Once considered a driving force behind economic growth, the electric vehicle (EV) market is facing a reality check as consumers are becoming more practical about their needs due to rising inflation and high-interest rates. Automakers acknowledge that in times of inflation, electric vehicles won’t be on consumers’ radar in the coming years unless their prices are lowered.

In the third quarter, the U.S. saw a surge in EV sales, breaking the 313,000 mark, almost a 50% increase from the same period the previous year. The EV market share reached an all-time high of 7.9%.

However, this growth may be reaching its peak as major automakers are now either postponing their electric vehicle sales targets and production plans or resorting to price reductions.

For instance, Ford has extended the annual production target for electric vehicles to 600,000 units by one year, abandoned the goal of producing 2 million electric vehicles by 2026, and temporarily halted a $12 billion investment in EV projects.

General Motors has also abandoned its sales targets, and Honda has given up on its plans to jointly develop electric vehicles priced below $30,000 with General Motors. Tesla has postponed its super factory project in Mexico.

More manufacturers are resorting to price reductions, including Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, and Ford’s electric trucks, all of which are offering significant discounts.

Price vs. Affordability

Consumers are primarily concerned with the price difference between EVs and gasoline vehicles. In the U.S., most compact electric SUVs are priced at around $52,000, while similar gasoline SUVs cost only about $34,000.

According to Ford’s CEO, in the EV industry, exceptional products alone are no longer sufficient; they must also be cost-competitive. Elon Musk also noted that the high-interest-rate environment is unfavorable for market demand, and making products more affordable is essential to encourage people to make purchases.

However, even with price reductions and discounts, it seems that buyers remain unimpressed. U.S. dealers have observed that the next wave of buyers, unlike those who made impulsive purchases in the past couple of years, are now more focused on practical factors such as cost, infrastructure challenges, and lifestyle impediments.

Practical Considerations

Market analysts suggest that over the past decade of low-interest rates, consumers have increased their spending. However, as interest rates rise, consumers now find the need to be more frugal.

The price of EVs has gone beyond the affordability range of many consumers. The current high-interest-rate environment is also unfavorable for convincing consumers to explore immature automotive technologies.

A survey found that aside from price, consumers still worry about range anxiety and the lack of charging infrastructure. Up to 77% of respondents said these were the most pressing issues when considering EVs. Consumers are less likely to consider immature products when their budgets are tight.

The U.S. government aims to have half of all new vehicles sold be zero-emission vehicles by 2030. Just a few years ago, policymakers believed that Americans would adopt EVs without needing much persuasion. However, this optimism now appears to be overly idealistic.

For now, General Motors, Ford, and even Tesla are deciding to hold onto their cash reserves and redeploy them when the economic situation stabilizes. Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda, who has consistently argued that pure EVs are not the only solution, should be feeling vindicated as he stated at the recent Tokyo Motor Show, saying that “People are finally seeing reality.”

Read more 

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(Photo credit: Pixabay)

According to EnergyTrend, the New Energy Research Center under TrendForce, as of October 23, 2023, the prices for various photovoltaic materials and components have experienced changes:

For Polysilicon:

• Mono Recycled Polysilicon in RMB (Renminbi) dropped to RMB 72/KG, a decrease of 10%.
• Mono Grade Polysilicon in RMB decreased from RMB 78/KG to RMB 70/KG, a 10.26% decline.
• N-Type Polysilicon was quoted at RMB 78/KG, with a minor change of -15.22%.
• Polysilicon outside China was priced at US$20.55/KG.

For Wafer:

• M10 Mono Wafer in RMB were quoted at RMB 2.4/Pc, marking an 11.11% decrease; the latest pricing in USD was US$0.299/Pc, down by 11.01% from the previous US$0.336/Pc.
• G12 Mono Wafer in RMB were priced at RMB 3.4/Pc, showing a 5.56% decrease; the latest pricing in USD was US$0.422/Pc, a 5.59% drop.
• Since October 23rd, new N-Type M10 Mono Wafer was quoted at RMB 2.5/Pc.

