TrendForce：a surge of replacement for LCD TV in 2013?

According to WitsView, the display research division of TrendForce, the medium-and large-sized LCD product demands in 2012 are hurt by the global economical slowdown, except for tablets showing large growth, the overall end market demand is soft. The global LCD TV shipment is estimated at 206 million units with a small YoY growth of 2.7%. For the global LCD TV market forecast in 2013, WitsView indicates it would possibly reach 215 million units, growing by 4.4% YoY (see table 1).

Table 1. The forecast for global LCD TV brands’ shipments in 2013(million units)

Source：WitsView

Supported by the energy-saving subsidy policy in China, Chinese LCD TV brands show the strong YoY growth of 18%-19% and account for 23.8% of the worldwide market, topping Japan’s 22.4% for the first time. Regarding to the market forecast in 2013, Chinese brands would hold a shipment growth of around 10%-13% and a climbing market share of 24%-25%. Japanese brands would see weakening growth momentum and a declining market share of 21%-22%. The two major Korean brands would still be the hands-down leaders with a market share of around 33%.

According to information collected by WitsView, Korean brands’ procurement proportion form CMI would decline slightly to 8.2% in 2013 as some orders are shifted to AUO, leading to their procurement proportion from AUO to 13.1%, up from 8.9% this year. Japanese brands’ panel procurement proportion from AUO would be revised up to 20.4% next year, from 9% this year, mainly lifted by SONY’s order of 5-6 million units. Japanese brands’ procurement proportion from CMI and SDC would be both cut by 4%-5% to 20% and 24.4%, respectively. Next year China top six brands’ procurement proportion from Chinese panel makers would surge to 19.4% from 14% this year, while the procurement from the remaining panel makers would be lowered by 1%-2% (table 1). 

Figure 1. The global LCD TV brands’ panel procurement plans for 2013 (units)

Source：WitsView

Based on WitsView’s estimates, the penetration rate of LED LCD TV is around 70.3% in 2012 and would surge to 85%-90% in 2013, while the direct type LED penetration is nearly 10.5% this year and would be further lifted to 18%-20% in 2013. The penetration rate of 3D TV is around 19.9% this year with a forecast penetration rate of 25%-26% in 2013. For new sizes, with the newly launched 58” products, three major Japanese brands and Chinese brands are expected to plan the application with the TV set priced at $799, leading to the cut-throat competition among large-sized LCD TVs. The 32” has been the first LCD TV set at home since 2005, and it is worth market paying attention to if the larger TV would replace the smaller one when above 40” TVs show significant price drops.

However, the market is highly anticipating the debut of i-TV, which would boost Smart TV sales. But the existing Smart TVs are limited to software contents and insufficient support of system operators, therefore the integration of 4K2K high resolution TVs and PC software functions may expand new market for Smart TVs. The issues regarding to technologies and interest conflicts between related industries are not easy to solve, and the practices would show different effects in various regions.  
 
Taking China for example, in the condition of one party ruling and politics leading economy, the implementation of censored contents is easier with top six brands’ penetration rate among Smart TVs at around 25% this year and expectedly lifted to 45% in China in 2013. On the other hand, the Smart TV’s penetration rate is merely around 10% in North America. Although 4K2K high resolution LCD TV products still have concerns on insufficient contents, the first-tier brands such as Samsung, LGE, SONY, and Toshiba who  possess  high end solution of F/H IC switching technologies will release 4K2K LCD TVs of various sizes while Chinese brands are even more aggressive on applications. All panel makers wish to improve the exiting panel price structure that is relatively low and increase profits by promoting high standard products. Besides, the narrow bezel design demand climbs, contributing to an avoidable trend of narrowed LCD TV bezels.