End of Price Upturn for TV Panels as Large-Size and 4K Panels Face Underquote Pressure, TrendForce Reports

The panel price for each panel application has been constant for January 2015, akin to last month’s market environment, according to the newest price report by WitsView, a research division of TrendForce. The prices for IT panels are weak relative to prices for TV panels, which temporarily remain constant. 

“At current phase, panel makers are not going to adjust their capacity utilization,” said WitView’s Senior Research Director, Eric Chiou, with regard to the market forecast. “The IT panels’ oversupply problem persists,” Chiou continued, “so prices for monitor and notebook panels will continue to fall for a while.” As for TV panels, the shipment decline during the off-season is having a negative price impact that should be not taken lightly even as particular brands are being stocked. Hence, the next focus should be on possible changes to quotes on large-size panels (55 inches and above) and 4K panels. 

For TV panels, most brands presently have kept a healthy stock level at around two weeks. However, the global LCD TV market may fall in shipments by about 25% in the first quarter of 2015. Besides seasonal factors, brands will slow down shipments as a way to adjust their inventories in the retailers. “The current price stability that TV panels enjoy does not mean it won’t be affected by off-season,” said Chiou, “and this month’s price rise is coming to an end.” Prices will flatten as exceeding demands for panels sized 50 inches and below start to subside and the market reaches an equilibrium. As for extra large-size TV panels, prices will continue to fall because the demands for extra large-size TVs have been relative weak and limited. This price slide affects panels sized 60 and 65 inches, showing a fall of US$ 5~8. Panel manufacturers also seem to lower their quotes on 4K panels as a means to increase the level of market acceptance. 

Regarding monitor panels, WitsView projects the first quarter monitor set shipments to decline by 6%. Monitor panels are unable to dispel signs of oversupply due to weakening demands and lack of marketable products. The production capacity released by the Generation 6 line means that panels sized 19.5 and 21.5 inches will be the firsts to be affected by the price drop, ranging from US$ 0.7~0.8 for January. Panels sized 27 inches and above will continue to drop their prices, at around US$ 1. Monitor panels of other sizes will have an average price fall ranging US$ 5~7. 

The sharply depreciated currencies of emerging markets such as Russia and Brazil is having a direct impact on the notebook market in these countries. Brand names with large shares in these emerging markets will see a drastic decrease in shipments in the first quarter of 2015, possibly surpassing 20%. This wave of currency depreciation adds another variable to the off-season price projections for display panels. The mainstream 14 and 15.6-inch notebook panels have the most noticeable price drop in January, averaging around US$ 0.6 to US$ 0.7. Panels of other sizes also have their prices fallen at least by an average of US$ 0.5. One thing worth mentioning is that in addition to trading based on monthly prices, the number of contract-based negotiations on notebook panels has seen an increase in the recent months. This trend indicates that the extent of the actual price decline may be more severe behind closed doors.