As applications like AIGC, 8K, AR/MR, and others continue to develop, 3D IC stacking and heterogeneous integration of chiplet have become the primary solutions to meet future high-performance computing demands and extend Moore’s Law.

Major companies like TSMC and Intel have been expanding their investments in heterogeneous integration manufacturing and related research and development in recent years. Additionally, leading EDA company Cadence has taken the industry lead by introducing the “Integrity 3D-IC” platform, an integrated solution for design planning, realization, and system analysis simulation tools, marking a significant step towards 3D chip stacking.

Differences between 2.5D and 3D Packaging

The main difference between 2.5D and 3D packaging technologies lies in the stacking method. 2.5D packaging involves stacking chips one by one on an interposer or connecting them through silicon bridges, primarily used for assembling logic processing chips and high-bandwidth memory. On the other hand, 3D packaging is a technology that vertically stacks chips, mainly targeting high-performance logic chips and SoC manufacturing.

CPU and HBM Stacking Demands

With the rapid development of applications like AIGC, AR/VR, and 8K, it is expected that a significant amount of computational demand will arise, particularly driving the need for parallel computing systems capable of processing big data in a short time. To overcome the bandwidth limitations of DDR SDRAM and further enhance parallel computing performance, the industry has been increasingly adopting High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM). This trend has led to a shift from the traditional “CPU + memory (such as DDR4)” architecture to the “Chip + HBM stacking” 2.5D architecture. With continuous growth in computational demand, the future may see the integration of CPU, GPU, or SoC through 3D stacking.

3D Stacking with HBM Prevails, but CPU Stacking Lags Behind

HBM was introduced in 2013 as a 3D stacked architecture for high-performance SDRAM. Over time, the stacking of multiple layers of HBM has become widespread in packaging, while the stacking of CPUs/GPUs has not seen significant progress.

The main reasons for this disparity can be attributed to three factors: 1. Thermal conduction, 2. Thermal stress, and 3. IC design. First, 3D stacking has historically performed poorly in terms of thermal conduction, which is why it is primarily used in memory stacking, as memory operations generate much less heat than logic operations. As a result, the thermal conduction issues faced by current memory stacking products can be largely disregarded.

Second, thermal stress issues arise from the mismatch in coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) between materials and the introduction of stress from thinning the chips and introducing metal layers. The complex stress distribution in stacked structures has a significant negative impact on product reliability.

Finally, IC design challenges from a lack of EDA tools, as traditional CAD tools are inadequate for handling 3D design rules. Developers must create their own tools to address process requirements, and the complex design of 3D packaging further increases the design, manufacturing, and testing costs.

How EDA Companies Offer Solutions

Cadence, during the LIVE Taiwan 2023 user annual conference, highlighted its years of effort in developing solutions. They have introduced tools like the Clarity 3D solver, Celsius thermal solver, and Sigrity Signal and Power Integrity, which can address thermal conduction and thermal stress simulation issues. When combined with Cadence’s comprehensive EDA tools, these offerings contribute to the growth of the “Integrity 3D-IC” platform, aiding in the development of 3D IC design.

“3D IC” represents a critical design trend in semiconductor development. However, it presents greater challenges and complexity than other projects. In addition to the challenges in Logic IC design, there is a need for analog and multi-physics simulations. Therefore, cross-platform design tools are indispensable. The tools provided by EDA leader Cadence are expected to strengthen the 3D IC design tool platform, reducing the technological barriers for stacking CPU, GPU, or SoC to enhance chip computing performance.

This article is from TechNews, a collaborative media partner of TrendForce.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to Taiwan media, UDN, an insider close to Xiaomi’s automotive venture, Xiaomi’s car project is currently in the trial production phase, which has been underway for less than a month. Currently, Xiaomi is producing approximately 50 prototype cars per week.

As reported by Interface News, trial production is one of the most crucial steps before mass production. It allows for testing the smooth operation of production line equipment, process integration, worker proficiency, and comprehensive product quality checks. If issues arise during the testing of the prototypes, they will be investigated and production lines will be fine-tuned accordingly. Conversely, if the prototypes perform well in testing, it demonstrates that the production lines are generally qualified for large-scale production.

