TrendForce: 2HSep. NAND Flash Average Contract Price Decreases Slightly due to Inventory Replenishment

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, although most NAND flash related vendors are currently conservative towards European and American holiday season sales, inventory replenishment began in early September in preparation for certain system vendors’ unveiling of new smartphone and ultrabook models in October and November. Furthermore, some memory card vendors began restocking in mid-September for China’s October Golden Week Holiday. While a portion of suppliers adopted price cut strategies to counteract quarter-end effects, most suppliers kept prices flat. Thus, mainstream NAND flash average contract price fell slightly in 2HSep. Additionally, as demand from system client OEM orders was higher than demand from the memory card retail market, TLC price decline was larger than MLC price drop.



Looking at the future of the NAND flash market, the peak inventory replenishment period for system clients’ new products may last until early November. Thus, in the short term, NAND flash contract price may remain stable for the most part in October. However, beginning in 4Q11, new 2xnm-node technology products will gradually replace 3xnm-node products as the mainstream process, causing NAND flash market bit supply to increase. Currently, although uncertainty about international macroeconomic factors is still affecting the 4Q peak season, certain tablet PC vendors have implemented aggressive price-cut promotion activities. Additionally, new smartphone and ultrabook products have stimulated purchasing in 4Q, which will help consume some of the new output. However, the NAND flash price trend after the October replenishment peak will still depend on actual year-end holiday sales.