July 28th,2010------According to DRAMeXchange, the research department of Trendforce, June NB shipment is recorded at 17M units with 9.3% MoM given 1.) Raising sea shipment portion. 2.) Inventory management of PC-OEM and for back-to-school demand. Third quarter is traditionally hot season for PC while average QoQ is 15%-20%. Nevertheless, 3Q/4Q growth momentum is limited due to higher base in 1H10 and the noise for European markets. Thus, DRAMeXchange expect 3Q10 NB shipment QoQ will be estimated at 12.8%.
July is expected to be the lowest point for 3Q after strong shipment in June. August and September will indicate the upward pattern sequentially. PC-ODM did not reveal the clear visibility toward 4Q under the gloomy economic situation. That is, the channel sales in July and August will be critical to the growth in fourth quarter.
We have also seen slow netbook down momentum with the cannibalization from iPad and other iPad like device. According to our check, 2010 netbook shipment is estimated at 35M units with 24% YoY. Tablet PC will bring the strong challenge to netbook since price gap between iPad-like tablet PC and netbook is narrowed. Most PC-OEM will launch new tablet PC in 2H10 and very likely to adjust down netbook price to stimulate the demand. DRAMeXchange indicate that many PC-OEMs will gradually re-target at regular notebook with the expectation in melted netbook demand.