Battery Cell Prices Continue to Decline in August, but Demand Could Improve in September, Says TrendForce

TrendForce reports that the market for battery metals such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium remained weak in August, with prices for these raw materials continuing to fall. Most notably, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate dropped sharply in August—seeing a 16% quarterly decline—while some lithium concentrate prices fell below US$800/ton. 

Following a drop in the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate below CNY 90,000/ton in July, a new historic low was set in August as the price further decline below CNY 80,000/ton. The continued drop in cobalt and nickel salts also triggered declines in prices for cathodes, electrolytes, and other battery components.

TrendForce noted that battery cell prices continued to fall in August due to the reduced cost of LiB materials. Prices for EV cells decreased by 4% MoM, the average price for square LFP cells dropped below CNY 0.4/Wh, while square ternary and pouch ternary EV battery cells averaged CNY 0.46/Wh and CNY 0.48/Wh, respectively.

Demand for grid-scale ESS battery cells continued to improve in August, driving sustained growth in 314 Ah orders. The trend toward larger capacity energy storage cells remains unchanged, and prices continued to decline. The ASP for LFP energy storage cells fell to about CNY 0.35/Wh in August—a 6% monthly drop. 

Lithium carbonate prices have begun to stabilize after reaching a low point in late August. Although an oversupply of lithium carbonate continues to exert pressure on the Chinese market, the effects of production cuts upstream are gradually becoming apparent. After a period of inventory reduction across the supply chain, demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the traditional peak season (Sept–Oct), prompting increased stocking activity downstream. This may lead to a short-term and modest rebound in lithium salt prices. However, in the long term, the oversupply of lithium is unlikely to reverse, and the long-term trend for lithium carbonate prices will remain downward.

Cathode manufacturers and battery cell producers are revising their production plans upwards as downstream demand shows signs of recovery. Meanwhile, China’s NEV sector still faces trade risks from tariffs in overseas markets such as the US, Canada, and Europe. For example, the US initially planned to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs starting August 1st, but this measure has been postponed again. 

Canada is planning to follow suit with a similar 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs, set to take effect on October 1st. TrendForce believes that, given these uncertainties around international tariff policies, battery makers may start stocking up as lithium prices approach their lows. The industry could see a short-term improvement in demand in September.

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