TrendForce：PV Spot Price May Increase in Q2 Due to Process Delay on US-China Anti-dumping and Countervailing Investigation

The US Department of Commerce announced on March, 11^th that the anti-subsidy initial judgment for certain Chinese crystalline silicon PV products will be extended from March, 28^th to June, 2^nd. EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, indicates that the delay will stimulate PV market demand and in turn boost the price.

“Current market supply and demand is in good shape. Demand from March to May is rather stable. Also, June demand forecast has started to show after the US announced the delay. Manufacturers, such as Trina, Yingli, Renesola, and CSI have aggressively placed orders and sold the products to the US market,” said Arthur Hsu, research manager of EnergyTrend.

On the other hand, according to EnergyTrend’s investigation, price trend in 2Q14 will remain steady. Poly price will be around US$23/kg (ASP); high-efficiency wafer price is between US$1.05-1.07/piece (ASP) while normal-grade is about US$1.0/piece (ASP); for cell, Taiwanese manufacturers’ high-efficiency cell price will remain at US$0.41-0.42/watt (ASP), which shows that Q2 price may be flat. Market price is likely to increase further due to the delay on the anti-subsidy initial judgment. In addition, more demand may come from North America in Q2, and the demand in Japan and Europe will be recoverd too. Hence, manufacturers’ utilization rate will increase and in turn raise the price. EnergyTrend predicts  that poly price will be US$25/kg in Q2 and high-efficiency wafer price will be US$1.1/piece. As for Taiwan’s high-efficiency solar cell, price could exceed US$0.42/watt.

In terms of spot market, recent demand is still high, with March price being steady. However, due to the less demand in Japan in March, first-tier module manufacturers’ utilization rate will be stable, but second/third-tier ones’will decrease.

Poly price in Taiwan started to increase, with last week’s average price reaching US$20.175/kg, a 0.83% rise. For multi-si wafer, Taiwanese manufacturers have raised the price while Chinese manufacturers revised the price downward slightly. Last week’s average price came to US$1.058/piece, a 0.86% rise. For mono-si wafer, demand still increased in a slow-pace. Last week’s price was US$1.212/piece, a 0.5% rise. Lastly, cell and module price remained flat.