TrendForce: 4Q11 Sales Ranking of Branded NAND Flash Manufacturers

Suffering from the stir of the European sovereign debt storm in financial markets, concerns towards the uncertainty of global economic recovery, 4Q hot-season restocking demand was weaker than expected. DRAMeXchange, the Memory and Storage Division of TrendForce, indicates that NAND Flash restocking demand mainly relied on certain tablet PC and smart phone clients’ OEM orders, given weaker demand from the memory card and UFD channel markets. Moreover, as the 2xnm-class output portion continued to increase in 4Q11, the bit supply increased in NAND Flash market as well. Therefore, overall 4Q11 average selling price (ASP) decreased 13% QoQ for branded NAND Flash supply makers. Some downstream clients digested excess inventory and kept tighter control on inventory levels due to the more conservative market sentiment toward year-end holiday sales. Branded NAND Flash suppliers’ overall 4Q11 bit shipment increased slightly, by about 5% QoQ. As a result, overall 4Q11 sales for NAND Flash branded suppliers decreased about 8.6% QoQ to US$4,888 million.

Looking at the quarterly sales ranking for branded NAND Flash manufacturers, Samsung came in first again with US$1,691 million, 34.6% market share; Toshiba took second place with US$1,450 million, 29.7% of the market; Hynix came in third with US$669 million, 13.7% of the market. Micron was fourth at US$648 million, 13.3% of the market; and Intel placed fifth with US$430 million, 8.8% of the market.

Overall 2011 sales for NAND Flash branded suppliers was US$20.378 billion. Looking at the annual sales ranking for branded NAND Flash manufacturers, Samsung came in first again with US$7,594 million, 37.3% market share; Toshiba took second place with US$6,282 million, 30.8% of the market; Hynix came in third with US$2,514 million, 12.3% of the market. Micron was fourth at US$2,413 million, 11.8% of the market; and Intel placed fifth with US$1,575 million, 7.7% of the market.




4Q11 Operation Analysis of branded NAND Flash makers

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
Although affected by weak memory card and UFD retail market demand in 4Q11, Samsung benefitted from OEM orders for embedded products from certain major smartphone and tablet PC clients. Thus, bit shipment growth for 4Q11 roughly kept flat, while ASP declined about 10% QoQ. As a result, 4Q11 sales decreased 15.6% QoQ to US$1691 million and market share was 34.6%. Samsung anticipates that OEM orders from some smartphone & tablet PC clients will remain steady in 1Q12. Therefore, they estimate that their bit shipment growth will increase over 10% QoQ in 1Q12. Samsung will continue to increase production volume for new 21nm process technology products in order to strengthen cost competitiveness, as well as develop new eMMC products and SSDs to raise the proportion of sales from system product clients.

Toshiba Corp.
With OEM orders from major smartphone and tablet PC clients, given the weaker demand in memory card and UFD channel market. Toshiba’s bit shipment roughly kept flat in 4Q11, in spite of the price decline and Japanese yen appreciation. 4Q11 sales thus decreased approximately 14.3% QoQ to US$1,450 million, 29.7% of market share. Toshiba will continue to increase output of new 19nm process technology products to strengthen cost competitiveness. Toshiba will also develop embedded products and SSDs to continue increasing sales from system product clients, so as to meet demand growth from emerging smart mobile devices.

Hynix Semiconductor Co., Ltd.
Suffering from weaker demand in memory card and UFD channel market, Hynix increased sales from some mobile device clients in 4Q11 to ease the impact of weaker NAND Flash end-product demand in 4Q11. As a result, bit shipment growth increased 24% QoQ in 4Q11, but ASP fell 17% QoQ, and 4Q11 sales slightly increased 5.7% QoQ to US$669 million, 13.7% of the market share. In light of steady OEM orders from certain major smartphone and tablet PC clients, Hynix estimates that bit shipment growth will increase about 5% QoQ in 1Q12. For 1Q12, Hynix will continue to increase output of products from new 20nm process technology in order to strengthen their cost competitiveness, and develop embedded products and SSDs to increase sales from ultrabook & mobile device clients.

Micron Technology Inc.
Last quarter, Micron increased the sales proportion of SSD products. This, along with the effect of the down season and stable OEM orders from certain system product customers, caused ASP to decline 11% QoQ. However, quarterly bit shipment growth significantly increased by 21% QoQ, resulting in a quarterly sales increase of 7.5% QoQ. Micron’s sales amounted to US$648 million, 13.3% of market share. In light of Micron’s process technology migration from the 25nm node to the new 20nm node in 1Q12, bit shipment growth will increase approximately over 10% QoQ. Moreover, the company projects that ASP for the current quarter will decrease over 15% QoQ due to uncertain global macro-economic factors. Micron also plans to increase sales of embedded products and SSDs for smartphone, tablet PC & ultrabook.

Intel Corporation
Due to an increase in the sales proportion of SSD, Intel’s ASP decreased slightly and quarterly bit shipment growth stayed stable in 4Q11. Thus, in 4Q11 sales were up by approximately 3.6% QoQ, totaling US$430 million, 8.8% of market share. In 1Q12 Intel will also begin producing 20nm process technology products, as well as continue to increase sales from SSD clients.