Global NEV Sales Expected to Grow 18% in 2025, with US Market Facing Uncertainty, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s latest investigations find that global sales of NEVs—including BEVs, PHEVs, and FCVs—reached 16.29 million units in 2024, marking a 25% YoY increase. The Chinese market expanded its share to 67%, further solidifying its dominance. Looking ahead, global NEV sales are projected to grow by 18% in 2025, with China expected to maintain its upward trend. Meanwhile, policy changes in the US could introduce uncertainties.

Tesla retained its top position in BEV sales in 2024, with BYD closely following in second place. SAIC-GM-Wuling saw an impressive 44% YoY growth, reclaiming its spot as the third-largest BEV manufacturer. In contrast, Volkswagen and GAC Aion, ranking fourth and fifth, both experienced negative sales growth. 

Meanwhile, ZEEKR and Leapmotor nearly doubled their annual sales, making their debut in the global top 10 BEV rankings. Hyundai slipped to ninth place—suffering a 21% sales decline—with lackluster performance across key markets, including the US, South Korea, and Europe.

BYD dominated the PHEV segment, securing a 38% market share, which exceeded 40% when including its other sub-brands. Li Auto, AITO, and Changan (including Qiyuan) followed in second to fourth place, respectively. Notably, AITO’s strong performance, driven by the success of the M9 model, propelled it into the top 10 PHEV rankings. 

BMW’s PHEV sales dipped slightly by 3%, placing it seventh, while the sales gap between BMW’s BEV and PHEV models continued to widen. Additionally, Geely Group saw Lynk & Co and Galaxy enter the top 10 at eighth and tenth place, respectively. In 2024, Geely integrated its brands by merging Geome into Galaxy and Lynk & Co with ZEEKR, forming ZEEKR Technology Group while retaining both brands.

TrendForce projects that global NEV sales will reach 19.2 million units in 2025. China is expected to sustain growth, benefiting from the extension of its vehicle trade-in subsidy policy. However, Chinese automakers face three key challenges: intensifying domestic competition, high investment demands for overseas expansion, and increasing technological rivalry.

Consequently, once fragmented multi-brand strategies are now undergoing restructuring, and industry consolidation is expected to continue in 2025, with a growing likelihood of mergers among major automotive groups.

The US NEV market remains highly uncertain. TrendForce warns that if President Trump successfully overturns the US$7,500 EV tax credit with congressional approval, the 2025 global NEV sales growth rate could decline from 18% to 16%. However, the actual impact will depend on several factors, including the timing of policy implementation, state-level incentives, and automakers’ strategic response to the EV market shift.

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