DRAMeXchange: 1H’Sep DDR3 2GB average contract price decline 10% and 20% QOQ is expected in 4Q10

DRAMeXchange: 1H’Sep DDR3 2GB average contract price decline 10% and 20% QOQ is expected in 4Q10

Sep. 17th, 2010----According to DRAMeXchange, the research department of Trendforce, 1H’Sep contract price continue the downward trend that DDR3 2GB average price decline 10% to US$36 from US$40, which is the deepest decline within a year. DDR2 contract price decline 2.8% to US$35. 2H10 PC growth is revised down to less than 1% given the unsatisfactory end-demand. DRAM vendors start to lower the price with the inventory and sales pressure. 3Q10 contract price decline 13% QoQ compared with the price in 2Q10. We expect 4Q10 contract price will decline another 20% QoQ that DDR3 1Gb chip will fall to the level of US$1.5. DRAM vendors may see the worse profit figures compared to 1H10. 

Acceleration of technology migration is the only way to survive facing the dropping DRAM price. Samsung leads other vendors in the migration progress that 56nm and 46nm are mature and ready for mass production. 35nm product is expected to ship out to customers in 4Q10 and 50% of total output is achievable in 3Q11. From cost perspective, output from 35nm will be 60% more than output from 46nm with 30% cost advantage. DRAMeXchange expect Samsung will at least surpass other competitors one generation and market share will be likely up to 40% . DRAM vendors may not have good profit performance in 2011as they had in 1H10 but still have chance if they can speed up the 40nm migration.