DRAMeXchange: 1Q11 NB shipment will be triggered by new Huron River platform while 2011 NB shipment growth rate is 15.4% under the cannibalization of tablet PC
Most NB ODM vendors just released their October NB shipment recently. According to DRAMeXchange, overall Oct. NB shipment decline 5.7% MoM to 17.3M. As for the 4Q10 outlook, DRAMeXchange expect overall NB growth rate will be 2.1%QoQ and -0.4% YoY, scaled in 50.3M units in 4Q10 given the healthy inventory level and rebounding European market. 2010 overall NB shipment is expected to be 193M units, YoY 20.8%.
Intel will launch new Huron River platform in 1Q11 accordingly. Compared with the dual core Calpella, Sandy Bridge CPU is migrated and improved to quad core CPU with the consistent power consumption at the level of Nehalem CPU in Calpella platform. Also, Huron River platform enhance the performance of integrated graphic functionality. New Intel platform launch will be expected to trigger the PC replacement according to the historical pattern. DRAMeXchange think new CPU launch will not only trigger the new demand but also will help to lower the price on old models for price promotion. Some demand in 4Q10 is believed to be delayed to 1Q11. Also, China market will account around 20% of total PC shares world widely and Chinese New Year plays important factor in terms of shipment. DRAMeXchange forecast 1Q11 PC shipment will decline 5-10% and QoQ is around -1.4%.
After launch in April, iPad shipment has already reached 7.5M units by 3Q10. Other vendors will also aggressively penetrate into this market and we are carefully watching that if other vendors can compete with iPad in hardware and software manners. Besides Dell launch 5” and 7” tablet “Streak”, Samsung also launch new Galaxy Tab. HP also launched Wintel version Slate 500 and will likely deliver Web-OS platform tablet in 2011. Acer will also launch series of tablet ranged from US$299 to US$699 while Lenovo and Asus have tablet plans after that. Also, we see some mobile vendors such as RIM, Motorola and Nokia will also participate in the market. DRAMeXchange think that iPad will account more than 95% market share given the better integration of software and hardware and total tablet PC shipment will be around 15.2M units in 2011. 2011 tablet shipment is expected to be 51.3M units since more products will be ready for the market. However, iPad is forecast to account more than 80% market share since most non-iPad tablet will be ready in 2H11.
DRAMeXchange think 15%-20% tablet PC will cannibalize the original NB demand. Take the total 51.3M units shipment in 2011, tablet PC will cannibalize 7-10M units NB demand. Despite of new Intel CPU launch in 1Q11, 2011 overall NB growth will be around 15.4% YoY and 222.7M units in scale, which is lower than historical 20% YoY growth pattern. However, overall 2010 NB shipment will be 208.2M and will grow 31.6% to 274M units in 2011 if tablet is included.