TrendForce discloses the latest panel prices for early January, with details as follows.

• TV

Entering the first quarter of 2024, despite the onset of a demand downturn, panel manufacturers are persistently implementing large-scale production cuts and maintenance plans, aiming to create opportunities for a reversal in supply and demand for TV panels.

Currently, observations since December indicate that ter 2 brands have begun increasing inventory for 32″ and 43″ panels, with signs of price increases emerging.

Therefore, the anticipated trend for TV panel prices in January suggests that 32″ and 43″ panels may be the first to stabilize, while the price decline for larger-sized panels is expected to moderate. A projected decrease of $1 for 50″ and 55″, and a decrease of $2 for 65″ and 75″.

• MNT

Entering 2024, despite current weak demand, panel manufacturers are encouraging early stocking through production cuts and scheduled maintenance plans to seek opportunities for stabilizing monitor panel prices.

Additionally, with potential risks in shipping routes in the current challenging environment, some customers, particularly those focused on the European and American markets, are intensifying their inventory plans.

Therefore, in the price trend for monitor panels in January, mainstream sizes such as 23.8″ and 27″ are expected to decrease by $0.1 and $0.2 for Open-Cell panels. There is also the possibility of further contraction of the decline.

• NB

After entering the first quarter of 2024, there is a noticeable decline in demand for NB panels. Brands urgently request panel manufacturers to lower panel prices. Additionally, the lower prices from Tier 2 panel manufacturers contribute to the ongoing downward pressure on panel prices.

Observing the price trend for NB panels in January, for 16:10 models, brands are aiming to narrow the price gap with 16:9 models due to the higher unit price. As a result, the 14″ 16:10 model is expected to decrease by $0.2, and the 16″16:10 model is anticipated to experience a larger decline of $0.3.

The mainstream 16:9 IPS models are expected to decrease by $0.1, while 16:9 TN models are expected to remain relatively stable.

Read more

• [Insights] The Panel Prices in Late December: Declines in TV, Monitor, and NB Applications

In pursuit of big chip technology, a team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences has designed an advanced 256-core processor system based on 16 chiplets and aims to expand this design to a 1,600-core big chip.

With each new generation of chips, increasing transistor density becomes progressively challenging. Chip manufacturers are exploring various methods to enhance processor performance, including architectural innovations, larger die sizes, multi-chiplet designs, and wafer-scale chips.

In a recent research paper, the Institute of Computing Technology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences has introduced a 256-core multi-chiplet design and further explored wafer-scale methods, constructing a big chip using an entire wafer.

The team presented an advanced 256-CPU multi-chiplet, referred to as the Zhejiang Big Chip, in the paper. This design is composed of 16 chiplets, each housing 16 CPUs based on the RISC-V architecture.

These chiplets are interconnected in a traditional symmetric multiprocessor (SMP) manner through a network-on-chip, so the chiplets could share memory.

Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences stated that this design allows for scalability up to 100 chiplets (or 1,600-core).

Reports indicate that the chiplets are manufactured by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) using 22-nm process technology. However, the power consumption of a 1,600-core component interconnected by an interposer and manufactured using a 22-nm process is not specified.

Researchers have noted that the multi-chiplet design can be applied to supercomputer processors. Within each chiplet, multiple cores are interconnected with ultra-low latency. Additionally, advanced packaging technology benefits the communication between chiplets, minimizing delays and NUMA (Non-Uniform Memory Access) effects in highly scalable systems to the greatest extent possible.

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(Photo credit: SMIC)

TrendForce has released the latest PV spot price, revealing the supply and demand dynamics in the market. Polysilicon and Wafer prices have shown a divergence over the week, whereas Module and Cell prices have remained steady.

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 57/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 55/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 64/KG.

The top-tier polysilicon companies are in a positive transaction phase, having essentially wrapped up January 2024 orders. Some businesses are still in the negotiation phase.

Regarding order prices, N-type polysilicon has maintained stability, primarily fueled by increased N-type wafer output and heightened demand resulting from a shift in part of the P-type wafer production capacity to N-type wafers.

Conversely, P-type polysilicon prices have experienced fluctuations and a continued decline. On one hand, the newly added production capacity has yielded low-quality polysilicon, exacerbating the oversupply issue for P-type polysilicon.

