Apple’s product line is rumored to set for a significant upgrade. According to a report from Economic Daily News, the next-generation M4 and A18 processors, slated for iPads, MacBooks, and iPhones, are expected to increase the number of built-in AI computing cores, leading to a substantial growth in orders to TSMC. Consequently, TSMC’s production volume for its enhanced 3-nanometer process this year is forecasted to surge by over 50% compared to last year.

As per a report cited by the Economic Daily News, Apple, recognizing the significant AI trend, is not only significantly enhancing the AI computing power of the M3 and A17 processors this year, but also increasing the number and efficiency of AI computing cores in the next-generation M4 and A18 processors. The AI application adoption rate across all product lines is expected to greatly increase.

Apple is strengthening the AI computing performance of its terminal devices and significantly increasing the computational power of its in-house processors, resulting in a simultaneous substantial increase in orders to TSMC.

The report further cited sources indicating that Apple’s orders for TSMC’s enhanced 3nm process this year are rumored to increase by over 50% compared to last year, solidifying its position as TSMC’s largest customer.

In addition to increasing orders for TSMC’s wafer production, reportedly, Apple has also secured a significant amount of advanced packaging capacity from TSMC. Industry sources cited by the Economic Daily News has indicated that Apple primarily places orders with TSMC for advanced packaging processes such as InFO and CoWoS, which are 2.5D advanced packaging technologies.

This year, there is a possibility that Apple will push its advanced packaging requirements to the highest price and difficulty level, such as the 3D structure SoIC advanced packaging.

TSMC, reportedly, is expanding its production capacity for the 3nm family and advanced packaging this year to meet the large orders from major clients such as Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD in the coming years.

As per TrendForce’s data, the 3nm process alone contributed 6% to TSMC’s Q3 revenue, with advanced processes (≤7nm) accounting for nearly 60% of its total revenue.

TSMC had previously announced during its earnings call that its capital budget for this year is expected to fall between USD 28 billion to USD 32 billion, with 70% to 80% allocated for advanced processes, 10% to 20% for specialty processes, and the remaining 10% for advanced packaging, testing, and mask production.

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• [News] NVIDIA Expands Advanced Packaging Supply Chain with Intel’s Inclusion, Diverting Orders from TSMC
• [News] TSMC’s Primary Client for 2nm Chips Expected to be Apple, Set to Debut with iPhone 17 Lineup Next Year

(Photo credit: TSMC)

The battle for Apple’s iPhone manufacturing orders has entered a new phase this year. According to a report from Economic Daily News, while Foxconn still appears poised to dominate, with expectations to assemble over half of the iPhone 16 series, maintaining its lead; Luxshare, a key supplier in the supply chain, has swiftly risen to challenge, surpassing Pegatron to become the second-largest iPhone manufacturer.

With Luxshare’s share continuing to rise this year and the emergence of India’s Tata Group as a new contender, it is expected that the competition for iPhone manufacturing orders this year will be characterized by one leader, two strong contenders, and one new challenger.

In 2023, Apple launched the iPhone 15 series, with over 60% of the assembly orders handled by Foxconn, while Luxshare’s order share continued to rise, surpassing Pegatron last year to become the second-largest iPhone assembler. With Pegatron transferring the lead of its Kunshan factory in China to Luxshare at the end of last year, Luxshare’s order share is expected to continue increasing.

To retain its crucial Chinese market and further reduce costs, per a report from Economic Daily News, Apple has allowed Luxshare to continuously increase its share of Apple orders in recent years. Luxshare’s assembly products is anticipated to cover iPhone, Apple Watch, and the recently launched Vision Pro—a headset exclusively manufactured by Luxshare. Luxshare has then become a prominent supplier within the Apple supply chain in China.

The report further indicated that this year’s iPhone 16 series orders are expected to be predominantly secured by Foxconn Group, accounting for over 50% of the share. Luxshare ranks second, while Pegatron’s share is expected to decrease to third place. The proportion of Tata Group’s new device orders remains to be seen.

As Luxshare continues to expand its presence in the iPhone assembly domain, Tata Group, after taking over Wistron’s iPhone assembly plant in India, continues to improve overall production efficiency. By leveraging the advantages of being a local manufacturer in India, Luxshare’s presence in the iPhone assembly supply chain is expected to continue to rise in the future.

The report also mentioned that Tata Group is in negotiations with Pegatron to jointly establish an iPhone assembly plant in Hosur city, Tamil Nadu, in southern India. This would be marked as Tata Group’s first venture into this business through a joint venture.

Reportedly, it is suggested that Tata will hold the majority stake in the joint venture, while Pegatron will provide technical and engineering support for the Hosur city plant to help accelerate the construction process. Pegatron declined to comment on this matter.

In the past, Wistron Group’s factory in Karnataka, India, primarily produced older models of the iPhone. This factory has been sold to Tata Group. Market observers note that if the joint venture between Pegatron and Tata Group in Hosur city materializes, it will help Tata Group to expedite its entry into the production of new iPhone models.

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• [News] Tata Group Plans to Build New iPhone Assembly Plant in India, Aligning with Apple’s Localization Strategy for the Supply Chain
• [News] Luxshare Acquires Leadership of Pegatron’s Kunshan Plant, Challenging Foxconn’s Dominance on iPhone Assembly?

(Photo credit: Apple)

The demand for Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML serves as a trend indicator for the industry. The company optimistically stated in its annual report that the chip industry has hit rock bottom and is beginning to show signs of recovery. However, it also cautioned that geopolitical tensions and the potential expansion of US export controls on China remain operational risks.