For Cell:

• M10 Mono PERC Cell in RMB was priced at RMB 0.51/W, marking a 10.53% decrease; the USD pricing was US$0.065/W, down by 11.64% from the previous US$0.073/W.
• G12 Mono PERC Cell in RMB was quoted at RMB 0.53/W, representing a significant decrease of 10.17% from RMB 0.59/W; the latest USD price was US$0.067/W, showing an 11.84% decline.
• M10 TOPCon Cells in RMB decreased from RMB 0.6/W to RMB 0.52/W, down by 13.33%.

For Modules:

• The price for 182mm facial Mono PERC Module was RMB 1.15/W, a 4.17% reduction from the previous week.
• Both 210mm facial Mono PERC Module and 182mm facial Mono PERC Module were quoted at RMB 1.16/W, with a change of 4.13%.
• The price for 210mm facial Mono PERC Module was RMB 1.17/W.

PV Glass prices were reported as follows:

• 2.0mm Coating was priced at RMB 20/㎡.
• 3.2mm Coating was priced at RMB 28/㎡.

Please note that this information is sourced from EnergyTrend and should be credited if used or referenced.

Escalating demand in sectors like electric vehicles, 5G communications, photovoltaics, and memory storage is currently fueling the rapid growth of the silicon carbide (SiC) industry. Key players in China are intensifying their research and development efforts to overcome technological challenges and secure a substantial market share.

The arrival of 8-inch SiC substrates is crucial and marks a technological significant milestone that everyone desires, opening up new possibilities.

The Turning Point: 8-Inch SiC Substrates

As a third-generation semiconductor material, SiC boasts advantages like a wider bandgap, higher breakdown electric field, and exceptional thermal conductivity. Its stellar performance in high-temperature, high-pressure, and high-frequency applications positions it as a cornerstone in the realm of semiconductor materials.

Fueled by growing demand downstream, the SiC industry is in the midst of a high-speed expansion phase. TrendForce’s analysis forecasts the SiC power device market to reach US$2.28 billion in 2023, with an impressive annual growth rate of 41.4%. By 2026, this market is expected to expand further, reaching US$5.33 billion.

From an industry perspective, SiC devices’ cost structure encompasses substrates, epitaxy, tape out, and packaging processes, with substrates accounting for a substantial 45% of total production costs. To reduce per-device costs, the strategy revolves around enlarging SiC substrates and increasing the number of die per substrate. Notably, 8-inch SiC substrates offer distinct cost advantages over their 6-inch counterparts.

Data from Wolfspeed reveals that the transition from 6-inch to 8-inch substrates results in a modest increase in processing costs but yields an impressive 80-90% increase in the production of qualified chips. The greater thickness of 8-inch substrates helps maintain the shape during processing, reduces edge curvature, and minimizes defect density. Consequently, adopting 8-inch substrates can lead to a substantial 50% reduction in unit production costs.

According to TrendForce’s analysis, the SiC industry currently centers around 6-inch substrates, holding an impressive 80% market share, while 8-inch substrates account for only 1%. The transition to larger 8-inch wafers represents a crucial strategy to further reduce SiC device costs. As 8-inch wafers mature, their pricing is expected to be about 1.5 times that of 6-inch wafers, while producing approximately 1.8 times dies compare with 6-inch SiC wafers, greatly improving wafer utilization.

The industry is steadfastly progressing from 6-inch to 8-inch substrates, offering Chinese manufacturers a unique opportunity to surge ahead. TrendForce’s data suggests that the current market share of 8-inch products stands at less than 2%, with a projected growth to approximately 15% by 2026.

Seizing the Moment: Advancing 8-Inch SiC Substrates

Industry experts highlight the dual challenges of growing 8-inch SiC crystals: (1) the development of 8-inch seed crystals and (2) temperature field uniformity, gas-phase material distribution, transportation efficiency, and increased stress leading to crystal cracking.

As per industry insiders, 2023 is poised to become the “Year of 8-Inch SiC.” Throughout the year, global power semiconductor giants like Wolfspeed and STMicroelectronics have accelerated their efforts to develop 8-inch SiC. In China, significant breakthroughs have been achieved in SiC equipment, substrates, and epitaxy segments, with numerous industry leaders forming alliances with international power semiconductor giants.

