DRAMeXchange: Worldwide DRAM revenue slightly declined 4.0% in 1Q11

DRAMeXchange: Worldwide DRAM revenue slightly declined 4.0% in 1Q11

According to DRAMeXchange, the research department of Trendforce, 1Q11 Worldwide DRAM revenue slightly decreased 4% to US$8.3bn from US$8.6bn in 4Q10. Despite of 30% of DRAM average contract price erosion, yet the 15% DRAM output growth and continuous product mix shifting to high value mobile and graphic memory has eased the volatile revenue fluctuation.

The supply bit growth for 1Q11 increased 15% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) with the raising portion of advanced node while PC shipment has declined 7% QoQ and limited content growth, 1Q11 DDR3 2GB average contract price declined 30% to US$16.7 from US$23.9 in 4Q10. DDR3 1Gb 1333MHz spot price also decreased 26.7% QoQ to US$1.1.

Despite of continuous price decline in 1Q11, American and Korean DRAM vendors still released a profitable result while Winbond remains the only vendor with positive figures. Also, DRAM vendors are turning conservative toward CAPEX with the impact from Japan earthquake and less consumer confidence. Overall 2011 DRAM CAPEX shrunk 36% to US$7.5bn from US$11.76bn in 2010. Nevertheless, DRAM vendors continue the efforts on technology migration that 30nm will become mainstream among Korean, American and Japanese DRAM vendors, while 40nm progress adoption will be accelerated among Taiwanese vendors. With the aggressive product mix exposure on mobile DRAM and sever-basis memory and lowering the portion in commodity DRAM, DRAM industry seems optimistic.

Worldwide DRAM revenue ranking by owned brand

In terms of own brand revenue, Samsung and Hynix sustained the leadership that Samsung recorded around 40% market share despite of 6.1% revenue erosion. With an outstanding progress in technology migration and foreseeable over 50% of output producing in 35nm, we expect Samsung to further extend its market share. Shares of Hynix slightly increased to 22.9% from 21.9% with a 0.3% increase in revenue. This is attributed to the raising portion in mobile and graphic product mix.

Impact by declining DRAM price, Elpida sales has decreased by 5.1% QoQ in 1Q11 while market share decreased to 13% from 13.6%. Powerchip has officially announced that the commodity DRAM product will be 100% devoted as Elpida's foundry and expected to contribute to Elpida’s revenue. Hiroshima Fabs will be completely devoted in mobile DRAM and foundry business while commodity DRAM will be handled by Rexchip and Powerchip. Rexchip has a decent yield rate for 38nm product and portion will be ramp up from 2Q11. Micron DRAM revenue has declined 8.5% and market share decreased to 11.4% despite the 23% DRAM output increase in 1Q11.

As for Taiwanese vendors, Nanya has a record of a 4.2% market share while revenue decreased 3.8% QoQ. With the continuous 42nm technology migration and output from Inotera, sales bit growth increases 20% QoQ. PSC sales, benefited from the increasing portion of 45nm by the installment of two immersion scanners, has increased by 8.3%. PSC will re-position itself as the professional foundry partners with emphasis on mobile DRAM, Flash and foundry business. We expect profitability will enhance in the future. Despite the 2.7% revenue decline in 1Q11, the dedication on high margin product lines such as mobile DRAM, specialty DRAM and NOR Flash will be some promising factors for Winbond. (Figure-1)

Market Share of own brand DRAM revenue by country

In terms of market share by country, Korean vendors’ market share reached 64.1% while American and Taiwanese DRAM makers’ shares are recorded at 11.7% and 10.5% respectively. Market shares of Japanese DRAM vendors slightly declined to 13.7%. (Figure-2)