WitsView: Penetration Rate of LED TV to Accelerate; 3D TV to Enter Family in 2011

While LCD TV has grown rapidly in sales since 2006, its household popularization rate in Japan and the advanced countries in Europe and North America is approaching the peak. While the replacement of CRT with LCD TV has gradually come to an end, LCD TV needs more fresh features to attract consumers to replace their models on hand. LED BLU, which has been out there for a while, and the newly-emerged 3D technology play the critical roles in boosting the replacement.

According to WitsView, a research division of TrendForce, the penetration rate of LED TV is around 18%, or 34 million units, in 2010. However, with the improvement of the cost structure, the price of both LED BLU and LED TV panel is projected to drop substantially in 2011 compared to that of this year, which is expected to further boost the demand. It is estimated that the penetration rate of LED TV will potentially arrive at 43% next year, or 94 million units.

Nevertheless, whether the development of LED TV is plain sailing will have to rely on the LGP supply in 2011. Based on WitsView’s research, the LGP supply problem will basically become softer in 2011. Firstly, the plate and PMMA capacity continues to expand, and it will grow by at least 17% YoY; secondly, several non-PMMA LGPs’ validation gradually completed one after another. However, the fundamental problem for supply and demand is the imbalance of capacity allocation. For example, the recent sales of LED products was lower than expected at end market; accordingly, orders for LGP dropped substantially, so plate and material suppliers had to revise the utilization rate downward, which caused the unredeemable loss of capacity. Once the demand for LED TV panels starts to heat up in 2Q11, and surges in 2H11, LGP supply may not be able to fulfill the market demand.

3D TV, on the other hand, attracts numerous spotlights as well. WitsView’s projection for the penetration rate of 3D TV will potentially rise from 1.5% to 8.3% next year, and the unit shipments will be multiplied from 2.7 million units this year to 19 million units. In the various and indefinite development of 3D technology, shutter glasses, having the best performance so far, will come to be the mainstream next year, and its ratio will be up to 81%. Since the renewal frequency is high, PDP is likely to follow 3D TV’s footstep and regain its share in this niche market. It is forecast that PDP ratio will account for 28% of the 3D TV market adopting shutter glasses.
 
In terms of other minority 3D technology, due to the halved vertical resolution as well as the limited supply, the ratio of polarized glasses adoption may merely reach 17% in 2011 even though the viewing experience with polarized glasses is more comfortable than that with shutter glasses. The ultimate goal in 3D technology is the naked-eye 3D display. However, the current naked-eye 3D performance and the cost structure of 2D/3D conversion technology are not as ideal. Thus, the market share of naked-eye 3D display may merely account for 2% in 2011, and which will be mostly on 26-inch below sizes.

[Fig.1] 2009~2014 LED penetration rate projection /[Fig. 2] 2011 ratio of respective technical adoption in 3D TV