On August 7th, HuaHong Group officially went public on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Market, Shanghai Stock Exchange (STAR Market, SSE). Combined with the return of SMIC to A-shares (China’s domestic shares) in the past two years and Nexchip’s listing in May, it brings together the three major players in China’s foundry sector on the STAR Market. Additionally, SMEC, closely linked to SMIC, also went public on the STAR Market without turning a profit. Overall, China’s foundry industry is steadily gaining strength.

As per TrendForce’s latest research, challenges in the economic outlook and ongoing inventory issues this year have led to a slowdown in demand. This is particularly noticeable in the automotive and industrial control, where inventory has been piling up after short-term fulfillment. Fabless and other IDM inventory digestion have faced severe restrictions. IDM foundries, launching new capacities, are consolidating outsourced orders and once again reducing orders to foundries. In 2024, given the expected unfavorable economic environment, the overall recovery of capacity utilization poses challenges.

While Chinese foundries have not been immune to these challenges, the losses have been mitigated thanks to the boost in China’s import substitution policies on semiconductors. According to TrendForce, the global ratio of mature (>28nm) to advanced (<16nm) processes is projected to hover around 7:3 from 2023 to 2027. Propelled by policies and incentives promoting local production and domestic IC development, China’s mature process capacity is anticipated to grow from 29% this year to 33% by 2027. Leading the charge are giants like SMIC, HuaHong Group, and Nexchip.

Exploring China’s Wafer Foundries Landscape

According to TrendForce, excluding 7 temporarily suspended fabs, China currently operates 44 fabs (25 fabs in 12-inch, 4 fabs in 6-inch wafers, and 15 in 8-inch fabs and production lines), additionally, 22 fabs are under construction (15 fabs in 12-inch, and 8 fabs in 8-inch). In the future, SMIC, Nexchip, CXMT, and Silan plan to construct 10 fabs (9 fabs in 12-inch, and 1 fab in 8-inch). Overall, by the end of 2024, China aims to establish 32 large fabs, and all of them are about to focus on mature processes.

Reviewing the distribution of wafer foundries across China, the Yangtze Delta region hosts nearly half of the total, with significant concentrations in provinces like Shanghai, Wuxi, Beijing, Hefei, Chengdu, and Shenzhen.

Nearly 4.14 million wafer capacity in 12-inch will be ongoing per month in China until 2026

In terms of capacity, the statistics showed that China currently operates 31 fabs in 12-inch, including those under construction with fixed capacity for 12-inch. The total monthly capacity is approximately 1.189 million wafer capacity. Compared to the planned monthly capacity of 2.17 million wafer capacity, the capacity utilization of these fabs is close to 54.48%, still a significant room for expansion.

Considering construction and future planning, it is anticipated that China will add 24 fabs in 12-inch in the next five years, with a planned monthly capacity of 2.223 million wafer capacity. Assuming all planned 12-inch wafer foundries achieve full production, by the end of 2026, the total monthly capacity of 12-inch in China will exceed 4.14 million wafer capacity, marking a 248.19% increase compared to the current capacity utilization rate.

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• TrendForce Foresees China’s Mature Wafer Processes to Expand to 33% by 2027, Japan Secures Advanced Processes

On October 31, 2023, Apple held a product launch event for its M3 chips. Reports suggest that Foxconn has secured a portion of existing MacBook Pro and iMac orders from Quanta. This marks the first time Foxconn has taken orders for higher-end MacBook Pro models.

The order distribution between Foxconn and Quanta has shifted, resulting in a more balanced competition. Quanta may need to expedite the introduction of new factory automation projects and relocate production facilities to reduce labor costs and regain its share of MacBook Pro and iMac orders.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Foxconn’s Notebook Factories Excel in Materials, Automation, and Factory Management

Up until 2022, Apple’s computer assembly supply chain was primarily served by two Taiwanese companies, Foxconn and Quanta. In the second half of 2022, Chinese company Wingtech Technology entered the Apple computer assembly supply chain for the first time, initially securing a small portion of orders for MacBook Air products. While they currently hold only a fraction of the orders, they will undoubtedly pose a significant challenge to Foxconn and Quanta in the future.

Quanta, favored by Apple for its tech-oriented approach, faces tough competition from Foxconn, known for its high degree of factory management and production line automation.

The reason for Quanta losing a portion of its high-end notebook orders might be linked to the minimal design differences between the new models featuring the M3 chip and their predecessors.

