TrendForce：European Solar Firms May Transfer Orders to Taiwanese Companies

Due to the European Union’s announcement of starting an anti-dumping investigation on Chinese solar product imports, Taiwanese manufacturers have a shot at receiving more orders. According to EnergyTrend, the green energy research division of TrendForce, several companies’ sales representatives have recently gone on business trips to Europe and the United States. Although Solar Power International 2012 is ongoing at the moment, it is evident that the business in Europe is to start picking up. Orders may start to pour in as the European market becomes more vital.

According to the information EU released, the initial ruling will be announced within nine months, with the final ruling following six months later. Related manufacturers predict that since EU might complete the investigation within three to six months, European companies, in fear of statute of limitations and the operation crisis that Chinese firms may face, will transfer the orders soon. According to EnergyTrend survey, Chinese companies have enacted measures to respond to any possible crisis, including cutting down labor costs and setting up production bases in different foreign locations to avoid the EU regulations. According to EnergyTrend, Southeastern Asia, Eastern Europe, and America are places where Chinese manufacturers may establish their new plant. Although Taiwan will not be amongst the Chinese companies’ preferential choices, with EU’s investigation and Chinese manufacturers’ possible production adjustments, Taiwanese firms may receive more orders from European companies in 4Q12 and 1Q12, which will largely increase their capacity utilization rates. However, the market outlook after 2Q13 will still depend on the initial ruling and Chinese manufacturers’ strategy.

Last week’s spot prices took a steep dive due to the fact that EU will most likely start an investigation. However, after EU’s announcement, the price downtrend began to curb. EnergyTrend believes in the short run, the prices in different markets will differ. Polysilicon’s lowest price came down to $17.0/kg and ASP slid to $19.555/k, a 2.68% decrease. As for multi-Si wafers, the mainstream prices in China fell between $0.96/piece and $0.98/piece, and the price in Taiwan dropped to $1.0/piece. However, the shipments have seen a decline recently, which is expected to persist. Multi-Si wafer ASP dipped to $0.99/piece, a 2.94% decrease. As for mono-Si wafers, affected by the announcement of investigation and the drastic price drop of multi-Si products, spot prices continued to drop – ASP dropped to $1.268/piece, a 2.31 decrease. As for cell and module, related manufacturers noted that in order to acquire orders, they have offered more room for price negotiations. Based on the recent bidding projects, prices of cells with a conversion efficiency of 17.0% ranged between $0.36/Watt and $0.38/Watt. With the price downtrend in China persisting, cell ASP plummeted to $0.392/Watt, a 5.54 decrease. Module ASP dropped to $0.687/Watt, a 0.29% decrease.

Source：ErengyTrend