The highly anticipated 18th International Microsystems, Packaging, Assembly, and Circuits Technology Conference, also known as IMPACT 2023, took place with grandeur from October 25th to 27th at Hall 1 of Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center. This prestigious event was co-organized by leading institutions in the fields of electronics, including IEEE Electronics Packaging Society (IEEE EPS) – Taipei, International Microelectronics Assembly and Packaging Society (iMAPS) – Taiwan, Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), and the Taiwan Printed Circuit Association (TPCA). Under the overarching theme of “IMPACT on the Future of HPC, AI, and Metaverse,” the conference delved deep into the realm of cutting-edge IC packaging and circuit board technologies that are specifically tailored for next-generation applications in HPC, AI, and the Metaverse.

At the opening ceremony, Dr. Wei-Chung Lo, the Chair of IMPACT 2023, President of iMAPS – Taiwan, and Deputy Director of the Electronic and Optoelectronic System Research Laboratories at the ITRI, noted that the event had attracted over 700 participants, with nearly 30% from overseas. This made IMPACT 2023 the largest industry event for advanced semiconductor packaging technologies in Asia. Dr. Lo expressed gratitude for the support from the IEEE EPS, iMAPS, International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI), and Japanese associates including the International Conference on Electronic Packaging (ICEP) and Japan Institute of Electronics Packaging (JIEP). He also thanked the tremendous support from individuals and organizations across the industry and academia.

Innovations in Critical 3D Packaging Technologies and System-Level Performance Upgrade Will Trigger a Surge of New AI Applications

Following the opening ceremony, plenary speeches were delivered by Dr. Jun He, Vice President of Quality and Reliability and Operations and Advanced Packaging Technology and Service at TSMC, and Dr. Raja Swaminathan, Corporate Vice President at AMD. During his speech, Dr. He emphasized the explosive growth in the 3D packaging technology market, with a projected global market value exceeding USD 100 billion by 2025. Dr. He also highlighted TSMC’s proactive approach in aggressively promoting its “3DFabric” platform, which combines advanced packaging technologies such as SoIC (3D), CoWoS (2.5D), and InFO (2.5D). As a testament to the power of 3D packaging technology, he pointed out that NVIDIA’s latest generation GPU (i.e., the H100) has achieved a remarkable six-fold performance improvement compared to its predecessor (i.e., the A100).

The strong demand for HPC is fueling the extensive commercial adoption of 3D packaging technology. In light of this trend, TSMC plans to expand its cleanroom space for the 3D packaging process, with expectations of more than doubling it by 2025. Furthermore, TSMC is expediting collaborations with ecosystem partners to advance critical 3D packaging innovations. One example is hybrid bonding, which enhances interconnect density. Another example is key innovations in 3D packaging that optimize signal integrity for HBM.

▲Dr. Jun He, Vice President at TSMC, highlights the game-changing impact of 3D packaging technology on NVIDIA’s latest GPU, showcasing a remarkable six-fold performance improvement over its predecessor. The surge in demand for HPC is propelling the extensive adoption of 3D packaging technology across commercial applications. Anticipating this trend, TSMC is set to significantly expand its cleanroom space for 3D packaging, with plans to more than double it by 2025. (Source: IMPACT)

Dr. Swaminathan, Corporate Vice President of AMD, said that the demand for supercomputers and AI performance had previously been growing exponentially, doubling every 1.2 years. However, the growth rate has become even higher recently, doubling within a year. The industry’s primary focus lies in upgrading system-level performance through innovations in high-speed interfaces, advanced packaging, and heterogeneous integration. AMD, in particular, is directing its attention toward improving inter-chip communication and energy efficiency. Leveraging its evolving 3D stacking technology and hybrid bonding packaging, AMD aims to substantially reduce power consumption in inter-chip communication. AMD anticipates that it will achieve a 30-fold increase in HPC and AI training efficiency per watt over the next five years.

