1Q11 Notebook shipment indicated a strong momentum in March

1Q11 Notebook shipment indicated a strong momentum in March

According to DRAMeXchange, a research department of TrendForce Corporation, NB-OEMs (notebook original equipment manufacturers) recalled the flawed products right after Intel announced its flawed chipset in end of January. Intel brought up the B3 version cougar point chipset in the meantime. Thus, we estimated these factors will interrupt its shipment schedule by 2 to 3 weeks. However, Intel’s issue was not as severe with February being a shorter month of the year and the low shipment of Sandy Bridge Models. According DRAMeXchange, February notebook shipment (netbook included) decreased by 12% month over month to roughly 13.2 million units.

Given the unsatisfactory January shipment and Intel’s incident in February, DRAMeXchange expects the shipment will be postponed to March and April. Particularly March shipment is expected to surge by 30% month over month. 1Q11 notebook shipment quarter over quarter will decline by 11%. DRAMeXchange expects the 2Q11 notebook shipment will outperform its historical pattern with factors like the postponed notebook shipment, the raising sea shipment ratio, and last but not the least the inventory replenishment prepared for the back to school sale season. DRAMeXchange expect 2Q11 Notebook shipment will increase by 13.6% quarter over quarter. However, the outlook of 2Q11 ODM purchase orders remains in low visibility, main factor drive the shipment will be from the end users’ demand.

According to DRAMeXchange, 2011 Notebook growth momentum will be mainly drive from the demand of the emerging and commercial market. On HP and Dell’s quarterly report, HP and Dell both have shown progress in the market of commercial PC and expected the momentum to continue in 2011. The increments from the emerging markets demand will help to stabilize PC demand and alleviate the strong tablet replacement in developed market. DRAMeXchange expects 2011 netbook will declined by 19.5% year over year to 26.8M units and regular notebook will increase 19.6% year over year to 192.2 million units. Overall 2011 notebook shipment (netbook included) will increase by 12.9% to approximately 219 million units.