Moreover, their assembly, testing, and packaging processes remain alike. Hence, Apple adjusts order proportions in its supply chain according to the production yield and quotes from assembly factories as part of risk management. Material costs, labor expenses, and production-related costs are the main elements in the product cost structure. At this stage, labor costs in Shanghai are higher than in Chengdu.

Additionally, Foxconn is one of Apple’s computer case suppliers, giving it priority in material usage. Given Foxconn’s extensive projects for production line automation, their acquisition of Apple’s high-end M3 chip orders for the MacBook Pro has significantly bolstered their standing.

In the future, as long as Apple’s computer designs undergo minimal changes, Foxconn can enhance its output by accelerating the replication of similar production lines. This strategy aims to satisfy customer demands across production volume, costs, quality, and delivery time. Consequently, Foxconn’s aim to capture a share of Quanta’s orders is just a matter of time.

2. Quanta Needs to Accelerate Factory Automation and Establish Vietnam Facilities

Quanta’s factory in Shanghai, producing computer goods, operates within a labor-intensive industry. With the continual rise in local labor costs, recruiting in Shanghai, primarily an area with a service and finance-oriented workforce, becomes increasingly challenging. This scenario significantly impacts the overall workforce deployment in the production line.

Despite having facilities in Chongqing, the company’s strong presence of Apple repair centers in Shanghai anchors its focus there. Moreover, the ongoing establishment of Quanta’s Vietnamese facilities abroad will take time to address production capacity. Hence, Quanta might need to expedite factory automation in Shanghai to reduce labor usage, effectively cutting costs, and potentially regaining Apple orders.

Apple’s computer assembly has long been centered around China, but due to geopolitical influences, Quanta has ultimately shifted to establish production facilities in Vietnam

Vietnam has emerged as an electronic industry hub in the “China+1” strategy. Quanta should leverage local resources to transfer small-scale production lines to Vietnam for manufacturing. By obtaining brand verification for these products beforehand, they aim to shorten the preparation time before mass production, with the goal of reducing costs, improving yields, and regaining customer confidence.

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(Photo credit: Pixabay)

According to IJIWEI News, two Indian government officials have revealed that India is considering Tesla’s request to reduce import duties on electric vehicles as an enticement for the company to establish a factory in the country.

Tesla has reportedly indicated that establishing a facility in India hinges on government concessions regarding import duties. Officials mentioned that Tesla insists on “at least a duty relaxation for a certain transition period” and added that “there would be sunset clauses.”

Currently, India imposes a 70% tax on imported cars under $40,000 USD to support the local automobile industry, while those above $40,000 USD face a 100% duty. India is contemplating reducing tariffs on all electric vehicles to 15%, regardless of their selling price, although there’s no unified consensus within the government.

As reported, the proposing officials hope that the aforementioned legislation will not only benefit India but also other qualifying manufacturers, instead of favoring a specific company alone.

Previously, there were reports suggesting Tesla’s intention to establish a factory in India for manufacturing low-cost electric vehicles, catering to the domestic market and planning for exports. However, Tesla’s 2022 plans for reduced import duties on electric vehicles were canceled as the Indian government insisted that the vehicles must be manufactured in India.

Over the past year, senior Tesla executives have met with Indian government officials at least three times. When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the United States for an official visit in June this year, he met with Tesla CEO Elon Musk in New York to discuss the potential establishment of a plant in India.

(Photo credit: Pixabay)

On November 9th, EMS (Electronic Manufacturing Services) giant Wistron, through its Malaysian subsidiary WMMY, disclosed the successful completion of the sale of consumer electronics production facilities in the Selangor and Sungai Way Free Trade Zones.

The company is set to sell the properties, which include factories and land in these two free trade zones, to semiconductor major NXP for approximately 1.85 billion Malaysian Ringgit (equivalent to roughly USD 392million).

Wistron announced that its subsidiary WMMY (Wistron Technology Sdn. Bhd.) signed a “Letter of Offer to Purchase” with the unrelated entity NXP Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. According to Malaysian regulations, when buying or selling a property, the buyer can place a deposit and sign a preliminary contract with the seller.

However, within 14 business days, a formal sales agreement needs to be signed between the buyer and the seller for the transaction to be completed.

Wistron had declared through its subsidiary WMMY back in September of this year that it intended to divest its property (including factories and land) in the Selangor and Sungai Way Free Trade Zones in Malaysia in response to external economic changes and global strategic considerations.

At that time, the specifics of the transaction, including the counterpart and amount, were undetermined. The company had only established that the total transaction amount should not be less than 185 million Malaysian Ringgit (approximately 39.2 million USD). The deal presented by NXP aligns with these conditions, thus facilitating the progress of the factory sale.