A senior figure in the automotive industry stated that the trial production phase for a new car model typically takes around four months, with full production capacity being reached in six months to a year. However, these timelines may vary based on sales demand and production line adjustments.

Reuters reported that Xiaomi’s electric car production application has already received approval from China’s government, with the next step awaiting relevant approvals from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).

Insiders suggest that Xiaomi’s car project is expected to receive MIIT approval in the next two months, with the latest approval likely to be granted by year-end. Once approved, Xiaomi can commence mass production.

Currently, Xiaomi’s car factory in Beijing’s Yizhuang district is actively recruiting workers on a large scale, aiming to hire around 100 employees. The average salary is between 6,000 and 7,000 Chinese yuan per month, with an 8-hour workday and weekends off, allowing for flexible start dates.

A recruitment service provider for Xiaomi’s car factory revealed that the hiring criteria for permanent employees are stringent. Candidates without relevant experience have a slim chance of success, and even workers with previous experience at companies like Mercedes-Benz or Tesla may be eliminated due to insufficient interview preparation. The majority of positions have an age limit of under 28, with a minimum educational requirement of completing a vocational school or higher. Exceptional candidates may have some flexibility in these requirements.

The same supplier also mentioned that this recruitment phase is just the initial preparation for Xiaomi’s car project. Towards the end of the year or early next year, Xiaomi’s car factory will undergo a much larger-scale recruitment effort. During that time, the working hours and rest schedule at Xiaomi’s car factory may see corresponding adjustments.

Xiaomi Group’s President recently stated during a Q2 financial report meeting that Xiaomi’s automotive venture has just completed its summer testing, and progress has been exceptionally smooth. Xiaomi’s goal of commencing mass production in the first half of 2024 remains unchanged. As of now, the automotive project is progressing exceptionally well, surpassing initial expectations and plans.

(Source: https://money.udn.com/money/story/5603/7421576)

In its FY2Q24 earnings report for 2023, NVIDIA disclosed that the U.S. government had imposed controls on its AI chips destined for the Middle East. However, on August 31, 2023, the U.S. Department of Commerce stated that they had “not prohibited the sale of chips to the Middle East” and declined to comment on whether new requirements had been imposed on specific U.S. companies. Both NVIDIA and AMD have not responded to this issue.

TrendForce’s analysis:

• Close ties between Middle Eastern countries and China raise U.S. concerns:

In NVIDIA’s FY2Q24 earnings report, it mentioned, “During the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, the USG informed us of an additional licensing requirement for a subset of A100 and H100 products destined to certain customers and other regions, including some countries in the Middle East.” It is speculated that the U.S. is trying to prevent high-speed AI chips from flowing into the Chinese market via the Middle East. This has led to controls on the export of AI chips to the Middle East.

Since August 2022, the U.S. has imposed controls on NVIDIA A100, H100, AMD MI100, MI200, and other AI-related GPUs, restricting the export of AI chips with bidirectional transfer rates exceeding 600GB/s to China. Saudi Arabia had already signed a strategic partnership with China in 2022 for cooperation in the digital economy sector, including AI, advanced computing, and quantum computing technologies. Additionally, the United Arab Emirates has expressed interest in AI cooperation with China. There have been recent reports of Saudi Arabia heavily acquiring NVIDIA’s AI chips, which has raised concerns in the U.S.

• Huawei is expected to release AI chips comparable to NVIDIA A100 in the second half of 2024; competition is yet to be observed:

Affected by U.S. sanctions, Chinese companies are vigorously developing AI chips. iFlytek is planning to launch a new general-purpose LLM (Large Language Model) in October 2023, and the AI chip Ascend 910B, co-developed with Huawei, is expected to hit the market in the second half of 2024, with performance claimed to rival that of NVIDIA A100. In fact, Huawei had already introduced the Ascend 910, which matched the performance of NVIDIA’s V100, in 2019. Considering Huawei’s Kirin 9000s, featured in the flagship smartphone Mate 60 Pro released in August 2023, it is highly likely that Huawei can produce products with performance comparable to A100.

