SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung expressed optimism at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in the United States, stating that artificial intelligence (AI) chips would propel SK Hynix’s market value to double within three years, reaching KRW 200 trillion (approximately USD 152 billion).

Kwak also revealed plans to adjust the DRAM production reduction policy in the first quarter, while anticipating changes in NAND Flash production strategy in the latter half of the year.

At the CES exhibition in Las Vegas, Kwak emphasized that generative AI is gradually becoming widespread, and memories are increasingly crucial. With the advancement of AI systems, customer demands for memory will become more diverse. Kwak highlighted the development of a platform to offer customized options for various customers.

“If we prepare the products we are currently producing well, pay attention to maximising investment efficiency and maintaining financial soundness, I think we can attempt to double the current market capitalisation of 100 trillion won to 200 trillion won within three years,” Kwak said.

Kwak further stated in the CES: “There are only three HBM providers in the market. What I can say for sure is that SK Hynix is a clear leader in the HBM space.”

For the current HBM market, as reported by TrendForce earlier, SK hynix holds the lead in HBM3 production, serving as the principal supplier for NVIDIA’s server GPUs.

Samsung, on the other hand, is focusing on satisfying orders from other CSPs. The gap in market share between Samsung and SK hynix is expected to narrow significantly in 2023 due to an increasing number of orders for Samsung from CSPs. Both firms are predicted to command similar shares in the HBM market sometime between 2023 to 2024—collectively occupying around 95%.

Meanwhile, when asked if SK Hynix would ease its current chip production reduction policy, Kwak responded that the company’s policies are flexible and will be adjusted based on different product categories.

He mentioned that SK Hynix might change its DRAM production reduction policy in the first quarter, while adjustments for NAND Flash are anticipated to take place in the latter half of the year.

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(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

Due to consumer spending pressures this year, the smartphone market is not as robust as before. With Apple facing strained relations with China, market sentiment continues to be pessimistic about Apple’s prospects.

Recently, citing from a report from Jefferies Financial Group’s analyst, Bloomberg stated that the sales volume of Apple’s latest products in China is expected to decline by 30% compared to last year in 2024, potentially experiencing a double-digit decline for the whole year.

The Wall Street Journal once reported that last year, the Chinese government announced its restriction on officials using iPhones, with at least eight provinces instructing officials to cease using iPhones.

This restriction not only applies to government agencies but also extends to state-owned enterprises, including large entities in China’s power generation, harbor construction, mining, manufacturing, education, and investment markets.

In addition to political restrictions, Apple is also facing pressure from Chinese competitor Huawei. Analysts from Jefferies Financial Group previously stated that sales of Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro surpassed the iPhone 15.

In 2023, Huawei held the highest market share in the Chinese smartphone market, growing by approximately 6% compared to the same period in 2022, while Apple’s market share in China declined by 4% year-on-year.

Patriotic Enthusiasm Supports Local Smartphone Brands

Driven by “patriotic enthusiasm,” according to Jefferies’ estimation, Huawei’s smartphone shipments last year reached 35 million units, falling below the expected 40 million, possibly due to constraints in component supplies.

The Huawei Mate 60 Pro features a SMIC-manufactured 7nm processor tailor-made for the domestic market. Huawei continues to develop and expand its HarmonyOS operating system, competing with iOS and Android.

Yet, according to MacDailyNews, Huawei has allegedly exaggerated the capabilities of the Mate 60. In reality, its processor specifications lag behind Apple by several generations.

The “Kirin 9000S” is a 7nm chip, with a Geekbench 6 single-core score of 1,267 and a multi-core score of 3,533. In comparison, Apple’s A17 Pro features a 3nm chip, scoring 2,902 in Geekbench 6 single-core and 7,221 in multi-core tests.

The Huawei Mate 60 falls behind even Apple’s entry-level third-generation iPhone SE. The latter is equipped with the 5nm A15 Bionic chip from September 2021, scoring 2,237 in Geekbench 6 single-core and 5,173 in multi-core tests.

Smartphone Price Reduction Fails to Boost Sales

To salvage the market, iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max witnessed a substantial 16% price reduction on the Pinduoduo e-commerce platform during the first week of 2024, with similar discount levels observed in December. However, analysts from Jefferies believe that these discounts will not stimulate sales growth.

As iPhone sales constitute approximately 52% of Apple’s total revenue, China has consistently represented Apple’s most crucial international market.

In the face of the competitive pressure in the Chinese market this year, TrendForce analysis suggests that Huawei’s successful sales will exert sales pressure on Apple, which also targets the high-end market in China.

Therefore, TrendForce is not optimistic about the production forecast for Apple in 2024, estimating the annual production volume to be around 215-225 million, slightly lower or flat compared to the previous year.

In terms of regional market operations, Apple continues to increase its production share in India, aiming to offset the lost market share in China through the growth of the high-end market in India. It is estimated that by 2025, the production share in India will further increase to 25-30%.

