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DRAMeXchange: 2011 surging tablet and limited notebook and netbook growth

25 November 2010 Consumer Electronics

DRAMeXchange: 2011 surging tablet and limited notebook and netbook growth 

Nov. 25th, 2010--According to DRAMeXchange, the research department of Trendforce Corp., 2011 DT shipment increase 6.1% YoY to 127M units while notebook (netbook included) increase 15.4% YoY to 222.7M units. Netbook declined 2% YoY to 32.6M units. Tablet PC rises 237.5% YoY to 51.3M units in 2011. Total PC (tablet excluded) is estimated 350.2M units with 11.8% YoY in 2011.

PC industry will be influenced by tablet PC and indicate the growing pattern. We expect it will re-shape the industry. 

2011 tablet PC increase 237.5% YoY in 2011

According to DRAMeXchange, the research department of Trendforce Corp., after launch in April, iPad shipment has already reached 7.5M units by 3Q10. Other vendors will also aggressively penetrate into this market and we are carefully watching that if other vendors can compete with iPad in hardware and software manners. DRAMeXchange think that iPad will account more than 95% market share given the better integration of software and hardware and total tablet PC shipment will be around 15.2M units in 2011. 

2011 tablet shipment is expected to be 51.3M units since more products will be ready for the market. However, iPad is forecast to account more than 80% market share since most non-iPad tablet will be ready in 2H11. Non-iOS surged in a dramatically path. Android market app volume has exceeded 100K, far beyond the 300K for apple app store. However, it still show the threat to iPad.

2011 Notebook (netbook included) is limited with 15.4% YoY

DRAMeXchange think 15%-20% tablet PC will cannibalize the original NB demand. Take the total 51.3M units shipment in 2011, tablet PC will cannibalize 7-10M units NB demand. Despite of new Intel CPU launch in 1Q11, 2011 overall NB growth will be around 15.4% YoY and 222.7M units in scale, which is lower than historical 20% YoY growth pattern. Given the impact from Chinese New Year and new platform launch, 1H11 and 2H11 NB shipment pattern will be shaped as 45%:55%, which is totally different from the historical 40%:60% pattern.

2011 netbook growth rate decline 2% YoY with threat from tablet

Netbook reached its peak 28.4M units with 172%YoY in 2009 since the newly launch in 2007. In 2010 especially for European and American market, netbook face the cannibalization from tablet that most OEM and ODM are conservative toward netbook in 2H10. DRAMeXchange estimated 2010 netbook grows 17.2% YoY to 33.3M units.

We expect the surging tablet PC will limit the growth in netbook in 2011. However, netbook still has some demand for basic functionality such as office computing. DRAMeXchange expect 2011 netbook shipment will be 32.6M units with 2% YoY decline. 

DT: Benefited from new demand of emerging market

Despite of the continuous replacement effect from notebook, DRAMeXchange still think DT growth rate will be stable at the consideration of new demand from emerging areas such as China and other emerging countries. Such as Latin American market, most new PC demand is from the family and NB is less attractive. China PC market share is expected to surpass over 20% in 2010 since growth in European and American market is beyond expectation. DRAMeXchange expect DT market will grow 6.1% YoY to 127M units in 2011 from 120M units in 2010. 

If Tablet PC is merged into NB demand, annual growth rate is 31.6%

Tablet PC are cannibalizing the notebook market. If taking into consideration, 2010 NB increases 30.3% YoY to 208.2M units. 2011 NB (included netbook,tablet PC) increases 31.6% YoY to 274M units. Total NB markets indicate the huge growth rate. 2010 NB shipment will be 208.2M and will grow 31.6% to 274M units in 2011 if tablet is included. 

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