TrendForce: Panel Quotation in Turbulence, Peak Season Price Surge Depends on Demand and Supply

According to the latest panel price survey for the second half of June by WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the price drops for LCD TV modules and Open Cells are around US$2-5, more significant than that of the previous month. (Table 1.)

Table 1. TV Open Cell Panel Price

Source: WitsView

WitsView indicates that the Q1 global LCD TV shipment was 45.2 million units, declining 26.7% QoQ, and the Q2 growth is projected to be only 4-5%. The LCD TV shipment in May attained around 16.1 million units, declining 0.5% MoM, and the shipment drop for June is estimated to be 5-6%, showing the relatively weak demand. Contrarily, the LCD TV panel shipment in May was 20.3 million units, surging 4.8% MoM, and in view of glut ratio for the single month, the panel over supply is very obvious, causing large pressure to the following TV panel prices.

Sharp lifts the 32” production, changing the previously balanced demand and supply, and the price drops for the 32” panel s and open cells are in the range of zero to US$1. The 39”panels and open cells see price declines, but the drops vary, depending on clients, around US$1-US$3. The 42” panels and open cells see price drops around US$1-US$3 as prices for the 39” and the 40” continue to drop.

The 46”-and-above panels and open cells expectedly show price drops around USD2-USD5, especially the 50” panel that sees an US$3-US$5 price decline, and the prices for some special deals may be lower than the regular level. Panel makers wish to ease the price drops for the 42” and below in a hope to support the price in the peak season, and the price-cutting war is declared in advanced for the 46” and above due to new capacities and new sizes.

The LCD monitor panel is still influenced by the limited panel supply, seeing a steady price or even a small increase. The 18.5W has an USD1-1.5 price increase, and some clients accept price increases for the 19” (5:4) and the 20”W. The 21.5W sees a small decline of USD 0.5 due to Chinese panel makers’ capacity expansion in G8.5. The price drops for the 23.6W and 24W products narrow to USD0.5-USD1, depending on clients’ demands, while the price-cutting pressure eases for the 27W due to the production shift and the Q3 urgent order effect.

We have revised down the 2013 global NB demand to 169.1 million units, declining 8.6% YoY, and the NB panel shipment to 188 million units, from 197-202 million units, but the NB panel over supply remains. Due to the sluggish economy outlook, the constrained personal consumption, and the squeeze from tablets, the market is full of uncertainties. The NB shipment was around 13.5 million units in May, surging 12.9% MoM and declining 6-7% YoY, and it is expected to grow 7-8% MoM in June and dropping 10-11% YoY. As the end market remains unclear, and the semi-annual financial results are about to settle in June, panel makers maintain aggressive shipment strategies, and the price drop for the current month is around USD 0.1-0.3.

WitsView research director Burrell Liu says that brands control the inventory in hands tightly due to the tough economic condition. The traditional slow market, China’s ending slow season, the slowing demands from clients, uncertainties in the market prompt brands to hold off purchase even with ample room for procurement. As panel makers’ utilization rate remains high, they need to adjust capacities appropriately to stop panel price drops in the short-term.

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