TrendForce’s data from the Compound Semiconductor Market reveal that 10 enterprises and institutions in China are currently advancing the development of 8-inch silicon carbide (SiC) substrates. These include Semisic, JSG, SICC, Summit Crystal, Synlight, Institute of Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shandong University, TankeBlue, KY Semiconductor, and IV-Semitec.

Here are the list of Chinese companies in the 8-inch SiC substrate field this year:

KY Semiconductor:

• April 2023: Successfully completed the 8-inch SiC pilot line.
• June 2023: Achieved an average crystal growth yield of over 50% in the 8-inch SiC pilot line with crystal thickness exceeding 15mm.
• September 2023: Successfully launched the 8-inch SiC substrate processing workshop.

IV-Semitec:

• May 2023: Grew 8-inch n-type silicon carbide ingots with a thickness of 27 millimeters.
• September 2023: Signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Spectrum Semiconductor and Gietsic for the joint development of SiC-related products.
• October 2023: Commenced the construction of the pilot line for SiC substrates, with an annual production capacity of 600,000 pieces of 6-8 inch SiC substrates.

Summit Crystal:

• June 2023: Opened the Jinan’s Base with a planned production capacity of 500,000 pieces. It aims to reach full production by 2025, with an expected output value exceeding 5 billion RMB.
• August 2023: Cooperated with Shangdong University, successfully manufactured 8-inch SiC wafers the threading screw dislocation (TSD) density was 0.55 cm^-2, and the basal plane dislocation (BPD) density was 202 cm^-2.

Hoshine Silicon:

• May 2023: Successfully achieved the development and mass production of 8-inch silicon carbide substrates.
• October 2023: 20,000 SiC substrates passed acceptance inspection, demonstrating the capability for mass production.

Synlight:

• September 2021: Launched the single crystal silicon carbide growth project with plans to achieve an annual production capacity of 100,000 pieces upon reaching full production.
• April 2023: Successfully developed 8-inch silicon carbide crystal samples and plans to start small-scale production by the end of the year.

TankeBlue:

• January 2023: Successfully prepared 4H-SiC single crystals with a diameter of 209 mm using the physical vapor transport (PVT) method and produced standard 8-inch SiC single crystal substrates.
• May 2023: Signed a supply agreement with Infineon and started supplying silicon carbide materials.
• August 2023: Began construction of the second-phase expansion project, planning to increase capacity by 160,000 pieces.

JSG:

• June 2023: Successfully developed 8-inch single-wafer silicon carbide epitaxial growth equipment compatible with 6 and 8 inch silicon carbide epitaxial production.
• October 2023: Achieved independent development and commissioning of 8-inch single-wafer silicon carbide epitaxial growth equipment with thickness uniformity within 1.5% and dopant uniformity within 4%.

SanAn Optoelectronics:

• Established a joint venture with STMicroelectronics to build an 8-inch silicon carbide device manufacturing plant, which is expected to start production in the fourth quarter of 2025.
• September 2023: Announced the 8-inch silicon carbide substrate with a production capacity of 12,000 pieces per month, and silicon-based gallium nitride capacity of 2,000 pieces per month.
• October 2023: Started small-scale production and sampling of 8-inch silicon carbide substrates using low-cost technology with low defect density.

SICC:

• May 2023: Signed a new substrate and ingot supply agreement with Infineon, planning to transition to 8-inch silicon carbide wafers.
• June 2023: Successfully prepared low-defect 8-inch silicon carbide crystals with a thickness exceeding 60mm.

At this year’s Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, the company announced its latest PC processor, the Snapdragon X Elite. With impressive performance metrics, this development is poised to shake up the PC processor market as Arm architecture gains ground, posing a substantial challenge to the established x86 architecture.

At this year’s Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, the company announced its latest PC processor, the Snapdragon X Elite. The launch of laptops featuring the Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite is expected in mid-2024, marking an opportune moment for a “counteroffensive.”

TrendForce indicates that Arm architecture PC processors have secured around an 11% market share this year, primarily propped up by Apple’s laptop processors. Industry insiders reveal that, in light of the growth potential in the PC processor market, semiconductor giants are increasingly adopting ARM architecture to venture into the market.

