In November 2023, China witnessed a remarkable 1050% surge in the import value of crucial chip manufacturing lithography equipment from the Netherlands, the primary exporter of photolithography equipment, according to the South China Morning Post.

This surge, measured in terms of value, indicates that Chinese semiconductor companies have managed to maintain a channel for ordering advanced equipment despite the tightened export restrictions imposed by the United States

Lithography equipment holds a paramount position among the ten types of equipment essential in the manufacturing process of integrated circuits (ICs).

Reportedly, despite substantial financial investments, China has been acknowledged to lag behind in this technology for many years. Despite allocating significant funds, the country has still struggled to narrow the gap with leading enterprises in this crucial aspect of IC manufacturing.

Meanwhile, in October, the U.S. Department of Commerce expanded its export control regulations on China, with the new provisions taking effect from November 2023.

These regulations specifically restrict the Dutch company ASML from selling certain immersion Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment to Chinese facilities engaged in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Consequently, China’s import of equipment has seen a consecutive surge for nearly two months.

In November, China imported 16 lithography equipment units from the Netherlands, valued at USD 762.7 Million, marking a tenfold year-on-year increase. By comparison, in October, China imported 21 lithography equipment units valued at USD 672.5 million, with an average price difference of 46% per unit.

In November of this year, China imported a total of 42 lithography equipment, valued at USD 816.8 million, including 15 units from Japan. When combined, the imports from the Netherlands and Japan accounted for almost the entire amount spent by China on lithography equipment in November.

In response to the U.S. restrictions, ASML’s CEO, Peter Wennink, previously stated that these limitations would exclude the vast majority of Chinese customers. This exclusion is due to the fact that these customers are involved in mature or traditional semiconductor manufacturing, specifically in the production of semiconductors at 28nm and above.

Jan-Peter Kleinhans, Senior Researcher and Head of Technology and Geopolitics Projects at the Berlin-based think tank “Stiftung Neue Verantwortung” (New Responsibility Foundation), mentioned that the impact on sales would not be immediate following the new U.S. restrictions.

As per the report from South China Morning Post, this is because ASML has a lead time of approximately 18 months. This implies that the equipment shipped in the fourth quarter of 2023 would have been ordered in the second or third quarter of 2022, and ASML would apply for export licenses at some point thereafter.

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(Photo credit: ASML)

TrendForce releases the latest memory spot prices, with DRAM showing limited price increases due to sluggish trading momentum. On the other hand, NAND Flash is affected by inventory dynamics, leading to a gradual elimination of the premium for 512Gb. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Market:

In the spot market, the price decline caused by used chips extracted from decommissioned modules has shown signs of easing. The overall price trend is now relatively stable. With the winter holidays in North America and Europe, spot trading activities have slowed down. However, due to the market consensus that contract prices will rise in 1Q24, some buyers are stocking up, resulting in relatively insignificant increases in spot prices. The average spot price of mainstream DRAM chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.34% from US$1.747 last week to US$1.753 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:

Several suppliers, having witnessed the price hike of wafers that lasted for a few consecutive months, are starting to release their stocks since this week. The previous destitution in product availability has thus been slight remedied. 512Gb is currently sitting on about US$3.2, and is approaching to its contract price under a slow dissipation in premium, with the focus of subsequent observations being whether purchase dynamics would further deteriorate. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 1.72% this week, arriving at US$3.128.

TSMC, the world’s leading foundry in the 3nm technology, is reportedly experiencing a surge in the number of New Tape-Outs (NTOs) for the 3nm family in 2024, with Clients such as MediaTek, AMD, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Intel.

Among the 3nm family, the N3P process, set for mass production in the second half of 2024, is also making significant progress. Rumors suggest that Tesla has been added to the list of customers, with plans to utilize the N3P for the production of next-generation Full Self-Driving (FSD) chips after its launch.

Currently, Tesla has placed orders with TSMC for numerous chips related to electric vehicles. For instance, the supercomputer chip “D1” is utilizing TSMC’s 7nm technology along with advanced packaging processes.

Reportedly, according to industry sources, Tesla’s older FSD chips were initially produced using Samsung’s 14nm process, later upgraded to Samsung’s 7nm process. Subsequently, considering design upgrades, production quality, and scale, Tesla has shifted its HW 4.0 autonomous driving chip production to TSMC, utilizing the 5nm technology family.

