFoundries (GF) will be the third company to receive approval for subsidies under the Chips and Science Act, also known as the CHIPS Act, receiving USD 1.5 billion.

According to MoneyDJ’s reports citing from Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, and other global news outlets, under a preliminary agreement with the Department of Commerce, GlobalFoundries, the world’s third-largest semiconductor foundry, will construct a new fab in Malta, New York, while expanding the production capacity of its existing production lines in Malta and Burlington, Vermont.

The Department of Commerce stated that in addition to providing a USD 1.5 billion subsidy, GlobalFoundries will also be eligible for a USD 1.6 billion loan. It is anticipated that these arrangements may generate up to USD 12.5 billion in potential investment activities across the two states.

U.S. government officials further revealed that the proposed construction project is expected to create over 10,000 job opportunities in the next decade. The chips manufactured by GlobalFoundries in the new facility will find applications not only in automotive blind spot detection, collision warning systems, Wi-Fi, and mobile communications but also in satellite technology, aerospace communications, and the defense industry.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has previously granted subsidies of USD 35 million and USD 162 million to BAE Systems, a British defense and aerospace company, and Microchip Technology Inc., a microcontroller and analog IC supplier, respectively.

The U.S. Department of Commerce chose defense contractors as the first beneficiaries of the CHIPS Act subsidies, rather than traditional chip manufacturers, highlighting the focus of the legislation on national security.

The increasing reliance on advanced chips in weapon systems has become evident. Concerns were raised during the signing of the CHIPS Act in August 2022 regarding Taiwan potentially facing military attacks, which could lead to a global shortage of advanced chips and result in the United States falling behind.

As per the company’s press release, Thomas Caulfield, President and CEO of GlobalFoundries, pointed out that the industry needs to shift its focus to the increasing demand for American-made chips and strive to cultivate more semiconductor talents in the United States.

Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo stated at a press conference on February 19th that this is the third subsidy issued by the US government under the Chips and Science Act, with several more subsidies expected to be approved in the coming weeks to months.

Raimondo mentioned that GlobalFoundries’ expansion project at its Malta chip plant will ensure stable chip supplies for auto suppliers and manufacturers. Additionally, the high-value chips produced at the new Malta plant are unique to the United States.

In addition, GlobalFoundries and General Motors (GM) recently announced a long-term supply agreement on February 8th, aiming to avoid a recurrence of the chip shortage crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Reports have surfaced indicating that the U.S. government is considering granting Intel Corp. subsidies exceeding USD 10 billion. This would mark the largest incentive program since the inception of the CHIPS Act.

Due to market challenges and the slow pace of subsidy disbursement by the U.S. government, Intel has delayed the construction schedule of its USD 20 billion chip plant in Ohio. TSMC recently announced that the production launch of its $40 billion chip plant in Arizona will also be delayed due to ongoing subsidy negotiations with the U.S. government.

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(Photo credit: GlobalFoundries)

TSMC is scheduled to hold the opening ceremony for its Kumamoto plant on February 24. In contrast, the construction progress of its Arizona plant in the United States has been relatively slow.

According to TechNews citing a research report from the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), the construction speed of semiconductor plants in the United States is the slowest globally due to the intricate regulatory environment. While the U.S. chip law supports the semiconductor industry, it is insufficient to address construction costs and timelines.

Looking at the construction speed of the three major foundries in the United States, they have indeed all fallen behind their original targets. For instance, TSMC’s Arizona plant was delayed by a year, Intel’s Ohio plant was pushed from 2025 to the end of 2026, and Samsung’s Texas plant, due to not receiving chip bill subsidies, was also delayed to 2025.

As per research conducted by CSET on the construction of 635 semiconductor plants from 1990 to 2020, the average time from groundbreaking to production was 682 days globally. However, in the United States, the average was 736 days, significantly higher than the global average and second only to Southeast Asia’s 781 days.

In comparison, the construction speeds in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan are 654 days, 620 days, and 584 days, respectively, with Japan’s performance being quite remarkable. As for Europe and the Middle East, the average is 690 days, while in China, it is 701 days.

The report further indicates that in the 1990s and 2000s, foundries in the United States had a relatively faster construction speed, with an average time of about 675 days. However, by the 2010s, this time frame extended to 918 days.

Meanwhile, during the same period, the construction speed in China and Taiwan significantly accelerated, with average completion times of 675 days and 642 days, respectively.

Furthermore, the number of foundries in the United States has been declining, from 55 in the 1990s to 43 in the 2000s and 22 in the 2010s. In contrast, the construction speed of foundries in China has significantly accelerated, from 14 in the 1990s to 75 in the 2000s, and further to 95 in the 2010s.

Although China’s semiconductor technology is still in the catch-up phase, the construction of foundries positions it as a dominant force in the industry.

Stringent Regulations in the United States Lead to Slow Factory Construction Despite Favorable Conditions 

The report highlights seven key requirements for foundry construction: Large plots of land, low seismic activity, stable water supply, stable supply of electricity, talent, transportation infrastructure, and nearby land for co-location with key suppliers.

In these aspects, the United States outperforms Taiwan; however, the primary obstacle is regulatory issues.

Due to the unique federal structure of the United States, foundry construction must comply with federal, state, and local regulations, resulting in an exceptionally complex regulatory process. Additionally, environmental policies pose obstacles to foundry construction, particularly due to stringent requirements for environmental protection

The report suggests that to enhance the United States’ competitiveness in the global semiconductor industry, the government needs to streamline regulatory processes, eliminate redundant regulations, and establish expedited pathways to accelerate semiconductor industry construction projects.

Additionally, there should be an acceleration of environmental review processes and investment in the development of alternative materials to ensure sustainable semiconductor material supplies.

With the continued growth in global semiconductor demand, the construction speed and efficiency of US semiconductor fabs will directly impact its position in the global market.

To maintain its leading position, per the report, the United States urgently needs to take action to address this issue. Currently, it is unclear how much impact the delayed construction of semiconductor fabs by TSMC, Intel, and Samsung will have.

Read more

• [News] High Efficiency in TSMC Kumamoto Plant Construction Sets Stage for Potential Advanced Packaging Investment in Japan
• [News] TSMC Reportedly Announcing Kumamoto Plant 2 in Japan, while U.S. Subsidies Expected by End of March

(Photo credit: TSMC)