TrendForce reports that the three largest DRAM suppliers are increasing wafer input for advanced processes. Following a rise in memory contract prices, companies have boosted their capital investments, with capacity expansion focusing on the second half of this year. It is expected that wafer input for 1alpha nm and above processes will account for approximately 40% of total DRAM wafer input by the end of the year.
Following in the wake of an earthquake that struck on April 3rd, TrendForce undertook an in-depth analysis of its effects on the DRAM industry, uncovering a sector that has shown remarkable resilience and faced minimal interruptions. Despite some damage and the necessity for inspections or disposal of wafers among suppliers, the facilities’ strong earthquake preparedness of the facilities has kept the overall impact to a minimum.
In the wake of a 7.2-magnitude earthquake off the eastern coast of Taiwan at 7:58 AM on April 3rd, TrendForce immediately investigated the damage and operational status of various manufacturers. The DRAM industry, primarily located in the northern and central parts of Taiwan, and the foundry industry, spread across the north, central, and southern regions of Taiwan, appear to have sustained minimal initial damage.
Additionally, significant price increases by suppliers since 4Q23 are expected to further diminish the momentum for inventory restocking. As a result, DRAM contract prices for the second quarter are projected to see a modest increase of 3–8%, says TrendForce.
TrendForce reports a 29.6% QoQ in DRAM industry revenue for 4Q23, reaching US$17.46 billion, propelled by revitalized stockpiling efforts and strategic production control by leading manufacturers. Looking ahead to 1Q24, the intent to further enhance profitability is evident, with a projected near 20% increase in DRAM contract prices—albeit with a slight decrease in shipment volumes to the traditional off-season.
TrendForce anticipates 2024 to mark a significant expansion in edge AI applications, leveraging the groundwork laid by AI servers and branching into AI PCs and other terminal devices. The global AI server market—encompassing AI Training and AI Inference—is projected to exceed 1.6 million units, growing at an impressive rate of 40%. Additionally, CSPs are expected to ramp up their involvement in this sector.
Looking ahead to Q4, while suppliers are firmly set on price hikes, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by approximately 13–18%, demand recovery will not be as robust as in previous peak seasons. Overall, while there is demand for stockpiling, procurement for the server sector remains tentative due to high inventory levels, suggesting limited growth in DRAM industry shipments for Q4.
TrendForce reports that consumer appetite for electronic products took a hit from high inflation, with global DRAM module sales in 2022 reaching US$17.3 billion—a 4.6% YoY decline. Revenue performance varied significantly among module makers due to the different domains they supply.
TrendForce reports indicate a universal price increase for both DRAM and NAND Flash starting in the fourth quarter. DRAM prices, for instance, are projected to see a quarterly surge of about 3-8%.
