WitsView: LCD Monitor Demand Triggered in 4Q10 for CNY holiday

28 December 2010 Display

According to WitsView’s survey, shipments from the worldwide top ten LCD monitor brand vendors dropped by 1.5% MoM to 12.23M units, while SI shipments continued to grow by 3.1% MoM to 14.50M units in November. The growth was more substantial in 1HNov since it continued the shipment growth momentum of October, and it was stimulated by the appreciation of the euro in Europe. However, although the restocking for the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday has been started up since 2HNov, it remains conservative amid the weak end-market demand. Therefore, the overall market trend met our previous expectation.

Linda Lin, WitsView’s research manager, indicates that as the fiscal year-end falls in December, brand and SI shipments is expected to cut by 2~8% with the strategy of lowering the loss from inventory pile-up. Nevertheless, the overall 4Q10 brand and SI shipments will potentially add by 7% and 13% QoQ respectively. Looking into 1Q11, some orders have been scheduled to ship out earlier in 4Q10 or by 1Q11 at the latest because of the CNY holiday, and shipments are expected to be back on track in March 2011. It is estimated that brand and SI shipments may fall by 0.3% and 6.7% QoQ individually in 1Q11; however, brand shipments appear almost unchanged QoQ, thereby showing brand vendors’ expectation toward 1Q11. For new products, on the other hand, limited to LCD monitor products’ nature of high price-sensitive, sales around CNY holiday in January and February will still mainly focus on low-pricing CCFL products. LED products may only accelerate the replacement of CCFL counterparts with the decreasing costs.

Figure 1: 2010 aggregated LCD monitor shipments from top 10 brand vendors and Sis