DRAMeXchange: 2H’Dec. DRAM contract price declined 10% to US$0.9/1Gb; and is expected to reach the bottom around US$0.8/1Gb in 1Q11

DRAMeXchange: 2H’Dec. DRAM contract price declined 10% to US$0.9/1Gb; and is expected to reach the bottom around US$0.8/1Gb in 1Q11

Dec. 21st, 2010--According to DRAMeXchange, the research department of Trendforce, 2H’Dec. contract price continued the downward pattern that DDR3 2GB contract“ Average” declined 10% to US$18($0.97/1Gb) from US$20($1.09/1Gb). Contract “Low ”dropped 10.5% to US$17($0.91/1Gb).

Despite of the continuous migration and increased output, 2H’10 PC sales is still under expectation and PC content did not significantly increase in 4Q10 when DRAM price has declined 50% from the peak. Hence, DRAMeXchange expect DRAM market will be in the over-supply in 1H10. However, we also expect DRAM price will bottom up from April and OEM will sharply level up the inventory level for June PC shipment and result in the rebounded DRAM price. DRAMeXchange forecast that DDR3 1Gb will likely be back to the level at US$1.2-US$1.3 in 2H’11. DDR3 1Gb price will be below US$1 if demand is worse than expectation and will force the vendors with bad cost structure to cut the capacity. DDR3 1Gb will be back to US$1.2-US$1.3 after capacity cut. That is, DRAMeXchange expect DDR3 1Gb price will be below US$1 for three to six months. 

In spot market, DDR2 raises along with DDR3, the medium price recover soon after slightly decline in the very short term. DDR2 1Gb 800Mhz is up 13.5% to U$1.43 from US$1.26 since one DDR2-support-only chipsets are released from the market and it enhances the demand for DDR2. First-tier module house also raises the DDR2 price as well. From the long term speaking, the upward trend is for short-term and we expect DRAM price will still in the downward pattern with no obvious demand.