TrendForce: 2014 Large-sized TFT-LCD Competition Intensifies, Panel Makers Seek Ways to Generate Profits

According to WitsView, the display division of the global intelligence provider TrendForce, panel makers seek to optimize the utilization and lift value added on products in 2013 as they try to stop losses. Despite China’s subsidy policy and the continuously growing panel sizes in the current year cease makers’ long-term losses, the three G8.5 fabs belonging to SDC, BOE, and LGD in China getting operational in 2014 will aggravate the TFT-LCD capacity expansion race among makers.

In view of the 2014 panel industry development, WitsView indicates Taiwan-based makers would devote to product diversification, especially a visual war of 4K2K and high color saturation. In response to the weak IT panel demand, they switch the IT production lines to touch sensors and integrate the in-house panels to provide a cost-advantageous vertically-integrated touch sensor solution. Korean makers depend on stable client structure and continue to upgrade the wide-viewing angle technology, stirring an IPS wave in the IT panel market and gaining traction among clients such as Apple, Samsung, and Amazon. 

Chinese makers focus on size diversification in hope to answer Chinese brand clients’demands for diverse sizes as the new capacity gets operational. On the other hand, they work aside the official policies to lift the panel shelf-sufficient percentage. Japanese makers not only put every effort on the 60”-and-above products but offer lighter, slimmer, and higher-resolution mobile device panels with IGZO and LTPS technologies in order to win a share in the mid-and small-sized segment

WitsView believes that the 2014 large-sized TFT-LCD market development should be centered on large TVs, 50”-and-under UHD TVs, the reshuffle of the mid-and small-sized panel production lines, and the LTPS technology.

1、Trend of growing sizes is established with an average size of 40.8” for 2014

For the last three years, the TV panel market has been influenced by Chinese government’s subsidy policy and launches of smart TVs and low-priced large TVs, and the average TV panel size has been rising significantly since 2011. The momentum driving up the 2014 average size is the expanding share of the 40”-and-above panels as Korean and Chinese makers reveals actively the 48”/49”, while the 50”, 55”, 60”, and 65” are getting popularized. WitsView estimates a 5% growth in the 2014 TV panel demand by area and an average size growing to 40.8”.

2、Chinese brands boost shipments, 50”-and-under UHD TVs account for near 60% of UHD TV panels in 2014

INX leads the way to introduce the 39” and 42” UHD TV panels, and with Chinese brands’ volumetric adoption, the 50”-and-under UHD TV panel shipment rises more than 5 times in Q3’2013 from Q1. The other makers also aggressively develop the 50”-and-under UHD products as they wish to enter the Chinese UHD TV market with affordable selling prices and Chinese brands’ strong promotions. Based on panel makers’ BP, the 50”-and-under UHD TV panels will control 60% of the overall UHD TV panels in 2014.

3、5% growth in mid-and small sized panel production in Gen5-and-above fabs in 2014

With the rising demand for mobile devices including large-sized smart phones and tablets and on concern of profitability and production efficiency, panel makers will use larger generations to produce mid-and small-sized panels for smart phones and tablets. In view of global top five panel makers’ capacity, the smart phone and tablet panel proportion in Gen5-and-above fabs will rise 5% in 2014 from 2013, according to WitsView.

4、Upgraded tablet resolution is a new opportunity for LTPS back plane

LTPS technology, with its advantage of high electronics mobility, easily applies to high-end panels featuring high-resolution (330ppi and above) and ultra-narrow bezel and successfully attracts the adoption of clients including Amazon and Google on the new Kindle Fire HD/HDX and Nexus 7 models. Since the tablet fever in 2010, the consumers are getting demanding on the resolution as the 7.x” and 8.x” achieve to upgrade the resolution in 2013. Despite the market is crowded by low-priced tablets, brands with economic-scale production such as Apple, Samsung, Google, and Amazon must launch higher-resolution products, 350ppi and beyond, on concern of lifting competitiveness and brand image. This will be a new opportunity for the next LTPS technology, which sees a penetration rate of the tablet panel shipment rising continuously from 2% in 2013.

Looking ahead to 2014, large-sized panel demand by units surges 1.5% to 815 million units. Tablet panel shipment rises 16% YoY to 266 million units, LCD TV panel demand is 228.7 million units, monitor panel shipment is 153 million units and 10.1”-and-above NB panel demand reaches 166 million units. Large-sized panel demand by area attains 142.6 million units, rising 2.4% YoY.