In summary, TSMC and AMD, as respective leaders in foundry services and IC design, are focusing on the synergistic relationship between advanced packaging technologies and next-generation AI architectures. They recognize that these two sets of technologies work together to drive substantial improvements in the computing capabilities of semiconductor chips.

▲AMD’s Corporate Vice President, Dr. Raja Swaminathan, stated that the 3D stacking and hybrid bonding technologies being developed by his company can significantly reduce the power consumption of inter-chip communication. AMD also forecasts a 30-fold increase in HPC and AI training efficiency per watt in the next five years. (Source: IMPACT)

Collaborative Design to Spark Major Transformations in AI, and High-Density Heterogeneous Integration Platform to Become Crucial Bridge to Future of Semiconductor Technology

This year’s conference marked the third edition of the IEEE EPS Panel Discussion / Forum, presided over by Dr. C. P. Hung, Vice President of the ASE Group. As a key organizer of the IMPACT conference, the IEEE EPS once again brought together the latest R&D findings and influential speakers to facilitate the exchange of information regarding the most recent trends and technological advancements within the semiconductor and electronics industries.

The inception of the IEEE EPS Panel Discussion has seen a progression of significant themes. The first edition centered on the realm of 5G, followed by the second edition that explored edge computing. Notably, this year’s panel was jointly organized with the IEEE Council on Electronic Design Automation (CEDA). The primary focus of this year’s panel discussion – also known as the IEEE EPS and CEDA Joint Panel – was on ECAD tools capable of optimizing the collaborative design process for chips, packages, and systems.

The idea to join forces with the IEEE CEDA originated from Dr. Bill Chen, Fellow and Senior Technical Advisor at the ASE Group. Delivering his remarks remotely from a different location, Dr. Chen emphasized that although AI and machine learning are still in their nascent stages, significant transformations are anticipated over the next few decades. Dr. Chen stressed that collaborative design will drive the development of AI-related products and applications. This trajectory of development will also necessitate the establishment of an open-source chip ecosystem and standardized interfaces to continuously improve efficiency.

▲Dr. C. P. Hung, Vice President of ASE Group and moderator of the IEEE EPS Panel Discussion, stated that this year’s theme, which was jointly developed with the IEEE CEDA, focuses on ECAD tools that optimize collaborative design across chips, packages, and systems. (Source: IMPACT)

In addition, the IEEE EPS and CEDA Joint Panel specially invited renowned scholars and experts from domestic and international backgrounds. Prominent speakers include Dr. Madhavan Swaminathan, Head of the Department of Electrical Engineering at Pennsylvania State University; Dr. Chih-ming Hung, MediaTek’s Assistant Vice President of Technology; Dr. Arvind Sundarranjan, Managing Director at the Applied Packaging Development Center (APDC); Dr. Kyu Lim Sung, Professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology; Dr. Debendra Das Sharma, Intel’s Senior Fellow; and Nan Wang, Vice President of Component Quality and Technology at Cisco.

Dr. Madhavan Swaminathan stressed that high-density heterogeneous integration platforms will be a future trend. Moreover, such platforms have to incorporate a wide range of technologies from antennas to AI to support applications related to network communication and edge computing. This means that R&D and collaborative design also have to take place simultaneously across various fields, with distributed computing and telecommunication solutions playing crucial roles. On the topic of AI-assisted design, Dr. Hung from MediaTek discussed the importance of synergy among material technology, mechanical engineering, EDA tools, etc. However, Dr. Hung also noted that not all advances in these fields have immediate practical uses in the development of AI applications. In the case of 3D AI machine learning, the maturity of the tools for training needs to be considered.

Turning to the topic of hybrid bonding, Dr. Madhavan Swaminathan pointed out that it is a key technology in advancing AI and HPC, as it brings about computing solutions that can handle massive amounts of data with reduced latency and greater power efficiency. On the other hand, hybrid bonding is a highly complex manufacturing process that involves at least hundreds of steps. Optimizing individual steps one at a time is not enough; synergistic progress has to take place across numerous sections of the process in order to raise the yield rate.

