TrendForce：Demand for TV panels resilient as IT panel market cools

The global television panel market has been hot all year, and is expected to remain robust for the foreseeable future while the IT panel market is set to moderately cool in the fourth quarter and remain that way into 2015, according to WitsView, a subsidiary of the Taiwan-based global market intelligence TrendForce. A number of factors are contributing to that change in market conditions, in particular production constraints caused by low yield rates on increasingly large TVs. “IT panel prices rose steadily in the past three quarters, but we expect to see that taper off over the next few months,” said Eric Chiou, senior research director at WitsView. 

In the first half of the year, Chinese television display vendors only shipped 38-40% of their domestic quota for 2014 and so need to take advantage of promotions in the final quarter to boost sales. But competition is fierce. There are supply shortages for certain TV sizes because international manufacturers have kept up procurement orders. Chinese vendors should push smaller-sized TV panels, including 32W, 39.5W and 40W to boost sales, Chiou said, adding that 48W, 49W and 55W are also important because the demand for larger size TVs is increasing. These popular sizes have risen in price US$1-$3 on average this month. 

When TV display regional sales figures are announced at the end of October and November, the results will be mixed. Manufacturers with fewer sales may alter their procurement strategies to reduce inventory and lower inventory value before issuing year-end financial statements. As a result, sales of TV panels may gradually slow after October. 

The fourth quarter is not typically peak time for computer monitor sales. But because there is a high degree of correlation between computer monitor and TV display sales, as long as demand for TV panels remains healthy, the impact of the non-peak season on the monitor market will be limited in the short term. 

Among computer monitors, the prices of 19W and 19.5W still rank highest. OEM and suppliers have faced supply shortages for the two sizes, and average price quotes were up US$0.5-1. Prices for other sizes were about the same or increased incrementally by US$0.3. 

Notebook panel sales have gotten a boost from business orders and back-to-school demand, with consumer notebook models driving an expected 8% growth in shipments in the third quarter. Still, with demand in Europe and China relatively weak, the outlook for the fourth quarter is not especially optimistic. 

Among notebook panels, demand for the 15.6W was relatively strong, but the previous month’s US$0.6-US$0.8 price increase fell to US$0.4-$0.5. The 14W’s price quotes went up slightly US$0.1-$0.2. Yet because of leaked price quotes, notebook panel prices will be volatile in October.