DRAMeXchange: 2H’Sep. DDR3 contract price declined 6% and $1.5 for 1Gb is foreseeable in year end

DRAMeXchange: 2H’Sep. DDR3 contract price declined 6% and $1.5 for 1Gb is foreseeable in year end

According to DRAMeXchange, the research dept. of Trendforce, 2H’Sep contract price continue the downward trend that DDR3 1Gb “average” price has fallen below US$2 and DDR3 “average” contract price dropped 5.5% to US$34 from US$36, even “Low” contract price has reached US$33. 3Q10 DDR3 contract price has declined 23% quarterly, which is the deepest drop since mid 2009. DDR2 “Average” contract price also dropped 6% to US$33 along with the declining DDR3. 

In Spot market, Chinese government is strongly inspected on the smuggling and result in the unsatisfactory National Holiday demands due to the Asian Games at Gongzhou in November. Spot market is quite slow. DDR3 1Gb spot average price comes to US$1.82, a 20% decline compared with the US$2.27 in the early September. Spot price will accelerate reaching the bottom given the weak demand in contract market. 

DRAM vendors have accelerated the DDR3 migration in 2H10. 3Q10 DDR3 output growth recorded 30% QoQ and 15% in 4Q10 according to DRAMeXchange. However, PC-OEMs are more conservative toward increasing content per box, which limited the content growth. DRAMeXchange expect Oct. DDR3 2GB contract price will fall to US$30 and US$25 for 4Q10. DDR3 1Gb will likely fall to US$1.5 by the year end.