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(Photo credit: Huawei)

During CES 2024, NVIDIA announced that four Chinese electric vehicle brands will adopt its autonomous driving chip platform. According to a report from IJIWEI, this move has showed NVIDIA’s potential intention to expand in China, despite facing stricter export controls from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The four automakers include Li Auto, Great Wall Motor (GWM), ZEEKR, and Xiaomi, all set to utilize NVIDIA’s DRIVE technology solution to support autonomous driving capabilities.

The NVIDIA DRIVE platform encompasses automotive sensors, computing platforms, hardware and software for autonomous driving development, as well as DGX servers for artificial intelligence (AI) training.

NVIDIA has stated in the release that Li Auto selected the NVIDIA DRIVE Thor in-vehicle computer, featuring two DRIVE Orin processors with a computing power of 508 trillion operations per second (TOPS). This setup enables real-time fusion of information from various sensors, driving advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), and a comprehensive autonomous driving system for all scenarios.

Furthermore, GWM, ZEEKR, and Xiaomi have adopted the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin platform to power their intelligent autonomous driving systems.

GWM mentioned that its autonomously developed high-end intelligent driving system, Coffee Pilot, based on the DRIVE Orin platform, supports intelligent navigation and assisted driving functions across all scenarios without the need for high-precision maps.

Xiaomi’s first car, SU7, will be built on a dual DRIVE Orin configuration, with the assisted driving system incorporating Xiaomi’s in-house large-language perception and decision-making model, adaptable to various roads nationwide.

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• [News] NVIDIA Expands Autonomous Driving Team in China, Actively Recruiting Talent

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

In June 2023, Apple introduced its inaugural spatial computing device, the Apple Vision Pro, entering the mixed reality (MR) landscape. On January 8th, 2024, Apple revealed on its official website that the Vision Pro would be available for pre-orders in the United States starting January 19th, with an official release date of February 2nd.

According to Apple’s official news release, Apple’s CEO Tim Cook has indicated as follows: “The era of spatial computing has arrived. Apple Vision Pro is the most advanced consumer electronics device ever created. Its revolutionary and magical user interface will redefine how we connect, create, and explore.”

In June 2023, at the WWDC (Worldwide Developers Conference), Apple unveiled its head-worn device, the Vision Pro, priced at USD 3,499. This cost is over three times the price of Meta’s high-end virtual reality (VR) model, the Quest Pro, at that time.

To bolster the ecosystem behind Vision Pro in the realm of mixed reality, Apple has made comprehensive preparations. In June of last year, the company announced the launch of new software tools and technologies, enabling developers to craft app experiences tailored for Vision Pro. Additionally, Apple established developer labs in California, London, Munich, Shanghai, Singapore, and Tokyo.

Considering factors such as pricing and the absence of certain essential features, TrendForce has previously anticipated a modest shipment volume of approximately 200,000 – 400,000 units for Apple Vision Pro in 2024.

The market’s response will heavily depend on the subsequent introduction of consumer-oriented Apple Vision models and the ability of Apple to offer enticing everyday AR functionalities that will drive the rapid growth of the AR market as a whole.

TrendForce also noted that the Apple Vision Pro boasts cutting-edge hardware specifications and innovative design. However, a substantial price tag of USD 3,499 and the requirement for an external power source to operate for a mere two hours pose challenges to consumer adoption.

Currently, the Apple Vision Pro lacks sufficient applications for mainstream users, making it more attractive to developers and enterprise customers who can capitalize on its innovative features to create diverse applications. Consequently, the higher price point of the product is justified.

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• [News] Apple Reportedly Accelerates Production of MR Headset “Vision Pro” for Potential February Launch
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(Photo credit: Apple)

ASML, a key chipmaking equipment supplier, is reported to have its incoming CEO, Christophe Fouquet, visiting Taiwan soon. According to Commercial Times citing from supply chain sources, it’s suggested that he will meet with TSMC and other related suppliers to discuss next-generation EUV equipment.

In 2008, Christophe Fouquet joined ASML, holding various management positions. He currently serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer. In April, he will succeed CEO Peter Wennink, who has held the position since July 2013, upon Wennink’s retirement at the completion of his term.

The high-level visit from ASML’s management to TSMC raises questions about whether it pertains to potential orders for the new “High-NA EUV” (High Numerical Aperture Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography System). TSMC has yet to confirm this, but the company is exploring various possibilities, including investments in advanced packaging.

Industry sources indicate that the cost of High-NA EUV exceeds USD 300 million. Considering the cost-effectiveness balance, TSMC is not in a hurry to adopt it. The primary reason is the imminent need to establish a plant in the United States. It is estimated that future capital expenditures will significantly lean towards expanding production facilities overseas.

Under the U.S. chip export restrictions, ASML halted the shipment of EUV equipment to China in 2019. Under continued pressure from the U.S., the company recently canceled some shipments of Deep Ultraviolet Lithography equipment (DUV) to China.

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• [News] Intel Secures First High-NA EUV Equipment, Threatening TSMC’s Position?
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(Photo credit: ASML)