TrendForce：2013 NB market struggles in turbulence with constrained growth

According to the latest shipment survey by WitsView, the display research division of the global intelligence provider TrendForce, the 2013 global NB shipment is projected at 175 million units. In view of the quarterly result, the Q1 NB shipment attained 39 million units, dropping 15.5% from Q4 last year and declining 12.2% from the same period last year. Q2 is supported by the lower Q1 basis period and new models launched by some brands, but Haswell platform’s new models showcased in June will be the quad-core high-end models and see limited market acceptance, WitsView’s forecast for the Q2 shipment increase is only around 5-7% QoQ. The ratio between the shipments in the first and the second halves of this year is projected at 46:54 because the NBs using Intel’s new Haswell platform, or brands’ Ultrabook/Ultra-like NBs touting for more appealing prices, or the strongly-promoted low-priced touch NBs all plan to attack the market in H2’13. 

WitsView indicates that the 2013 NB market sees constrained growth momentum due to the following reasons: 1. the uncertainties in the global political and economic outlook cause negative influences to the market; 2. large-sized smart phones and low-priced tablets remain the top choices for consumers; 3. the Window 8 launch doesn’t stir consumers’ desire to purchase, or the demand for a new operating system is much weaker than that for a new and stylish product; 4. both the Ultra-book and the touch NB are still expensive.
    
More products of the 11.6” and the 13.3” will hit the market this year. As Microsoft has announced the 50% discount on the operating system of the under 11.6”NB, the 11.6”models without high resolution and wide-viewing angle, featuring the touch function, and priced under $400 become the promotion focus for brands. The 13.3” size, lighter than the 14” and the 15.6”, is more suitable for document processing than the 11.6”. In addition, the 13.3” segment has been dominated by Apple, while other brands held small proportions, hence, the 13.3” will be the best choice for other brands to launch Ultrabook.

HD remains the mainstream, but the beyond FHD products accelerate growth this year. The 13.3” Kirabook by Toshiba is equipped with the IPS panel and the 2560x1440 resolution, and the PPI is as high as 220, comparable with Apple’s 13.3” (2560x1600) of 226 PPI. More brands will expectedly showcase similar high-end models to appeal to specific consumers. WitsView believes the penetration rate for the FHD panels and above will reach 13-15%, and the touch NB penetration rate will attain as high as 11-13%.