2024 Sees Laptop Upgrade Surge, Desktop Market Shrinks                  

Statistics reveal that the surge in remote work during 2020 prompted a shift in consumer preferences from desktop computers to laptops. Moreover, the ongoing establishment of cloud platforms by businesses in 2021 and 2022 has generated positive momentum, signaling a shrinking desktop market and an expanding PC market.

AI-powered PCs and Windows 12 next year are expected to ride a fresh wave of upgrades in 2024. Therefore, when PCs featuring ARM architecture become widespread, Intel and AMD may not be predominantly affected in the laptop processor business based on the x86 architecture. Instead, the desktop processor segment could face the most significant impact.

Kedar Kondap, Qualcomm’s Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Compute and Games Division, foresees an upgrade wave fueled by AI PCs next year, with further growth anticipated in 2025. It is expected that consumers will lean towards AI PCs for their next computer purchases.

The initial wave of products equipped with Qualcomm’s AI PC processors has been unveiled, aligning with the upcoming wave of device upgrades in next year. While Intel is set to launch its first AI acceleration engine, the Intel Core Ultra, featuring integrated NPU in December, its Microsoft Windows 12 certification remains a point of observation.

In a broader perspective, Intel and AMD are positioned to follow up with the AI PC trend by 2025. This coincides with the ending service of Windows 10 and the gradual implementation of Wifi 7 and 6G technologies. By 2028, they are expected to play a pivotal role in driving AI PC growth.

On another note, a South Korean analyst anticipates that the growth momentum in AI PCs hinges on when Apple incorporates AI features into Mac computers.

ARM vs. x86, Microsoft’s Crucial Role                                    

This is because Microsoft is set to launch Windows 12 next year, featuring the built-in Copilot AI assistant. It will collaborate with operating systems and software such as Windows, Edge, Microsoft 365, Outlook, and the Bing search engine, ushering in an entirely new AI-driven user experience.

Several tech giants are fiercely competing in the AI PC market, with NVIDIA and AMD investing in the development of Arm architecture processors. It’s worth mentioning that in 2016, Microsoft agreed to let Qualcomm exclusively develop Windows-compatible chips, and this agreement is set to expire in 2024. Consequently, Qualcomm may gain a strategic advantage. In contrast, the collaboration between NVIDIA and MediaTek on Arm processors might only begin to bear fruit in 2025.

As for AMD’s foray into Arm architecture research and development, whether this indicates a less optimistic outlook for the x86 market is a matter for ongoing observation. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger expressed that he isn’t concerned about Arm architecture processors vying in the PC market. From a different perspective, Intel may even consider assisting with manufacturing.

(Image: Qualcomm)

The Tokyo Motor Show, which recently opened in Japan, has garnered global attention from the automotive industry, particularly regarding EV technology, seen as the future of the automotive sector. Just like Toyota, a leader in the Japanese automotive industry, Nissan has showcased its ongoing development of Advanced Solid-State Battery (ASSB) technology at the event.

According to Nissan, the ASSB technology promises to provide double the energy density when compared to conventional liquid lithium-ion batteries, representing a significant milestone in battery innovation. Additionally, it is estimated that vehicles equipped with ASSB will experience a substantial reduction in charging times, taking only one-third of the current duration.

This development aims to address one of the fundamental challenges faced by EV users, making longer trips more convenient and practical while enhancing their overall confidence and enjoyment in electric vehicle ownership.

Kazuhiro Doi, Vice President of Nissan’s research division, believes that this technology could propel Nissan’s next generation of electric vehicles to a new level.

What’s particularly intriguing is that sports cars or supercars can utilize smaller and lighter battery packs, thereby improving handling, braking, and acceleration. Furthermore, according to Mydrivers, since ASSB batteries can operate normally in the range of room temperature to 100°C, they do not require a dedicated cooling system.

Currently, the ASSB technology is progressing according to Nissan’s previously announced plan. The first experimental production facility is still scheduled to commence operations next year, and the first mass-produced vehicle model utilizing ASSB technology is still expected to be launched in 2028.

(Photo credit: Nissan’s Facebook)