However, it’s important to note that the A100 was already announced by NVIDIA in 2020. This means that even if Huawei successfully launches a new AI chip, it will already be four years behind NVIDIA. Given the expected 7nm process for Huawei’s Ascend 910B and NVIDIA’s plan to release the 3nm process-based Blackwell architecture GPU B100 in the second half of 2024, Huawei will also lag behind by two generations in chip fabrication technology. With the parameters of LLM doubling annually, the competitiveness of Huawei’s new AI chip remains to be observed.

• China remains NVIDIA’s dominion in the short term:

Despite the active development of AI chips by Chinese IC design house, NVIDIA’s AI chips remain the preferred choice for training LLM models among Chinese cloud companies. Looking at the revenue performance of the leading Chinese AI chip company, Cambricon, its revenue for the first half of 2023 was only CNY 114 million, a YoY decrease of 34%. While being added to the U.S. Entity List was a major reason for the revenue decline, NVIDIA’s dominance in the vast Chinese AI market is also a contributing factor. It is estimated that NVIDIA’s market share in the Chinese GPU market for AI training exceeded 95% in the first half of 2023. In fact, in the second quarter of 2023, the China market accounted for 20-25% of NVIDIA’s Data Center segment revenue.

The main reason for this is that the Chinese AI ecosystem is still quite fragmented and challenging to compete with NVIDIA’s CUDA ecosystem. Therefore, Chinese companies are actively engaged in software development. However, building a sufficiently attractive ecosystem to lure Chinese CSPs in the short term remains quite challenging. Consequently, it is expected that NVIDIA will continue to dominate the Chinese market for the next 2-3 years.

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

According to Taiwan’s Economic Daily, TSMC Chairman Mark Liu stated on 9/6 that semiconductor technology development “has reached the exit of the tunnel, and there are more possibilities beyond the tunnel; we are no longer bound by the tunnel.”

Regarding TSMC’s progress in establishing a factory in the United States, Liu mentioned that this project has received support from the local government and has made significant progress in recent months. He added, “We will certainly make it very successful.”

As for the recent shortage of chips caused by generative AI, Liu noted that it is not due to TSMC’s manufacturing capacity but rather the sudden threefold increase in CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) demand. TSMC will continue to support the demand in the short term but cannot immediately ramp up production. Liu estimated that TSMC’s capacity will catch up with customer demand in about a year and a half, considering the capacity bottleneck as a short-term phenomenon.

Regarding SoftBank Group’s subsidiary, Arm, planning an initial public offering (IPO) to raise funds, Liu also revealed that they are evaluating whether to become an investor in Arm, with a decision expected in the next one or two weeks. He emphasized Arm’s importance within the semiconductor ecosystem, expressing TSMC’s desire for a successful Arm IPO.

TrendForce released panel price forecasts for early September, with Eric Chiou, Senior Research Vice President at TrendForce, noting that TV panel prices have been on the rise since February. However, despite the price uptrend, end-demand remains subdued. Coupled with the overall unfavorable economic conditions, signs of stagnant prices are emerging in September for TVs below 50 inches.

Chiou pointed out that if the outlook for the fourth quarter is not optimistic, we could be entering the peak season’s final stages. Brands are facing rising costs and limited promotional space, leading to a conservative approach in preparations for China’s Double 11 and Black Friday sales events in Europe and the US. Overall, 65-inch to 75-inch TV panels have a chance to increase by $3, but price pressures are expected to kick in for panels from October to December.

As the traditional TV market enters the off-season, the key factor will be the extent of price reductions and the profit margins for sellers.

Regarding IT panels, monitor panels are the least profitable among the three major applications. The price increases in the second quarter were already somewhat reluctant, with only low-end IT panels showing upward potential while high-end panels struggled to rise significantly. Overall, IT panels are facing stagnation in price increases and supply chain disruptions, with expectations of greater price pressure from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of the next year.

In the monitor panel segment, visibility for business laptops is not high, and brand manufacturers are expected to adjust panel procurement in the fourth quarter. Second-tier laptop manufacturers are likely to engage in price wars, facing significant pricing pressure. The panel industry conditions in the third quarter of this year were better than in the second quarter, but demand for panels in the fourth quarter may not match the third quarter’s performance.