TrendForce: Rational Expand Production Capacity in 2015, Bigger Solar Players Set to Continue Market Domination

The global demand is expected to reach 51.4GW in 2015, with an annual demand growth rate of 16.5% and an increased installation of 7GW compared to 2014, according to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce. In terms of the supply end, the Chinese makers has announced to expand production capacity in 2015, with an increase of 4.2GW in module production capacity, taking up 8.2% of the worldwide demand; non-Chinese module makers will increase production capacity by 1.1GW, which is approximately 2% of the worldwide demand. 

Angus Kao, analyst at EnergyTrend, indicates that in 2015, the majority of the solar makers will be expanding production capacity in a more rational manner; the increased production capacity will mainly be on par with the increased demands. However, the trend that the bigger players will remain strong has already emerged. In addition to the existing production advantage, the bigger makers also have international level of brand management, with higher brand recognition. Therefore, the future key to winning the market will depend on who can first complete the global strategic planning, diversifying to minimize the risk, and strengthen the technology and quality, enter the PV system business, and make use of the sales channel advantages. 

Angus Kao further indicates that, due to the new U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties final ruling, it is expected to accelerate the new module plant establishment in various countries in Southeast Asia. A projected new production capacity of 1GW or more in this area is also expected, and this is another focal point to look out for in the future. 

This week’s spot-market prices 

Due to China’s increased import volume and also affected by the sufficient stocking, polysilicon prices remain weak, falling at 1.49%, and the average price fell to US$19.8/kg. As for the wafers, due to the continue falling prices for the upstream multi-si raw material, the wafer prices have began to be affected. High efficiency multi-si wafer and mono-si wafers both fell slightly by 0.44%, and the spot prices are US$0.901/pc and US$1.14/pc, respectively. As for the solar cells, since there are no other policy factors affecting the price, the deep price plunge is looking back up, the solar cell price quotes are generally rising. In addition to the effect of next year’s mainstream specifications for modules are rising to 260W, the high efficiency solar cells are clearly going strong, with a spot price increase of 0.9%, and the average price hits US$0.335/w. 

In terms of the modules, since the multi-si module product’s main stream specifications are going to be increased to 260-265W, along with no expected factors pushing for large scale price increase, the 250-255W module price dropped slightly by 0.35%, with an average price of US$0.573/w. Due to the U.S. and European holidays and weather factors, Mono-si modules orders decreased, with a mild price drop of 0.31% this week.