Dr. Sung believes that initiating the next wave of the “AI revolution” will require collaborations among various types of chips, and EDA tools provide the necessary support for the development of 2.5D and 3D packages. Besides being the indispensable assistant for chip designers, EDA tools can also contribute to decision-making regarding materials and bonding methods.

As for how the UCIe standard can contribute to the expansion of the ecosystem for small-sized chips, Dr. Debendra Das Sharma said that UCIe allows for the mixing and matching of multiple chips at the package level to overcome manufacturing limitations and increase yield rates. Currently supporting 2D and 2.5D packages, UCIe will also be introduced to 3D packages in the future. When building SoCs, this standard enables innovations at the package level, integrating not only CPU, GPU, and memory but also supporting interfaces such as USB, PCIe, and CXL. The adoption of UCIe is expected to result in dynamic and configurable systems.

Likewise, when discussing the topic of heterogeneous integration, Cisco’s Vice President Wang, mentioned Open Platform Communications (OPC), a set of standards and specifications for industrial telecommunication. Wang said that co-packaged optics, which falls under OPC, can effectively address the challenges related to power consumption and costs associated with the increasing demand from machine learning networks for high-speed connectivity and high-volume computing capability. With OPC technologies, optical components can be closely integrated with Ethernet switch ICs and packaged on the same substrate, thereby reducing system power consumption by as much as 30%. However, the adoption of OPC will bring new challenges related to the integrity of signals and power supply. Hence, collaborative design and system-level optimization are necessary to achieve large-scale application.

▲The IEEE EPS and CEDA Joint Panel featured a strong lineup of speakers. From left to right: Yao-wen Chang, Dean of the College of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at National Taiwan University; Dr. Arvind Sundarranjan, Managing Director at the APDC; Dr. Chih-ming Hung, MediaTek’s Assistant Vice President of Technology; Dr. Madhavan Swaminathan, Head of the Department of Electrical Engineering at Pennsylvania State University; Dr. C. P. Hung, Vice President of ASE Group; Nan Wang, Vice President of Cisco; Dr. Kyu Lim Sung, Professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology; and Dr. Debendra Das Sharma, Senior Fellow at Intel. (Source: IMPACT)

Seeking the Best Collaborative Design Tools to Rapidly Address the Needs in the Market for Heterogeneous Integration Solutions

In the second half of the joint panel, Dr. Yao-wen Chang, Dean of the College of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at National Taiwan University, took over as the moderator. He raised three questions for the experts to discuss and share their insights. The first question he posed was, “How can AI and advanced packaging technologies address the most challenging issues in the development of applications related to AI and edge computing?” Dr. Swaminathan from Penn State was the first to respond, explaining that AI requires large-scale computing and thus requires cooperation among chips made with different process nodes. This also means that advanced packaging technologies can facilitate the integration of various types of chips, including RF chips, GPUs, CPUs, and even optical components.

Dr. Hung from MediaTek cited successful cases of AI being applied to power supply analysis and chip layout optimization. However, the bottleneck in advancing 3D integration lies in the lack of data, so AI cannot fully replace humans in designing chips at the present moment. Dr. Sung also pointed to insufficient data related to circuit designs. This impose limitations in supervised learning. Currently, the academic community is ramping up research efforts in unsupervised learning and reinforcement learning. Cisco’s Vice President Wang said heterogeneous integration could address certain challenges in the development of network systems, but he also acknowledged that chip design and chip manufacturing could become more complex as a result.

▲IMPACT 2023 was a major gathering of elites in the semiconductor and electronics industries. The event attracted a huge number of professionals from various sectors to come to the venue and exchange market intelligence and ideas. (Source: IMPACT)

The second question was, “What are the key technological challenges that we must overcome when the next generation of AI interacts with human intelligence? And when can we expect to see solutions to these challenges?” In response to this question, Dr. Das Sharma said that heterogeneous integration can combine processors and memory in a single package, while 3D stacking can further narrow the distance of inter-chip communication, thereby leading to a faster data transfer rate, better performance, and less power consumption. Dr. Sundarrajan also pointed out that solving the challenges of heterogeneous integration will necessitate technological innovations in materials and other areas. Reducing the space between the chip and the substrate, lowering the defect rate, finding ways to strengthen the bond between different materials, and eliminating chip warping are some of the issues mentioned in the joint panel. These kinds of solutions are required to enable chips to achieve the most optimal performance.