On the other hand, diminishing downstream output of P-type wafers has impacted the demand for P-type polysilicon, contributing to its declining price. Looking at the supply side, the influx of new production capacity in January is steadily increasing polysilicon output, with a medium single-digit month-on-month growth rate.

On the demand side, crystal pulling manufacturers maintain a high activation rate, but the output of N-type crystal pulling is rapidly rising.

In summary, this month shows positive supply and demand dynamics for N-type polysilicon, providing robust support for its price. However, the outlook for P-type polysilicon is bleak due to the production of low-quality output from the newly added capacity, creating an imbalance in the demand and supply relationship.

The expectation is that the price gap between N-type and P-type polysilicon will widen. This week, the prices of rechargeable and dense polysilicon have further declined, while N-type polysilicon remains stable.

Wafer

The prices of wafer have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.90/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.00/Pc and M10 N-type is priced at RMB2.25/Pc.

Regarding P-type wafers, the pricing for 182mm and 210mm P-type wafers stands at 1.9 yuan and 3.0 yuan per piece, respectively, closely aligned with their cost structures. On the supply side, the swift shift of wafer manufacturers towards the production of N-type wafers has significantly diminished the output proportion of P-type wafers.

Concurrently, the shutdown of production capacities for downstream P-type cells on the demand side indicates a gloomy market for P-type products. Additionally, the stagnant price is attributed to low trading volumes, and P-type wafers have evolved into customized products, with their price trends and trading volumes contingent on the delivery of P-type projects.

Turning to N-type wafers, the supply side witnesses a double-digit increase in the output proportion of N-type wafers, projected to reach 70%. On the demand side, cell manufacturers are predominantly shifting towards N-type products, providing robust support for the demand for N-type wafers.

However, it is crucial to note the potential risk of increasing inventory for N-type wafers due to oversupply. There remains a possibility that the supply of N-type wafers will exceed demand, leading to fluctuations and a gradual decline in N-type wafer prices.

Moreover, concerning wafer sizes, rectangle wafers will dominate the N-type wafer market, and as the trading volume of various rectangle wafer sizes increases, we can expect more quoted prices for different sizes of N-type rectangle wafers. This week, the price of P-type wafers has remained unchanged, while the price of N-type modules has dropped to 2.1 yuan per piece.

Cell

Cell prices have remained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.37/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.38/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.46/W.

Concerning P-type cells, the pricing for 182mm and 210mm P-type cells is set at 0.37 yuan and 0.38 yuan per watt, respectively. Notably, P-type cell prices have dipped below the cost line, leading to the essentially complete shutdown of its production capacity. Once cell manufacturers complete the delivery of ongoing projects, the production capacity for P-type cells will be cleared out.

On the supply side, major cell manufacturers have extensively halted P-type production capacities, resulting in a sharp decline in P-type cell output. Additionally, the demand from module manufacturers for P-type cells is rapidly diminishing.

With a decrease in both supply and demand, P-type cell prices are currently at a standstill. Specialized manufacturers are taking the strategic approach of halting production and stockpiling inventory to maximize profits when delivering the remaining P-type products.

On the flip side, regarding N-type cells, the supply side sees a higher share of total cell output. However, on the cost front, the positive support from the prices of N-type polysilicon and wafers is aiding in stabilizing N-type cell prices.

On the demand side, there is a significant increase in customer demand. Consequently, N-type cell prices have remained stable this week, supported by a balanced combination of supply, demand, and cost factors.

Module

Module prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.98/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.00/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.00/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.01/W.

On the demand side, module manufacturers are experiencing a decline in the month-on-month growth rate of modules in January. With the conclusion of the last quarter’s earnings and the approach of the holiday season, both domestic and overseas demand have slowed down.

Module manufacturers are displaying a reduced inclination to boost output, opting to cut production to varying extents. The anticipated order amounts for January are relatively pessimistic on the demand side. Even top-tier manufacturers with existing orders supporting their production are witnessing a decreasing trend in order volume, let alone other manufacturers with fewer orders who find themselves compelled to cut or halt production.

Regarding domestic demand, January marks the off-season, and the purchasing demand for ground-based and distributed solar projects is at its lowest point for the entire year. However, overseas markets are showing signs of recovery, with a positive turn in month-on-month export volumes.