The latest information per the report indicates that Tesla has recently initiated a NTO process with TSMC, planning to utilize the N3P for the production of the fifth generation of self-driving vehicle chips. Market expectations are high, with the influx of relevant orders suggesting that Tesla has the potential to become one of TSMC’s major clients.

According to TSMC’s previously disclosed process roadmap, the N3P process is an advanced version within the 3nm family, scheduled for production in 2024. Compared to the N3E, the N3P boasts a 5% improvement in performance, a 5% to 10% reduction in power consumption, and a 1.04 times increase in chip density.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

South Korean media Businesskorea reports that Samsung Electronics Co. has postponed the production schedule for its new semiconductor plant in Taylor, Texas to 2025.

Citing a report from Seoul Economic Daily, Siyoung Choi, the President of Samsung’s semiconductor foundry business, mentioned during a speech in San Francisco that Samsung’s new Tyler Plant – with investment of USD 17 billion – is now expected to commence production in 2025.

Samsung’s initial projection, announced in 2021 when the investment plan was disclosed, had anticipated the Taylor plant to start its mass production in the second half of 2024.

Even before the news of Samsung’s Taylor plant production delay, TSMC’s Arizona fab, “Fab 21,” had already decided to postpone its mass production to 2025 due to tool-in and various labor-related issues.

Reportedly, the delays in production schedules for both TSMC and Samsung indicate that the new semiconductor fab of these two companies will not enter mass production until 2025.

As per the report, industry sources point out that issues such as environmental permit challenges and slow progress in government subsidy policies are major obstacles hindering the development of semiconductor projects in the United States.

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(Photo credit: Samsung)

The sales revenue of the 2023 semiconductor photoresist market is expected to decline by 6-9% year-on-year. With continuous improvement in downstream customer inventory and gradual recovery of production capacity, the semiconductor industry is expected to experience a revival in 2024, and demand for photoresists is also expected to rebound.

TrendForce has released its latest report, ‘Analysis of the Global Photoresist Market in 2023,’ analyzing the market conditions and competitive landscape of the photoresist market. Excerpts from the report are as follows:

1. Semiconductor Demand Expected to Rebound in 2024

With the ongoing improvement in downstream customer inventory, gradual recovery of production capacity utilization, and the maturation and surge in applications such as AI and smart automobiles, it is anticipated that the semiconductor industry will experience a revival in 2024.

The semiconductor photoresist market is also poised for a rebound, with market size returning to the historical peak of 2022 and further growing to surpass USD 2.8 billion by 2027.

2. High-End Photoresists Show Significant Growth Potential as Chinese and Korean Suppliers Strive for Localization Breakthroughs

With the sustained growth in demand for advanced processes, high-end photoresists such as EUV, ArFi/ArF, will continue to grow as well. In particular, EUV photoresists are poised for substantial growth as the industry pursues chips with increased computational power and energy efficiency.

The quantity of advanced chips produced using EUV technology is expected to surge significantly, making EUV photoresists the segment with the greatest growth potential in the semiconductor photoresist market. It is projected that by 2025, EUV photoresists will account for a 10% share of the market.

Due to the high barriers to entry in photoresist production, currently, Japanese manufacturers dominate the global photoresist market with a supply proportion of approximately 80%.

Particularly in advanced photoresist areas such as EUV, ArFi/ArF, major Japanese companies like JSR, TOK, and Shin-Etsu Chemical hold absolute dominance, and incidents of supply disruptions from Japanese photoresist suppliers are not uncommon.

In response to the risk of supply disruptions, both China and South Korea have actively promoted the localization of photoresist production. In South Korea, companies like Dongjin Semichem and SK Materials have made significant progress in the field of advanced photoresists, achieving domestic production of certain ArFi and EUV photoresists.

In China, the domestic production rate of photoresists in the mid-to-low-end range has reached 30%, and efforts in research and development are continually strengthening in the field of ArF and EUV photoresists. Partial import substitution has been achieved for ArF photoresists, and it is anticipated that the domestic production rate will gradually increase in the future.

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(Photo credit: Unsplash)