The final question posed by Dr. Chang was, “Regarding EDA tools, what is the extent of their readiness for advanced packaging? And what are the major technological gaps that require immediate attention?” In answering this question, Dr. Sung said that the development of EDA tools is somewhat lagging behind when it comes to heterogeneous integration and the construction of 2.5D and 3D packages. Overall, chip designers need more functionality and automation from their EDA tools. While tools for 2D packages are quite mature, there is still considerable room for improvement in designing chips featuring 3D integration. Dr. Madhavan Swaminathan added that current providers of EDA tools tend to be too passive. They are reluctant to invest in new technologies without specific orders from customers. Swaminathan believes EDA companies need to partner with other technology developers to push forward heterogeneous integration.

Dr. Hung stated that even for 2D packages, chip design companies need to have their own in-house tools to address the shortcomings of commercial EDA tools from external providers. Dr. Hung believes EDA companies should respond more promptly to the needs of IC design houses. Turning to Dr. Das Sharma, he stated that when EDA companies see market potential, they will invest in new technologies. The key is to make them recognize that the aforementioned technologies represent the next major direction in the evolution of chip designs. Lastly, Cisco’s Wang called attention to the different integration and analytical capabilities that EDA tools and systems have to have in order to prepare for the potential issues that may arise in the future development of heterogeneous integration. Early preparations are essential.

▲The IEEE EPS and CEDA Joint Panel primarily delved into discussions on the following topics: (1) the use of AI and advance packaging technologies for resolving issues in the development of edge computing and AI-driven applications; (2) the major technological challenges in the development of next-generation AI; and (3) the use of EDA tools to further improve the designs of advanced packages. (Source: IMPACT)

As a collaborative effort between its organizers and a consortium of partnering entities, IMPACT 2023 unfolded as a massive three-day convention, featuring 33 sessions comprising seminars, panel discussions, lectures, and more. The event not only included keynote presentations by top executives from companies like TSMC and AMD but also assembled hundreds of heavyweight experts from academia and accomplished professionals from various industries worldwide. Additionally, the IEEE EPS and CEDAS Joint Panel was held for the first time, offering attendees an in-depth look into the realm of AI-based collaborative design. Embracing a holistic approach, IMPACT 2023 transcended mere technological discourse to explore the contours of market trends, igniting the sparks of innovation that promise to shape our future.

It is worth noting that TPCA Show 2023 was held concurrently, featuring 1,386 booths set up by companies around the world. More than 480 international brands were showcasing their products and services at this event. In terms of thematic focus, the exhibitions at TPCA Show 2023 were primarily about semiconductors (i.e., chip assembly and packaging), net-zero emissions, smart manufacturing, and forward-looking solutions. The organizers of TPCA Show 2023 were eager to provide a wide range of services to foreign visitors as they sought to make the event the premier international platform for presenting the latest innovations and trading cutting-edge solutions. Like IMPACT, TPCA Show aims to promote the development of various industries. These events also continue to demonstrate Taiwan’s capabilities in the areas of PCBs, semiconductors, electronics, etc.

(The featured image of this article shows Dr. Wei-chung Lo delivering the opening remarks on the first day of IMPACT 2023. Dr. Lo is the Chair of IMPACT 2023, President of iMAPS – Taiwan, and Deputy Director of the Electronic and Optoelectronic System Research Laboratories at ITRI. Source: IMPACT.)

On November 27, Kingston, the global leader in memory modules, and Longsys, acclaimed as key memory module maker in China, jointly announced the establishment of a new joint venture company in China. This strategic move aligns with the resurgence in the memory market, with Kingston taking the lead to step into the Chinese market, reported by UDN News.

