TSMC’s foundry in Kumamoto, Japan, has been completed. Currently, the tool-in is underway, with a grand opening ceremony scheduled for February 24^th, 2024.

Following this, trial production will commence, with mass production expected by the year-end. The Taiwanese semiconductor supply chain is optimistic about TSMC’s continued investment in local facilities, with plans for establishing service points in Japan.

According to reports from Japanese news source Kyodo News, TSMC’s Kumamoto plant is operated by its Japanese subsidiary, Jasm. Construction commenced in April 2022, with a 24-hour rush to completion. The office building facilities were inaugurated in August 2023, and the four-story, two-basement fab was also completed by the end of last year. The cleanroom’s total area, where production takes place, is approximately 45,000 square meters.

After the grand opening ceremony of TSMC’s Kumamoto plant, trial production will begin, with mass production scheduled by the end of this year. The plant aims to produce 22/28nm and 12/16nm process chips, targeting a monthly capacity of 55,000 wafers. Joint venture partners at the facility include Sony’s subsidiary Sony Semiconductor Solutions and Denso.

According to Japanese media Nikkei Asia, TSMC is currently assessing the construction of a second plant in Kumamoto. The estimated total investment for this new facility is around JPY 2 trillion, and the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry is considering a subsidy of approximately JPY 900 billion, surpassing the amount for the first plant. TSMC plans to utilize the Kumamoto Fab 2 for the production of 6nm chips. There is potential for further investment in a third plant in the future.

As per a report from Liberty Times Net, with optimism for TSMC’s opportunities in Japan, Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain is establishing service points in the country.

Cleanroom and MEP (Mechanical, Electrical, Plumbing) integration engineering service provider, Marketech International Corp., has set up a subsidiary in Japan to cater to major clients. Topco Scientific Co. has established SHUNKAWA CO., LTD. in Japan and a branch in Kumamoto to offer specialized chemical warehouse services to major clients.

Analytical testing facility, MA-tek, established a lab in Nagoya over four years ago and expanded with a second lab in Kumamoto last September due to increased demand. Following suit, MSSCORPS Co. plans to establish a testing and analytical center in Tokyo, Japan.

Read more

• [News] TSMC’s Kumamoto Plant Production Capacity Set for Significant Leap, Gradually Increasing to 55,000 Wafers per Month
• [News] Rumored to Build Third Plant in Kumamoto, TSMC: Currently Focusing on Assessing the Construction of a Second Plant

(Photo credit: TSMC)

In late December 2023, Apple faced sales suspension of certain Apple Watch models in the United States due to concerns over patent infringement with Masimo’s blood oxygen detection technology.

Despite Apple’s appeal for reinstatement, regulatory authorities will review updated designs presented in mid-January 2024 to determine whether sales suspension persists. The potential financial and time costs associated with settlement or redesign may prompt Apple to reassess the necessity of incorporating blood oxygen detection.

TrendForce’s insight:       

Apple and Masimo’s Prolonged Legal Battle Set to Conclude in Mid-January 2024, Verdict on Blood Oxygen Monitoring Patent Infringement

Since the introduction of the S6 in 2020, Apple Watch has featured blood oxygen monitoring technology, addressing the demand for detecting hidden hypoxia and hypoxemia, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many smartwatches released during the same period also incorporated this functionality.

The blood oxygen monitoring technology in Apple Watch utilizes traditional pulse oximetry. The built-in sensor consists of red, green, infrared LEDs, and a photodiode sensors that converts light into electric current.

In essence, the technology relies on shining light onto wrist blood vessels to capture data on the difference between oxygenated and deoxygenated blood. Algorithms are then employed to determine the blood oxygen content.

Hence, this technology involves not only software-related analytical applications but also hardware configurations and usage considerations.

In fact, the infringement dispute between Apple and Masimo has been ongoing. Since 2020, Masimo has accused Apple of patent infringement. The legal battle continued until October 2023 when the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) ruled in favor of Masimo, determining that Apple had indeed infringed. Consequently, in late 2023, a sales ban was imposed on certain models of Apple watches.

Despite Apple’s appeal allowing them to resume sales, regulatory authorities will reassess Apple’s redesigned models in mid-January 2024 to determine if improvements have been made.

Currently, the most severe impact of the ban is on models with blood oxygen functionality from the S6 onwards, including the S8, while only the SE series, without this feature, remains unaffected.

Diminished Need for Blood Oxygen Monitoring in Temporal Context – Apple May Reconsider Necessity

Given the current situation, there are several possible developments. Firstly, Apple may reapply for approval of a redesigned model by regulatory authorities, allowing them to resume sales after making necessary adjustments.

However, this approach involves not only software modifications but also hardware changes, encompassing testing, review processes, and relaunching, which could take several months. Considering Apple’s usual product release schedule in September each year, the company faces significant time pressure.

