TrendForce’s latest research reveals that although the U.S. has granted a 90-day grace period before implementing reciprocal tariffs—offering temporary relief for notebook brands—the broader market remains clouded by policy and economic uncertainty. Brands began frontloading inventory in late 2024, pushing Q4 shipment growth to 5.1%, with 1Q25 seeing a 7.2% YoY increase.
However, given persistent economic weakness and rising tariff risks, TrendForce has revised the full-year 2025 notebook brand shipment growth forecast downward from 3.6% to just 1.4%.
The U.S. currently maintains a 0% tariff on notebooks imported from Southeast Asia, while imposing a 20% import duty on those from China. This discrepancy has driven brands to accelerate shipments from Vietnam, Thailand, and other regional hubs.
U.S.-based brands, having invested early in Southeast Asia, enjoy greater flexibility and are better positioned to replenish North American inventory during the 90-day exemption. In contrast, non-U.S. brands, whose Southeast Asian supply chains are still under development, face limited short-term adaptability.
Risk of Annual Decline if Tariff Negotiations Fail
The U.S. remains the world’s largest single notebook market, accounting for approximately 30% of global demand. Although the short-term tariff delay is helping brands sustain shipments, TrendForce expects a strong likelihood of retail price increases that may suppress both consumer and commercial upgrade cycles. Should China retaliate with tariffs on U.S. key components, the resulting higher production costs could force brands to adopt more conservative production and procurement strategies.
Brands are closely monitoring the progress of U.S. trade negotiations with other countries. If tariffs on imports from Southeast Asia are eventually capped at 10–20%, it could alleviate cost pressures and stabilize market sentiment. However, price hikes and weakened demand in the second half of 2025 may become unavoidable if talks break down and policy risks escalate—potentially dragging down annual notebook brand shipment growth down to -2.1%.
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