Utilization Rates to Drop by the End of June, Long-Term Demand may Increase After Anti-Dumping Preliminary Verdict Announcements, says TrendForce

Impacted by the surprising initial verdict on unfair subsidies for Chinese solar panels announced by the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC), PV manufacturers in both China and Taiwan are now on their toes anticipating the preliminary verdict for product dumping announcement by the end of July. Moreover, with one extra month reserved for manufacturers to deal with transportation and customs issues on the schedule, changes towards market condition in the end of June are emerging. Based on EnergyTrend’s observations, Taiwanese cell manufacturers’ utilizations rate remained high between the beginning of June and mid-June. However, the utilization rates  will substantially drop by the end of June.

Taiwanese cell manufacturers’ utilization rates will significantly decline in the end of June, which will affect cell price quotes, according to EnergyTrend’s supply chain investigation. Relevant manufacturers indicated that judging from current condition, cell manufacturers will have enough capacity to handle extra OEM orders for the end of June. In addition, OEM price quotes dropped 15%-20% compared to the beginning of 2Q14. OEM prices at current stage are around US$0.15/watt. In terms of scales, relevant manufacturers can provide 5MW of capacity for OEM during the end of June. Aside from the decreased OEM quotations, cell price quotes have also declined. Indicated by EnergyTrend’s statistics, Chinese manufacturers’ price quotes began to drop since May, while Taiwanese manufacturers’ started to decline in June. Meanwhile, certain manufacturers’ current price quotes have fallen below US$0.4/watt.

On the other hand, PV manufacturers in China and Taiwan continue to follow-up as the anti-subsidy initial verdict may be a reference to the anti-dumping preliminary verdict in the end of July. Therefore, once manufacturers have completed shipments in mid-June, US demand will turn weak before the anti-dumping initial verdict annoucement in July. If Japanese and European demand can’t fulfill the decreased US demand, Taiwanese cell manufacturers’ utilization rates will substantially decline in the short run. However, if the anti-dumping initial verdict in the end of July happens to benefit Taiwan, Taiwanese manufacturers’ utilization rates will rebound substantially in August.

Affected by the increased granular polysilicon price quotes, this week’s polysilicon prices rose 0.3% to US$20.426/kg. Due to weaker demand, this week’s multi-si wafer prices declined 0.5% to US$0.986/piece. Mono-si wafer prices slightly decreased 0.33% to US$1.198/piece. Cell quotations for Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers continued to fall. This week’s cell prices came to US$0.369/watt, which is a 0.27% dip. Because multi-si module demand and prices kept dropping, si-based module prices decreased 0.5% to US$0.598/watt.