Secondly, Apple may opt for a settlement with Masimo. In the past, Apple has resolved disputes over chip technology and intentional slowdown of older devices with Qualcomm and in collective lawsuits with users.

However, settlement amounts were substantial, approximately $4.5 billion with Qualcomm and potentially up to $500 million in the case of collective user lawsuits. Compared to Apple Watch’s annual revenue in 2023, which may not have reached $20 billion, such outcomes may be less favorable for Apple.

If Apple cannot bypass Masimo’s patent through updates, settlement and payment of ongoing patent fees may become a necessary consideration. However, this to some extent may prompt Apple to reevaluate the necessity of the blood oxygen monitoring feature.

After all, for smartwatches equipped with blood oxygen monitoring is intended for health, not medical purposes. Besides Withings’ products, most smartwatches with this feature have not obtained approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In other words, they cannot be used for medical purposes.

While having more features at the same price would enhance the product value for consumers, the current context of the post-pandemic era and Apple’s user loyalty suggest that the demand for additional functionalities may vary.

If Apple does not intend to further integrate blood oxygen data with other physiological data, there might be room to reconsider the necessity of redeveloping the technology and the continued existence of the blood oxygen monitoring feature in future Apple Watches. The value of incorporating such functionality may be subject to greater flexibility in this scenario.

Read more

• [News] Apple Reportedly Accelerates Production of MR Headset “Vision Pro” for Potential February Launch
• [News] Apple Could Introduce Micro LED into Vision Pro, Replacing Existing Micro OLED Technology

(Photo credit: Apple)

In the intense battle of AI chips between NVIDIA and AMD this year, AMD’s MI300 has entered mass production and shipment 1H24, gaining positive adoption from clients. In response, NVIDIA is gearing up to launch upgraded AI chips. TSMC emerges as the big winner by securing orders from both NVIDIA and AMD.

Industry sources have revealed optimism as NVIDIA’s AI chip shipment momentum is expected to reach around 3 million units this year, representing multiple growth compared to 2023.

With the production ramp-up of the AMD MI300 series chips, the total number of AI high-performance computing chips from NVIDIA and AMD for TSMC in 2024 is anticipated to reach 3.5 million units. This boost in demand is expected to contribute to the utilization rate of TSMC’s advanced nodes.

According to a report from the Economic Daily News, TSMC has not commented on rumors regarding customers and orders.

Industry sources have further noted that the global AI boom ignited in 2023, and 2024 continues to be a focal point for the industry. A notable shift from 2023 is that NVIDIA, which has traditionally dominated the field of high-performance computing (HPC) in AI, is now facing a challenge from AMD’s MI300 series products, which have begun shipping, intensifying competition for market share.

Reportedly, the AMD MI300A series products have commenced mass production and shipment this quarter. The central processing unit (CPU) and graphics processing unit (GPU) tile are manufactured using TSMC’s 5nm process, while the IO tile use TSMC’s 6nm process.

These chips are integrated through TSMC’s new System-on-Integrated-Chip (SoIC) and Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) advanced packaging technologies. Additionally, AMD’s MI300X, which does not integrate the CPU, is also shipping simultaneously.

Compared to NVIDIA’s GH200, which integrates CPU and GPU, and the H200, focusing solely on GPU computation, AMD’s new AI chip performance exceeds expectations. It offers a lower price and a high cost-performance advantage, attracting adoption by ODMs.

In response to strong competition from AMD, NVIDIA is upgrading its product line. Apart from its high-demand H200 and GH200, NVIDIA is expected to launch new products such as B100 and GB200, utilizing TSMC’s 3nm process, by the end of the year.

Read more

• [News] Nvidia vs. AMD, the Expensive Duel as Two Major Buyers Opt for AMD’s Latest AI GPU
• [News] TSMC’s CoWoS Demand Surges from NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, Monthly Capacity Up 120% in 2024

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

Intel recently announced that it has acquired the market’s first ASML Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) exposure equipment with a 0.55 Numerical Aperture (High-NA), aiming to advance its chip manufacturing technology in the coming years. In contrast, TSMC appears to be taking a more cautious approach, currently showing no urgency to join the race for this next-generation exposure technology.

The High-NA EUV exposure equipment obtained by Intel will initially be used for learning and mastering the technology, with plans to implement it in the Intel 18A process node in the next two to three years. 

Industry sources suggest that unlike Intel’s plan to introduce High-NA EUV and GAA transistors simultaneously in the Intel 18A process technology, it is anticipated that TSMC may not adopt this technology until the 1.4nm (A14) node, possibly in 2030 or later.

According to a report from IThome, in fact, Intel’s proactive development roadmap includes implementing the RibbonFET gate-all-around (GAA) transistor architecture and PowerVia backside power delivery technology starting from the Intel 20A process.

