WitsView: LCD TV Panels Shipments See Unprecedented Decrease in 2011

The global shipment of large-size panel in 3Q11 reached 176 million units with QoQ regression of 0.5%

According to the survey report published by WitsView, a research division of TrendForce, the Q3 global shipment of large-size panel has reached 1.76 million units with QoQ regression of 0.5% and YoY growth of 13%.

In terms of application categories, the distribution demands for Mid Autumn Festival and National Day Holidays in China have supported part of momentum of TV panel shipment. However, the inventory issues in European and US markets have affected the procurement strength, leading to the QoQ regression of TV panel shipment by 0.1%. The shipment of monitor panel has been affected by inventory control among downstream brands, resulting in a QoQ regression of 7%. Affected by Tablet PC products and weak demands in European and US markets, the stock preparation activities among downstream OEM makers in Q3 have been weak in NB PC market with only a QoQ growth of 1.6% for NB panel shipment. Overall Tablet PC panel shipment has been driven by the procurement in Kindle Fire supply chain leading to a QoQ growth of 24%. With Tablet PC specifications gradually moving towards high definition development, the actual demand of Netbook market has been gradually reflected by the shipment performance of Netbook panel with a QoQ regression of 24.1% in Q3.

Figure 1:

Source: WitsView, Units: K pieces

WitsView research manager Jian-An Chen indicates that by comparing the shipment performance of LCD TV panel (which is the most crucial application affecting the digestion of panel production capacity) to the past, it can be found that there is actually a YoY regression of 8.4% in Q3 this year. During 2006~2010, incremental YoY growths of panel shipment can be found in every quarter of every year (expect for 2008 4Q under the impact of financial tsunami). This year the overall market. impacted by debt crisis in Europe and US, high unemployment rate and high inflation, has in turn caused the downstream TV brands and channels to adopt tighter inventory control.  As a result, most of the makers were digesting the finished goods and panel inventories purchased panel from last year. Downstream brands have been shying away from aggressive procurement due to falling panel price, leading to QoQ and YoY regressions of TV panel shipment in Q3 2011. The previous incremental TV panel shipment growth did not occur in Q2 and Q3 2011. With pessimistic Q4 forecast on TV panel demand, WitsView projects a first-ever annual regression for TV panel shipment for 2011 with YoY regression of 1~3%.

Figure 2:

Source: WitsView