As per the collaborative plans between Kingston and Longsys, the joint venture will be established in China, with Kingston holding a 51% stake and Longsys holding 49%. The focus is on expanding the Chinese market together. According to Longsys’ press release, the newly formed joint venture will operate independently, specializing in supplying embedded memory products to the Chinese market. Longsys will oversee product development and technical support, while Kingston will manage procurement and brand-related needs. The capital amount of the new company has not been disclosed by either Kingston or Longsys.

Founded in 1987 and headquartered in California, USA, Kingston is a globally renowned memory module product manufacturer. In 2022, it secured the top position in global memory module and solid-state drive module suppliers. Besides, it leads in the embedded storage market share and holds a dominant position as a key supplier to China’s Tier 1 OEM.

On the other hand, Longsys, established in 1999 and headquartered in Shenzhen, China, has emerged as a key player in the industry. In recent years, it acquired competitors such as Lexar in the United States and Smart Modular in Brazil. Longsys primarily focuses on NAND-related applications and is currently listed on the ChiNext board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

In previous press release, TrendForce once mentioned that facing a volatile market in recent years, Chinese homegrown SSD channels are also actively advancing supply chain configurations. Aiming to step beyond China and into international waters, Chinese companies like Longsys is leading the charge by acquiring shares in Licheng Suzhou and Smart Modular to strengthen downstream module production capacity.

Regarding this joint venture, industry source anticipate that the partnership between Kingston and Longsys, with a focus on embedded storage products and NAND-related applications, will drive substantial demand for NAND chip control ICs.

(Image: Longsys)

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Market speculations rumored that TSMC might cut its capital expenditure for next year to USD 28-30 billion. This potential reduction, ranging from 6.3% to 12.5% compared to this year, is attributed to the shared use of certain process equipment and the utilization of deferred budgets from the current year. If realized, this would mark the lowest capital expenditure point in nearly four years. Additionally, it could impact the order volumes for equipment & testing-related companies, influencing the overall order dynamics in the supply chain for the upcoming year, reported by UDN News.

Responding to the speculations about a decrease in next year’s capital expenditure, TSMC stated on the December 4th that regarding next year’s capital expenditure will be officially disclosed during the January 2024 conference. Despite the potential moderation in capital expenditure, industry observers anticipate continued growth in R&D investment, particularly in advanced process technology.

Industry sources suggest that TSMC’s R&D investment in advanced process technology will persist in its growth trajectory for the next year. Notably, approximately 80% of the equipment for the 3nm advanced process can be shared with the 5nm and 7nm processes. The focus of next year’s capital expenditure is expected to be on investments in the 3nm and below advanced processes and mask technology.

Meanwhile, mature processes will bring a rise in the share of specialty processes and equipment modifications for advanced packaging.

During 2023Q3 earnings call in October, TSMC set a cautious tone, citing uncertainties in the short-term market. The company maintained this year’s capital expenditure at nearly USD 32 billion, adopting a prudent approach to investment.

On the other hand, ASML, the global leader in semiconductor lithography technology, recently released its financial report. The forecast indicates that 2024 will be a transitional year, with expected revenue similar to that of 2023. This cautious outlook aligns with the semiconductor industry’s current phase of experiencing the bottom of the cycle.

(Image: TSMC)

According to TechNews’ report, after a prolonged period of price suppression in the mobile panel market, there has been an upswing in demand since the end of the second quarter, as customer inventories have reached a turning point.

The report further quoted industry sources, stating that the increased demand is notably driven by Huawei’s new models, and other customers initiating stockpiling for new models. This gradual increase in demand is raising AMOLED panel utilization rates, subsequently leading to a price uptick, which is also influencing LTPS LCD panel prices.

Previously reported by IJIWEI, the robust demand for Huawei’s Mate 60 series smartphones is expected to contribute to a total annual smartphone shipment of 40 to 50 million units. This surpasses the previous year’s shipments of 30 million units by 30 to 70%.