ASML’s Chief Financial Officer, Roger Dassen, stated in the annual report for 2023 released on the 14th, “We believe that the market has now reached the lowest point of the dip, and although we cannot predict the exact nature of the slope ahead, the recovery is nascent.”

He further pointed out, “The longer-term trends are unmistakable – artificial intelligence, electrification, and the energy transition are happening,” which bodes well for ASML’s business.

However, the ASML annual report mentioned, “The list of Chinese entities impacted by export control restrictions has increased since 2022,” and “The list of restricted customers and the scope of the restrictions were subject to change.”

According to TrendForce’s analysis, while Chinese semiconductor fabs will be unable to purchase NXT:2000i series tools and newer from 2024 onwards, they will still have access to older models like the NXT1980i. This allows them to continue expanding their capacity for manufacturing processes of 28nm and above.

In last month’s financial report announcement, ASML indicated that it anticipates export controls from both the United States and the Netherlands to result in a decrease of approximately 10% to 15% in sales of its mid-range DUV equipment to China this year.

Regarding the 2023 record of ASML’s DUV sales, Dassen also explained in the interview accompanying the financial report that the strong performance in China’s business in 2023 actually stemmed from orders placed at the end of 2022, with the execution of these orders taking place in 2023.

In 2023, China surpassed South Korea to become ASML’s second-largest market, accounting for 26.3% of sales, while Taiwan maintained its leading position with sales accounting for 29.3%.

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• [News] Despite U.S. Semiconductor Export Restrictions, ASML Reports Doubling of Revenue Share from China in 2023
• [News] ASML Reports Partial Revocation of Export Licenses for DUV Equipment

(Photo credit: ASML)

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has announced on February 5th that the Commerce Department would distribute substantial subsidies to chipmakers investing in the US within the next two months. The subsidy recipients are expected to include companies like TSMC and Intel.

As per a report from Reuters, Raimondo discussed the progress of subsidies under the US CHIPS and Science Act. “We’re in the process of really complicated, challenging negotiations with these companies. In the next six to eight weeks, you will see several more announcements. That’s what we’re striving for,” she stated.

Raimondo did not specify which chipmakers she is negotiating with, but she mentioned in an interview cited by Reuters,”These are highly complex, first-of-their-kind facilities. The kind of facilities that TSMC, Samsung, Intel are proposing to do in the United States — these are new-generation investments — size, scale complexity that’s never been done before in this country.”

Last month, as per Bloomberg cited industry sources in a report, plans for the United States to announce substantial chip subsidies by the end of March are revealed, targeting companies such as TSMC and Intel. The US CHIPS and Science Act reportedly includes a USD 39 billion manufacturing subsidy, providing 15% of the total cost for each independent project. Each fab can receive up to USD 3 billion in subsidies, along with loans, loan guarantees, and tax exemptions.

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• [News] TSMC Reportedly Announcing Kumamoto Plant 2 in Japan, while U.S. Subsidies Expected by End of March
• [News] Subsidies from the U.S. Legislation “NAPMP” Potentially Expected to Cover IC Substrates

(Photo credit: TSMC)

China’s leading semiconductor foundry, SMIC International, announced its fourth-quarter financial results on February 6th. While the quarter’s revenue exceeded expectations, a significant drop in gross margin led to a sharp decrease in net profit by less than 50% to below USD 1 billion last year.

SMIC issued a warning, further revising down the gross margin for the first quarter of this year to around 10%, with single-digit figures at the lower end.

During the fourth quarter, SMIC International saw a revenue increase of over 3.5% to more than USD 1.678 billion, marking the only quarter of revenue growth last year. Net profit plummeted by 54.7% to nearly USD 175 million.

The gross margin of 16.4% was almost halved compared to the same period in 2022 and experienced a significant decline from the previous three quarters, reaching its lowest point of the year.

In the full year of 2023, SMIC International experienced a revenue decline of over 13% to USD 6.3 billion, with a net profit decrease of 50.4% to USD 900 million. The gross margin was approximately halved to 19.3%.

Regarding the decline in net profit, SMIC cited various factors including the industry downturn, weak market demand, high industry inventory, and fierce competition among peers, all contributing to reduced capacity utilization and decreased wafer shipment for the group.

Additionally, the group experienced a period of high investment during the financial reporting period, leading to increased depreciation compared to the previous year.

Looking ahead to the first quarter of this year, SMIC estimates a quarter-on-quarter revenue growth of up to 2%. For the first-quarter gross margin guidance, SMIC has provided a range of 9% to 11%, indicating a decrease of approximately 33% to 45% from the low point of 16.4% in the fourth quarter of last year.

SMIC also anticipates that, under the assumption of no significant changes, this year’s revenue growth will not be lower than the average of comparable peers, showing a mid-single-digit increase compared to last year. The capital expenditure scale is expected to remain roughly flat compared to last year.

The significant downward revision in gross margin guidance has drawn attention to SMIC’s strategic moves. According to a report by the Financial Times, SMIC is intensifying its collaboration with Huawei by establishing a new production line in Shanghai dedicated to producing chips for Huawei’s future flagship smartphones, focusing on the 5-nanometer process.

However, industry sources cited by the report have also indicated that SMIC’s prices for 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer processes are 40% to 50% higher than TSMC’s, and the yield less than one-third of TSMC’s.

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• [News] Over 350 China’s Semiconductor Industry Projects Thriving in 2023

(Photo credit: SMIC)