Subsequently, further optimizations are expected in the Intel 18A process, followed by the adoption of High-NA EUV exposure equipment in subsequent process nodes after Intel 18A. These advancements is anticipated to achieve lower power consumption, higher performance, and smaller chip sizes.

In addition, Intel plans to introduce pattern shaping starting from the 20A process, followed by the adoption of High-NA EUV after the 18A node. This approach is expected to reduce the complexity of the manufacturing process and avoid the use of EUV double patterning.

However, some professionals in the industry have stated that, at least in the initial stages, the cost of High-NA EUV may be higher than that of Low-NA EUV. Furthermore, High-NA EUV lithography equipment present a series of specific challenges too, including a halving of the exposure area.

These are two of the reasons why TSMC is currently adopting a cautious approach. TSMC tends to favor the use of cost-effective mature technologies to ensure product competitiveness.

In fact, If we look back at the development of EUV technology, TSMC began using EUV exposure equipment in chip production as early as 2019, a few months later than Samsung but several years ahead of Intel. Currently, Intel is expected to take the lead in the High-NA EUV field ahead of Samsung and TSMC to gain a certain technological and strategic advantage, increasing its appeal to customers.

Therefore, whether TSMC can maintain its leading position in process technology, especially if it adopts High-NA EUV exposure machines later than competitors, remains subject to ongoing observation.

Read more

• [News] EUV as a Strategic Asset in the Most Advanced Processes: Progress in Intel/TSMC/Samsung’s Adoptions
• [Insights] Analysis of the Global Photoresist Market in 2023

(Photo credit: ASML)

In order to comply with new regulations on the export of chips to the United States, NVIDIA has been consistently releasing AI chips and graphics cards tailored for the Chinese market.

However, according to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal, since November 2023, major cloud service provider (CSP) in China such as Alibaba and Tencent have been testing samples of NVIDIA’s special chips. These Chinese enterprises have conveyed to NVIDIA that the quantity of chips they plan to order in 2024 will be significantly lower than their initial plans.

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, in October 2023, the United States announced new regulations preventing NVIDIA from selling advanced AI chips to China. However, NVIDIA swiftly developed a “special edition” chip for China, allowing them to continue selling chips in the Chinese market without violating regulations.

Nevertheless, NVIDIA is facing another challenge: major Chinese CSPs are not actively purchasing the “downgraded” performance versions of the chips.

Chinese enterprises have been testing the highest-performance version, H20, of NVIDIA’s “special edition” AI chips. Some testers have mentioned that this chip enables efficient data transfer among multiple processors, making it a better choice than domestic alternatives for building chip clusters required for processing AI computational workloads.

However, testers also indicate that they need more H20 to compensate for the performance gap compared to previous NVIDIA chips, which increases their costs.

The report indicates that in the short term, the performance advantage of NVIDIA’s “downgraded” chips over domestic Chinese products is diminishing, making Chinese-made chips increasingly attractive to buyers.

Informed sources cited from the report suggest that major players like Alibaba and Tencent are redirecting some advanced semiconductor orders to domestic companies and relying more on internally developed chips. This trend is also observed with the other two major chip buyers, Baidu and ByteDance.

Looking ahead in the long term, Chinese customers are uncertain about NVIDIA’s ability to continue supplying them with chips, as U.S. regulatory authorities have committed to regularly reviewing chip export controls, potentially tightening restrictions on chip performance further.

From the perspective of China’s efforts in the independent development of AI chips, TrendForce previously highlighted in its press release that Chinese CSPs like Baidu and Alibaba are actively investing in autonomous AI chip development.

Baidu developed its first self-researched ASIC AI chip, Kunlunxin, in early 2020, with its second generation scheduled for mass production in 2021 and the third expected to launch in 2024. Post-2023, Baidu aimed to use Huawei’s Ascend 910B acceleration chips and expand the use of Kunlunxin chips for its AI infrastructure.

After Alibaba’s acquisition of CPU IP supplier Zhongtian Micro Systems in April 2018 and the establishment of T-Head Semiconductor in September of the same year, the company began developing its own ASIC AI chips, including the Hanguang 800.

TrendForce reports that T-Head’s initial ASIC chips were co-designed with external companies like GUC. However, after 2023, Alibaba is expected to increasingly leverage its internal resources to enhance the independent design capabilities of its next-gen ASIC chips, primarily for Alibaba Cloud’s AI infrastructure.

According to the data from TrendForce, currently, around 80% of the high-end AI chips used by Chinese cloud computing companies are sourced from NVIDIA. However, in the next five years, this proportion may decrease to 50% to 60%.

Read more

• [News] NVIDIA’s China-exclusive Chip H20 to Begin Production in Q2 by Wistron
• China Continues to Enhance AI Chip Self-Sufficiency, but High-End AI Chip Development Remains Constrained, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)