Wistron has initiated several factory sales in recent years, including the iPhone assembly plants in Kunshan, China, and India, as well as the consumer electronics plant in Malaysia. The Kunshan facility was sold to Luxshare, a Chinese manufacturer, while the Indian plant was acquired by Tata Group, an Indian electronics corporation. The Malaysian plant, in this instance, is sold to the semiconductor giant NXP, and the transaction is projected to conclude within 14 days.

NXP currently operates six wafer fabs in the United States, the Netherlands, and Singapore, with four assembly and testing facilities situated in Taiwan, China, Thailand, and Malaysia.

The company specializes in producing application processors, communication processors, wireless connectivity SoCs, RF amplifiers, security system ICs, various analog products, and MCUs (microcontrollers).

Wistron’s manufacturing facility in Selangor, Malaysia, is mainly responsible for material fabrication, manufacturing, industrial engineering, production management, mechanisms, quality assurance, and production management.

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(Photo credit: Wistron)

Mature process foundries are locked in a battle to uphold a 60% capacity utilization rate. Reports indicate that major players, including UMC, Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), and PSMC, are slashing prices significantly for the first quarter of the coming year to salvage their capacity utilization rates. This reduction, reaching double-digit percentages and up to 15% to 20% for project customers, stands out as the most extensive post-pandemic price cut, according to UDN News.

Post-Pandemic Price Challenges in Mature Process Foundries    

This pricing adjustment is pushing the prices of mature process foundries to a new low post-pandemic, affecting the profit margins and profitability trends of related companies. Industry sources disclose that only TSMC’s prices remain robust, with almost no exception for other foundries.

To rescue capacity utilization rates, companies are aggressively tweaking their quotes. A source from an IC design company privately reveals that foundries have notified them of slow-moving business in mature processes, resulting in a direct drop in capacity utilization rates. To ensure capacity utilization rates and market share, maintaining a certain level of production scale becomes imperative, prompting a substantial reduction in quotes.

Industry sources emphasize that despite recent indications of recovery in the PC and smartphone markets, clients remain cautious due to external factors such as inflation, especially given almost a year of inventory clearance. Companies, still on edge, fear slipping back into the challenges of inventory clearance and thus maintain a conservative approach to order placement.

Currently, the recovery in order placement strength is only about 30% to 40% of pre-pandemic levels, compelling wafer foundries to intensify their price cuts to prevent orders from being lost to competitors willing to lower prices, resulting in even lower capacity utilization.

It is evident that consumer IC demand for foundry services is low, and whom focusing on 8-inch mature process are the most affected. It is mainly due to excessive duplicate orders from integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) and IC design companies in the past, leading to inventory clearance for chips such as power management ICs, driver ICs, and microcontrollers (MCUs). Some products have even shifted to 12-inch wafers, keeping the capacity utilization rates of 8-inch foundries at a low level.

Navigate Semiconductor Shifts in TSMC, UMC, VIS, and PSMC

Industry sources note that TSMC is bolstered by advanced processes, enabling them to bundle them with mature processes for sale. Moreover, TSMC’s pricing strategy for mature processes has not surged as dramatically as that of other related companies, making it more acceptable to customers.

As for UMC, the company anticipates a drop in capacity utilization rates from 67% in the last quarter to 60% to 63% in this quarter, reaching a single-season low in recent years. Due to the continuous adjustment of capacity utilization rates, the gross profit margin will drop from 35.9% last quarter to 31% to 33%, reverting to levels seen at the beginning of the pandemic in 2021.

In response to pricing issues, UMC stated that, as mentioned in a recent earnings call, there will indeed be a significant decrease in the 8-inch, but there will be no adjustments for the 12-inch. Supply chain sources reveal that UMC has reportedly offered a 5% concession, aiming to consolidate order momentum with major clients this quarter. Considering the anticipated weak demand in the first quarter of next year and to attract more order placements, UMC plans to expand the price reduction to double-digit percentages.

According to the supply chain, VIS is expected to see a price reduction of up to 5% in the second half of the year. Large-volume clients may even secure a 10% discount, with a further decrease expected in the first quarter of next year, ranging from single to double-digit percentages. The company’s management previously mentioned at a conference call that, in response to intense price competition, short-term flexible adjustments are anticipated.

Similarly impacted by conservative customer order placements, PSMC reported losses in the third quarter, with capacity utilization rates hovering around 60%. It is reported that PSMC is also gearing up to implement price reduction measures to enhance capacity utilization rates.

(Image: VIS)

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