DRAM Spot Market
TrendForce has found that in the past week, the supply of used DDR4 chips (that were stripped from decommissioned server DRAM modules) has started to tighten. Therefore, products in the lower price range have also experienced small price hikes. However, the biggest issue still lies with the demand situation. The spot trading of chips and modules will remain tepid as long as buyers lack the willingness to make significant procurements. The average price of the mainstream chips (DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.21% from US$1.460 last week to US$1.457 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market
The spot market is seen with fluctuations of prices among packaged dies at different capacities, though the tendency has not continued regardless. With suppliers constantly increasing their quotations, buyers are still at the wait-and-see end and have yet to fully turn aggressive in the stocking. Wafer prices, after several consecutive weeks of slow increment, are now drawing near the low market price interval. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 5.49% this week, arriving at US$1.519.

Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 15 in September 2023, with minimal changes anticipated in its PCB design. According to research from TrendForce, the iPhone 16, set to launch in 2024, is projected to adopt the use of RCC (Resin Coated Copper) material for its mainboard to reduce the device’s thickness.

TrendForce’s analysis is as follows:

The iPhone 15 Pro Max will feature RFPCB for its periscope lens, while the iPhone 16 Pro series will utilize RCC for its mainboard.

Looking first at the primary changes in the iPhone 15’s PCB, constrained by factors such as device dimensions and product pricing, only the iPhone 15 Pro Max will incorporate a periscope lens. In contrast to the conventional FPC (Flexible Printed Circuit) used in typical lenses, the iPhone 15’s periscope lens will adopt RFPCB (Rigid-Flex Printed Circuit Board) to better utilize space and control the device’s thickness.

Currently, iPhones employ SLP (Substrate-Like PCB) for their mainboards. To achieve a thinner device profile, Apple is planning to introduce RCC as the mainboard material for the iPhone 16 Pro series, scheduled for the latter half of 2024. This will involve using 2 to 8 layers of RCC within the 18 to 20 layers of SLP.

However, based on supply chain information, RCC has not yet passed drop tests, leading to potential fractures between SLP layers. If this issue persists beyond the end of 2023, the adoption of RCC might be postponed until the introduction of the iPhone 17, which could be expected in 2025.

The SLP architecture is moving closer to ABF substrates, while RCC can only replace a portion of the CCL layers.

Taking a closer look at RCC’s material characteristics, RCC involves applying semi-cured epoxy resin onto copper foil after heating. The main distinction between RCC and standard CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) lies in the absence of glass fiber cloth in RCC. RCC primarily consists of resin and copper foil, and it employs ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) instead of PP (Prepreg) as the insulating material between copper foil layers. RCC is also a material used in ABF substrates, indicating that SLP architecture is moving closer to ABF substrates.

Due to its lack of glass fiber cloth, RCC offers advantages such as reduced thickness and suitability for fine line designs. Its lower Dk (Dielectric constant) and Df (Dissipation Factor) characteristics contribute to high-frequency and high-speed transmission. However, due to its softer nature, RCC has poorer support capabilities, allowing it to only replace certain CCL layers.

It is expected that Ajinomoto will have a monopoly in the iPhone RCC market in 2024, with Taiwanese manufacturers potentially becoming suppliers in 2025.

In the supply chain realm, since ABF substrates also involve RCC, Ajinomoto, a primary ABF supplier, is projected to become the exclusive supplier of iPhone RCC materials in 2024. ITEQ, an early adopter of RCC materials, successfully developed RCC production lines by the end of 2021, making it the first Taiwanese CCL manufacturer to do so. As such, it stands a chance of becoming the second supplier.

EMC is a major supplier of iPhone mainboard CCL materials, with an estimated market share of around 95% in 2023. TSEC also successfully developed RCC materials in 2022, indicating that both ITEQ and EMC have potential to enter the iPhone RCC supply chain in 2025. Other companies, including Japanese firms Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, Panasonic, and Korean company Doosan Electronics, have also developed RCC materials, indicating an interest in becoming part of the iPhone RCC supply chain.

As reported by TechNews, a media partner of TrendForce, Southeast Asia and India, equipped with the advantages of demographic dividends, strategic geographic positioning, manufacturing capabilities, and rapidly growing economic markets, have undoubtedly emerged as the preferred destinations for the technology industry amidst the global supply chain transition prompted by geopolitical factors.

As supply chains actively seek production bases beyond China and governments introduce incentive programs and policy restrictions for localized supply, various Southeast Asian countries have become key hubs for different sectors. Vietnam has become a focal point for consumer electronics manufacturing such as laptops, watches, and headphones, while Thailand has become a preferred choice for automotive-related supply chains. Thailand and Malaysia host assembly bases for servers, and India is set to become a crucial hub for mobile phone production.

Apart from the movement of end-product assembling, the shift in the semiconductor supply chain has also garnered attention. With TSMC, Samsung, and Intel relocating wafer fabrication plants to the United States, Europe, and other regions, a significant cluster of semiconductor backend testing and packaging has been forming in Malaysia.

What Advantages Does Malaysia Offer to Attract Multinational Semiconductor Companies’ Investment, and What Is the Current Industry Landscape?

Firstly, Malaysia boasts higher education standards than neighboring countries. Among ASEAN nations, only Singapore and Malaysia employ the British legal system, providing a competitive edge for many companies’ location choices. Secondly, in terms of language proficiency, Malaysian citizens predominantly use English, Mandarin, and Malay, facilitating smooth communication with global enterprises.

