Technological and Regulatory Hurdles Expected to Be Addressed, Level 3 Autonomous EVs to Represent 10% of New Models by 2030, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s latest investigations reveal that nearly 90% of newly launched electric passenger car models (including BEVs, PHEVs, FCVs, and HEVs) in 2024 will feature SAE Level 2. These systems predominantly include automatic emergency braking, adaptive cruise control, and lane-keeping assist, although not all models will offer all three functionalities. However, the adoption of more advanced SAE Level 3 autonomous systems remains limited due to high technological barriers, unresolved regulatory challenges, and elevated vehicle costs.

Autonomous driving chips and model training are critical to advancing the automotive technology. At CES 2025, NVIDIA unveiled its "three-computer" approach to autonomous product development, which includes an AI development platform, a simulation and synthetic data generation platform, and in-vehicle autonomous driving chips. The company also introduced the Cosmos platform, featuring a World Foundation Model (WFM) capable of generating physics-based synthetic data for simulation training.

TrendForce highlights that training autonomous driving models using extensive, realistic simulation scenarios and rare edge cases is instrumental in accelerating the commercialization of autonomous technologies.

The regulatory environment is also evolving. The EU and Japan have already implemented regulations for Level 3 autonomous vehicles, while China is working to accelerate the adoption of autonomous technologies in passenger vehicles. Beijing, for example, plans to implement the Beijing Autonomous Driving Ordinance on April 1, 2025, to regulate Level 3 and higher systems and pave the way for personal autonomous vehicles.

Commercial deployment of Level 4 Robotaxis and autonomous buses is also expanding, with companies like Baidu and WeRide benefiting from regulatory relaxations and achieving operational milestones in multiple Chinese cities. Meanwhile, in the United States, Tesla announced its Cybercab program in October 2024. With the inauguration of President Trump’s new administration, updates to autonomous driving regulations are anticipated, potentially expediting the rollout of related technologies.

TrendForce notes that current Level 3 vehicles are priced at a premium due to technological and regulatory challenges. However, as these obstacles are addressed, coupled with the comprehensiveness of the supply chain and the realization of economies of scale, costs are expected to decline.

With steady advancements in technology, regulatory frameworks, and cost efficiencies, the number of Level 3 car models is projected to grow significantly. By 2030, these vehicles are expected to account for 10% of newly launched electric passenger car models.

Note 1: If one version of a newly launched vehicle model meets the Level 2 standard, it is included in the calculation.

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