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Investigations by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, show that DRAM quotes have taken a turn for the worse in 4Q18, causing the total revenue in the DRAM industry to fall. Due to high inventory levels on the demand end, purchases have become few and little, in turn causing a sales bit decline QoQ for most DRAM vendors. Under this double decline of both quantity and price, the global DRAM revenue fell by 18.3% QoQ in 4Q18.
DRAMeXchange, a division of the global market research firm TrendForce, reports that the rising economic uncertainties caused some server manufacturers to delay restocking or cancel orders, and compelled those upstream in the supply chain to make adjustments to their production lines, damaging their ability to stock up. Furthermore, Apple sales did not meet expectations in the new quarter, and the need to switch phones experienced a decline; laptop demands were impacted by the Intel CPU shortage. Bit-shipments did not perform as well as expected, despite the continual increase in average memory storage. All this led to a drop in revenue by 16.8% QoQ for brand owners in 4Q18.
According to the latest report of TrendForce- Breakdown Analysis of China’s Semiconductor Industry, the revenue of China’s IC design industry reached RMB 251.5 billion in 2018, an annual growth of nearly 23%. HiSilicon, Unisoc, and Beijing OmniVision Technologies ranked top three in the 2018 revenue ranking. Looking ahead to 2019, China will continue to seek chip self-sufficiency, driving the growth of domestic IC design industry. The revenue is expected to total RMB 296.5 billion, but the YoY growth rate is moderated to 17.9% due to a series of headwinds, including the weak demand outlook for consumer electronics, the slowdown in global economy, and uncertainties brought by the U.S.-China trade war.
The latest analysis from DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, forecasts that the ongoing oversupply will result in significant price declines for DRAM products during 1H19. Demand remains weak in 1Q19 due to the off-season and the high inventory level that was carried over from the previous quarter. Contract prices of DRAM products across all major application markets already registered declines of more than 15% MoM in January, and they will continue their descent in February and March. Regarding contract price trends in 1Q19, the PC DRAM market is forecasted to see a decline of more than 20% QoQ, while the server DRAM market may witness an even larger drop of nearly 30% QoQ.
According to the latest report by TrendForce - Breakdown Analysis of China’s Semiconductor Industry, the outlook for China’s semiconductor industry has been tampered since the second half of 2018 due to pessimistic economy worldwide and uncertainties brought by the China-U.S. trade war, although the industry managed to reach a total revenue of over 600 billion RMB in 2018. Looking ahead to 2019, the revenue of China's semiconductor industry is expected to reach RMB 729.8 billion, but the annual growth rate would slow down to 16.20%, the lowest in the past five years.