Furthermore, the continuous decline in module prices has spurred demand in the Indian market, while Brazil and Saudi Arabia experience a boom due to supportive government policies. Nevertheless, the export to the European market has not yet turned positive, and it will take time to deplete existing inventory and witness a recovery in demand. This week, both P-type and N-type module prices have remained stable.

Christian Koitzsch, former plant manager of Bosch’s semiconductor facility in Dresden, has transitioned to a new role as the president of TSMC’s European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ESMC).

Frank Bösenberg, the Managing Director of the Semiconductor Association “Silicon Saxony” in Dresden, confirmed on the professional networking platform LinkedIn that Christian Koitzsch, the former plant manager of Bosch Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in Dresden, has embarked on a new journey in the new year, assuming the role of president at the ESMC, a subsidiary of TSMC.

In Christian Koitzsch’s LinkedIn profile, he also has indicated that his current position is the President of the ESMC. He is expected to oversee the construction of TSMC’s new plant in Dresden, with groundbreaking anticipated in the latter half of this year.

Dr. Koitzsch holds a PhD in physics and has previously held various managerial positions at Bosch, a major automotive components manufacturer. In July 2021, he assumed the role of plant manager at Bosch’s semiconductor fab in Dresden before transitioning to his current role as the President of the ESMC.

Bosch’s 12-inch fab primarily produces chips for automotive applications and is renowned for its high level of automation, claiming to be the most advanced fab in Europe. The designated location for TSMC’s Dresden plant happens to be right next door.

In August of 2023, TSMC announced the establishment of a joint venture, the ESMC, in Dresden, Germany’s eastern region. TSMC holds a 70% stake, while European semiconductor companies such as Bosch, Infineon, and NXP each hold a 10% stake.

This is TSMC’s first manufacturing facility in Europe, scheduled to commence production by the end of 2027. The German government has approved a subsidy of EUR 5 billion, facilitating this investment project with a total amount exceeding EUR 10 billion (approximately USD 10.9 billion).

Read more

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• [Insights] In-Depth Analysis of TSMC, PSMC, and UMC’s Latest Overseas Expansion Strategies

(Photo credit: TSMC)

Low-price SSDs (Solid-state drives) may have become a thing of the past in 2024. The three major memory manufacturers are reportedly pushing up the prices of NAND Flash, leading to rumors of a 50% increase in prices for all SSDs as well. The successive hikes in NAND Flash prices by suppliers are already beginning to impact the end market.

Industry sources cited by ctee have indicated that at the beginning of 2024, there is a continuous stream of news regarding price increases for memory products. However, as of now, new transaction prices have not been observed, and the situation is being closely monitored.

Furthermore, sources cited by ctee also stipulate that, since reaching its lowest point in August 2023, NAND Flash prices have experienced a cumulative increase of approximately 40% to 90%.

Previously, significant losses in NAND Flash led manufacturers to actively reduce production and increase quotes. Currently, manufacturers have yet returned to a break-even condition. It is widely anticipated within the industry that the upward trend in NAND Flash prices will persist into the first quarter of 2024. The aim is to promptly raise prices and achieve a break-even point.

According to TrendForce’s previous estimates, the average quarterly increase in prices for Mobile DRAM and NAND Flash (eMMC/UFS) in the first quarter of 2024 is expected to expand to a range of 18% to 23%. Additionally, it is not ruled out that in a market characterized by limited competition or in situations where brand customers panic and engage in price chasing, the increase in prices could further escalate.

The upward trend in NAND prices has also led to an increase in the prices of storage products in the consumer end market. According to the latest information from the supply chain in China cited by the media outlet mydrivers, it’s reported that SSD products are experiencing their first price hike in nine quarters and manufacturers are planning to continue requesting price increases after 2024 Q1.

An industry source suggests that NAND manufacturers, facing losses, have been actively adjusting prices. Since these manufacturers also produce SSDs for their own brands, their own brands need to follow suit in price increases, potentially influencing the entire market.

Recent rumors have also claimed that the SSDs from memory manufacturers are set to increase by 50%, with some sources suggesting at least a 30% hike. Whether this is an tentative price adjustment or a market-driven price surge prompted by demand remains to be closely observed.

Read more

• Mobile DRAM and eMMC/UFS Prices to Surge 18–23% in 1Q24 as Smartphone Brands Continue Stockpiling, Says TrendForce
• [News] Market Anticipates a 50% Price Surge for NAND Flash in Short-Term

(Photo credit: Samsung)