Thirdly, Malaysia is home to two major ports—Port Klang and Port of Tanjung Pelepas—both ranked among the world’s top 15 ports, with substantial container handling capacity and global reach.

Lastly, the state of Penang stands as a semiconductor hub for Malaysia, having nurtured the semiconductor industry for several decades and holding a technological lead. Often referred to as the “Silicon Valley of the East,” Penang has primarily focused on producing chips for electronics, computers, and mobile phones. However, with the growing adoption of electric vehicles, the demand for automotive chips has surged. Concurrently, the green energy trend has propelled the need for solar panels and renewable energy sources. This optimistic outlook for the semiconductor industry has once again attracted numerous companies to establish facilities and expand production capacity.

Current State of Malaysia’s Semiconductor Industry

Looking at the recent dynamics of corporations over the past two years, the trend is evident that Malaysia is evolving into a center for semiconductor backend testing and packaging. Major global players have announced plans to establish or expand operations in Penang. Intel, for example, announced a $6.46 billion investment in Malaysia in 2021, focusing on advanced packaging capabilities in Penang and Kedah.

Texas Instruments declared its intent to construct semiconductor testing and packaging plants in Kuala Lumpur and Malacca, with a total investment of up to $2.7 billion. Infineon is investing $5.45 billion to expand existing facilities, producing silicon carbide and entering the electric vehicle sector. Bosch Group is investing $358 million in stages to strengthen its semiconductor supply chain position in Penang. ASE Technology Holding, also began construction on a new testing facility in Penang at the end of last year.

With the influx of semiconductor giants, Malaysia’s position in the semiconductor industry has become increasingly critical. The distinct production base trends, aligned with the strengths of various Southeast Asian countries, have become clear. The restructuring of supply chains and the transformation of production centers undoubtedly remain the focus and challenge for global companies.

(Photo credit: ASE)

Dell, a major server brand, placed a substantial order for AI servers just before NVIDIA’s Q2 financial report. This move is reshaping Taiwan’s supply chain dynamics, favoring companies like Wistron and Lite-On.

Dell is aggressively entering the AI server market, ordering NVIDIA’s top-tier H100 chips and components. The order’s value this year is estimated in hundreds of billions of Taiwanese dollars, projected to double in the next year. Wistron and Lite-On are poised to benefit, securing vital assembly and power supply orders. EMC and Chenbro are also joining the supply chain.

Dell’s AI server order, which includes assembly (including complete machines, motherboards, GPU boards, etc.) and power supply components, stands out with its staggering value. The competition was most intense in the assembly sector, ultimately won by Wistron. In the power supply domain, industry leaders like Delta, Lite-On, secured a notable share, with Lite-On emerging as a winner, sparking significant industry discussions.

According to Dell’s supply chain data, AI server inventory will reach 20,000 units this year and increase next year. The inventory primarily features the highest-end H100 chips from NVIDIA, with a few units integrating the A100 chips. With each H100 unit priced at $300,000 and A100 units exceeding $100,000, even with a seemingly modest 20,000 units, the total value remains in the billions of New Taiwan Dollars.

Wistron is a standout winner in Dell’s AI server assembly order, including complete machines, motherboards, and GPU boards. Wistron has existing H100 server orders and will supply new B100 baseboard orders. Their AI server baseboard plant in Hsinchu, Taiwan will expand by Q3 this year. Wistron anticipates year-round growth in the AI server business.

Following Saudi Arabia’s $13 billion investment, the UK government is dedicating £100 million (about $130 million) to acquire thousands of NVIDIA AI chips, aiming to establish a strong global AI foothold. Potential beneficiaries include Wistron, GIGABYTE, Asia Vital Components, and Supermicro.

Projections foresee a $150 billion AI application opportunity within 3-5 years, propelling the semiconductor market to $1 trillion by 2030. Taiwan covers the full industry value chain. Players like TSMC, Alchip, GUC, Auras, Asia Vital Components, SUNON, EMC, Unimicron, Delta, and Lite-On are poised to gain.

Reports suggest the UK is in advanced talks with NVIDIA for up to 5,000 GPU chips, but models remain undisclosed. The UK government recently engaged with chip giants NVIDIA, Supermicro, Intel, and others through the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) to swiftly acquire necessary resources for Prime Minister Sunak’s AI development initiative. Critics question the adequacy of the £100 million investment in NVIDIA chips, urging Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to allocate more funds to support the AI project.

NVIDIA’s high-performance GPU chips have gained widespread use in AI fields. Notably, the AI chatbot ChatGPT relies heavily on NVIDIA chips to meet substantial computational demands. The latest iteration of AI language model, GPT-4, requires a whopping 25,000 NVIDIA chips for training. Consequently, experts contend that the quantity of chips procured by the UK government is notably insufficient.

Of the UK’s £1 billion investment in supercomputing and AI, £900 million is for traditional supercomputers, leaving £50 million for AI chip procurement. The budget recently increased from £70 million to £100 million due to global chip demand.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE also ordered thousands of NVIDIA AI chips, and Saudi Arabia’s order includes at least 3,000 of the latest H100 chips. Prime Minister Sunak’s AI initiative begins next summer, aiming for a UK AI chatbot like ChatGPT and AI tools for healthcare and public services.

As emerging AI applications proliferate, countries are actively competing in the race to bolster AI data centers, turning the acquisition of AI-related chips into an alternative arms race. Compal said, “An anticipate significant growth in the AI server sector in 2024, primarily within hyperscale data centers, with a focus on European expansion in the first half of the year and a shift toward the US market in the latter half.”