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The fourth quarter is a critical period for setting DRAM contract prices. TrendForce’s latest research reveals that prices for mature DRAM processes such as DDR4 and LPDDR4X are already trending downward due to ample supply and declining demand. The demand outlook for advanced products like DDR5 and LPDDR5X remains uncertain, and with high inventory levels among certain buyers and sellers, a further drop in prices by the end of Q4 cannot be ruled out.
SK hynix recently unveiled its development of HBM3e 16hi memory at the SK AI Summit 2024, featuring a 48 GB capacity per cube, with sampling scheduled for the first half of 2025. TrendForce’s latest findings reveal that this new product is aimed at applications that include CSPs’ custom ASICs and general-purpose GPUs. The 16hi HBM3e product is expected to push memory capacity limits ahead of the HBM4 generation’s launch.
Reports suggest that TSMC has notified its Chinese clients of a temporary suspension on shipments of advanced AI chips produced using 7nm and below process nodes. Additionally, Chinese clients seeking future advanced process projects will be subject to strict review to ensure the chips are not used for AI or other restricted purposes. TrendForce posits that if the policy takes effect, it could impact TSMC’s revenue performance and utilization rates of its 7nm and below advanced process capacity, while also affecting the future development of China’s AI industry.
TrendForce’s latest analysis reveals that the global revenue for the DRAM module market reached US$12.5 billion in 2023—a YoY decline of 28%. This drop was primarily attributed to the inventory correction period for consumer electronics following the pandemic, which drove down DRAM prices. High utilization rates by DRAM suppliers further intensified the price decline, before the market began to rebound in the second half of 2023.
The DRAM industry experienced inventory reductions and price recovery in the first three quarters of 2024; however, pricing momentum is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter. TrendForce’s Senior Vice President of Research, Avril Wu, noted that some DRAM suppliers, after achieving profitability this year, have begun planning new capacity expansions. This could lead to a 25% YoY increase in total DRAM bit output in 2025—marking a more substantial growth compared to 2024.
