WitsView: LCD Monitor Shipments Projected To Fall by 3% ~ 5% QoQ in First Quarter of 2012

According to the Top Ten Monitor Brand and SI Shipment Survey by WitsView, a research division of Trendforce, both segments experienced shipment declines in 4Q11. Specifically, brand shipments fell by 4.7% QoQ and 7% YoY. Meanwhile, SI shipments slipped by 5.1% QoQ and 12% YoY. The shipment decrease can be attributed to the following reasons. First, some of the demand was moved up from 4Q11 to the end of 3Q11. Second, the persisting European debt crisis and slow global economic recovery weakened the retailers’ inventory pull-in momentum. Third, although panel prices stabilized in 4Q11, the still sluggish end market demand weighed on a possible rebound, rendering brand vendors and retailers to cautiously pull-in inventory. Fourth, even though some preparations for the 2012 Chinese Lunar New Year holidays were moved up to 4Q11, most SI and brand vendors were busy controlling their year-end inventory levels. Thus, they needed to perform stricter controls on their relevant inventory and shipments.

In terms of the outlook for the aggregated brand and SI LCD monitor shipments in 1Q12, as European countries focus on reducing their overall debt, coupled by the persisting EU credit contraction, not only will this impact the region’s economies, it will also affect the export momentum of other related countries. Thus, WitsView expects shipments to continue to fall between 3%~5% QoQ and 3% YoY in 1Q12. However, it is worthy to note that this trend is expected to see a turnaround in Feb12 and Mar12, as brand vendors prepare to launch new models during the spring season.

For 2012, with the uncertainty still surrounding the global economy, WitsView believes the overall large-sized LCD monitor demand will be flat, where shipments (including AIO) are currently forecast to grow by a mere 2.7% YoY to 1.84 million units. Specifically, LCD monitors are predicted to inch up by 1.7% YoY to 1.70 million units, while AIO products will witness a 17.4% annual growth. In light of the weak performance in 2011, manufacturers are aggressively trying to create new business opportunities. A key focus now centers on the potential of emerging markets. Due to the regions’ higher price sensitivity, and the continuing drops in the production cost of LED-backlit monitors, such products are gaining in popularity. At the moment, many brand vendors plan to launch the low-cost 200 nits LED monitor in replacing the 250 nits CCFL-backlit models. The main display sizes include the 18.5”W, 20”W and the 21.5”W. For 2012, there is a strong likelihood to see the low-cost 200 nits LED monitor take up a 10% market share in 2012.

Figure 1: Top 10 brand and SI monitor shipment forecast during 1Q11~1Q12 period
 
Source: WitsView (unit: 10K)