Industry insiders cited by South Korean media indicate that Huawei’s shipping target for the next year is 100 million units, surpassing market research company predictions by over 40%, which estimated around 70 million units.

The demand for Huawei’s new smartphone models is on the rise, especially as its high-end products extensively adopt LTPO backplane technology, occupying a portion of panel manufacturers’ capacity. Additionally, other customers initiating preparations for new models have contributed to the surge in demand, bringing China’s AMOLED panel capacity back to 80-90%.

Looking ahead to next year, the demand for AMOLED panels will still need to be monitored, particularly around the Lunar New Year. If demand continues to grow steadily, it will likely support panel prices.

As for the crucial component, OLED DDI (Display Driver IC), the process is gradually shifting from 40nm to 28nm. Currently, only UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation) globally can mass-produce the 28nm HV (High Voltage) process required for OLED DDI, while SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) employs the 40nm HV process.

With TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) set to join the 28nm HV process in 2025, there is no imminent shortage of supply. Therefore, the price increase in AMOLED panels may have limited impact on OLED DDI prices, and the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year are likely to maintain a stable trend.

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(Photo credit: Huawei)

In the Q3 of 2023 (July-September), global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment faced a substantial 11% decline, marking the most significant drop in four years and the second consecutive quarter of contraction. Notably, Taiwan’s market saw a nearly 50% reduction in sales, while the Chinese market achieved a historic step, crossing the 40% threshold of the global sales share for the first time, according to the report by Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ).

In collaboration with the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), SEAJ gathered data from over 80 global semiconductor equipment companies. According to the “Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment(World Wide SEMS Report)” released on December 1st, global chip equipment sales for Q3 2023 dropped by 11% to USD 25.6 billion compared to the same period last year, marking the second consecutive quarter of contraction.

Analyzing regional sales, Taiwan’s market sales dwindled to USD 3.77 billion, a nearly 50% decline from the same period last year (USD 7.28 billion), ranking it as the market with the highest contraction among the top 6. Conversely, the Chinese market experienced a remarkable 42% surge, reaching USD 11.06 billion, constituting 43% of the global sales for the first time and surpassing the 40% mark. This solidifies China’s position as the world’s largest semiconductor equipment market for the second consecutive quarter. Japan witnessed a substantial 29% drop to USD 1.82 billion, North America decreased by 5% to USD 2.5 billion, Europe grew by 2% to USD 1.7 billion, and South Korea faced a significant 19% decrease to USD 3.85 billion.

SEAJ highlighted that compared to the previous quarter (April-June 2023), global chip equipment sales in the last quarter decreased by 1%. In this context, the Chinese market saw a remarkable 46% increase, Taiwan witnessed a steep 34% decrease, South Korea plummeted by 32%, Europe grew by 5%, North America saw a significant 15% decrease, and Japan experienced a substantial 19% increase.

TEL’s Revised Outlook and China’s Rising Impact

Tokyo Electron Limited (TEL), a major player in the Japanese semiconductor equipment industry, released financial data on November 10. Despite delays in investments for advanced process and foundries, the company is experiencing a substantial increase in investments from Chinese customers, especially in mature process. Consequently, TEL has revised its global market size estimate for semiconductor front-end manufacturing equipment (wafer fab equipment, WFE) for the year 2023. The initial estimate made in August, which projected a market size of USD 70-75 billion (a YoY decrease of 25-30%), has been adjusted to USD 85-90 billion (a YoY decrease of 10-15%). Notably, in the last quarter (July-September), the Chinese market’s contribution to TEL’s overall revenue exceeded 40% for the first time.

TEL CEO Toshiki Kawai said, “We have seen around 20 to 30 new customers, and going forward we expect to see the Chinese market grow even further.” Kawai also added, “We have already received inquiries from China for CY2024, so we can expect some visibility. Our forecast for the first half of CY2024 in particular shows that China will continue to represent around 40% of sales by region.”