Spec Shift in TV and IT Panels Brings Hopes to Prices for 2H’14, says TrendForce

The 32”-42” panel prices increase USD 1-3 and the 46”-55” panels show narrowed prices drops in April 2014, according to TrendForce panel research division WitsView’s latest mid-and large-sized panel shipment research report.

The monitor panel capacity was still constrained, the 21.5” monitor panel saw a small increase USD 0.2, and the 24”W was affected by the capacity adjustment and order transfer of 23.6” W TN. The 23.6”W and 24”W TN panel prices will stay flat or rise by USD 0.3. The remaining main sizes of monitor panels will see unchanged prices. 

NB panel prices stay stable, the overall 14.0” and 15.6” HD Wedge and Flat panel prices stay flat or increase slightly by USD 0.1-0.3. The 14.0” Wedge and Flat prices stay flat or rise slightly. The overall 17.3” and 11.6” prices stay flat, and the 13.3” price sees USD 0.1-0.2 drop. 

“Korean monitor panel makers’ spec shift from TN products to IPS and PLS, and Taiwanese panel makers focus on WV wide-viewing-angle technology,” indicates WitsView. “Besides, Microsoft’s rebate program on AIO models and the factors including TV shipment distribution cause an even tighter situation in the monitor market.”  

On the other hand, the NB shipment is affected by Microsoft’s latest subsidy program on all sizes and the growing shipment of new models, and the NB shipment growth in Q2 is revised up to 3% from previously projected -3%.

As the demands for smartphones of international brands heat up, some panel makers transfer some of NB capacity in G5 fabs to smartphone panels, which is expected to continue through mid-Q3.
With NB panel makers’ continuous shift of the spec to Flat, IPS, and FHD, some panel capacities are constrained and prices will be supported or continue to rise through mid-Q3. 

As the overall LCD TV brands’ panel and set inventory remain healthy, and with Korean TV brands’ strategic replenishment and Chinese panel restock getting influential, the set and panel distribution start in advance. The LCD TV brands’ shipment in Q2 will reach 49.6 M units, rising 4-5% QoQ and 7% YoY, based on WitsView’s forecast. The Q2 panel shipment comes to 60.4 M units, rising 7-8% QoQ and 3% YoY, higher than expected.

“The TV market outlook relies on if Chinese top six brands and Korean brands can effectively control TV set and panel inventory,” says WitsView Research Director Burrell Liu. “ If Korean and Chinese brands continue to restock aggressively, the risk of sudden collapse of panel prices in mid-Q3 will surge significantly.”

If LCD TV brands conduct inventory adjustment in Q2, the panel prices will be supported before the upcoming peak season in Q3. However, while the NB and monitor panels go through product spec shift and tighten supply in the slow season May and June, the developments of new sizes 43” and 39.5”, MMG products, curved TV panels and new and large 4K2K panels of the LCD TV panel capacity will continue after mid-July, when brands prepare for replenishment. The panel industry may see signs in price increases before the 2H’14 peak season coming.