TrendForce：Taiwanese LCD TV SI shipment YoY growth to reach two digits in 2013

According to WitsView, the display research division of TrendForce, the Taiwanese LCD TV SI shipment amounted to 10.31 million units in Q3, climbing 19.6% QoQ. With the hot season support, the shipment in Q4 would continue the Q3 growth momentum, showing a QoQ increase of 9%-11%. However, affected by the global economic slowdown, brands held a conservative attitude toward releasing orders, resulting in the first quarterly contraction in Taiwanese LCD TV SI shipment in the history with a projected YoY decrease of 13%-14% and a plummeting shipment of 37-38 million units.     

Looking ahead in 2013, the panel demand supply situation would still be relatively healthy. The possible panel short supply before the hot season would prompt brands to further increase orders through SI makers’ panel procurement advantages. Hence, based on WitsView’s projection, the Taiwanese LCD TV SI shipment in 2013 would reach the volume of 42-44 million units, surging 10%-14% YoY, among which Unihan and TPV would outperform the peers. (Table1)
   
WitsView indicates that, the factors that lifted Taiwanese LCD TV shipment growth in Q3 were following: 1.tight panel supply forced brands to increase orders through SI makers’ panel procurement advantage to ensure panel supply but it implied the potential risks of overstocking; 2. certain Chinese TV brands raised OEM units; 3. Japanese brands intended to largely lift market share in H2’12. With the coming of Oct 1st holidays and year end Christmas holidays in the US and Europe, Taiwanese LCD TV SI makers showed significantly better performance in H2’12 than H1’12.

In addition to brand’s OEM orders, currently SI makers’ BMS (Backlight Module System) business is also a recent hot topic in the market, for example, Briview uses BMS as its main business model. Briview is expected to ship around 5-6 million units by BMS this year and would see a multiple shipment of 13-15 million units next year, to mainly Japanese brand clients.

Originally brands and SI makers applied BMS OEM model in consideration of Eco-system and expected the cost advantages that followed. However, the panel supply turned to be tight beginning Q2’12, under the pressure of pursuing profits and improving operational performance, panel makers seemed to be very aggressive to lift open-cell prices. The development seriously damped BMS profitability. Since the BMS model involves not only set, open-cell, packing, materials, logistics, and RMA service, but the supply chain integration and management is another major challenge. It is still unknown if the model can realize profits and lift product competition.   

Table1、The projection for LCD TV SI shipments in 2013(BMS shipment exlcuded)units: '000 pcs

Source：WitsView