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As consumer market demand gradually recovers, global automobile shipment is expected to reach 83.5 million units in 2021, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. As well, component procurement activities from major automakers and tier 1 suppliers have generated an increase in automotive semiconductor demand in 4Q20. Global automotive IC revenue is expected to reach US$18.67 billion in 2020 and $21 billion in 2021, a 12.5% increase YoY.
The DRAM market exhibits a healthier and more balanced supply/demand relationship compared with the NAND Flash market because of its oligopolistic structure, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. The percentage distribution of DRAM supply bits by application currently shows that PC DRAM accounts for 13%, server DRAM 34%, mobile DRAM 40%, graphics DRAM 5%, and consumer DRAM (or specialty DRAM) 8%. Looking ahead to 1Q21, the DRAM market by then will have gone through an inventory adjustment period of slightly more than two quarters. Memory buyers will also be more willing to stock up because they want to reduce the risk of future price hikes. Therefore, DRAM prices on the whole will be constrained from falling further. The overall ASP of DRAM products is now forecasted to stay generally flat or slightly up for 1Q21.
Demand in the foundry market has remained strong in 4Q20, as production capacities across the industry remain fully loaded, with the tight supply of wafer capacities leading to a price hike in foundry services and subsequently driving up total quarterly industry revenue, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. The top 10 foundries’ revenues for 4Q20 are expected to exceed US$21.7 billion, an 18% increase YoY, with TSMC, Samsung, and UMC respectively taking the top three largest market shares.
On December 3, the U.S. Department of Defense announced its latest sanctions against four Chinese companies, including SMIC, which is the leading foundry in China, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. While the U.S. government had imposed sanctions on SMIC with the EAR (Export Administration Regulations), the DoD is now including the foundry on its list of Chinese military companies. Not only will this move threaten SMIC’s upstream supply of semiconductor equipment and materials, but its R&D of advanced processes as well as China’s attempt at semiconductor independence will also be severely impacted as a result. Furthermore, SMIC will be barred from receiving any U.S. investments going forward.
Contract prices of mainstream products generally held steady in November following their stabilization in the prior month, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. However, contract prices of low-density products (including DDR2 and DDR3 1/2/4Gb) rallied in advance due to the sentiment of tightening supply, with DDR3 4Gb seeing the most widespread adoption. Specifically, there are not many DRAM suppliers that provide low-density chips for specialty (or consumer) applications. On the other hand, the average and high prices of DDR3 2Gb chips, which were primarily promoted by Taiwan-based suppliers, crept up 1% from October, due to the gradual cutbacks in the two major Korean manufacturers’ supplies.
