TrendForce：September Revenues Fell to Record Low, Taiwanese PV Vendors Expect Q4 to be Turning Point

Taiwan’s PV sector reported revenues for September 2012. According to EnergyTrend, the green energy research division of TrendForce, the last month saw the worst development of received orders in every aspect. Even the battery plants first-tier cell vendors that tended to have steady shipments have failed to reach a production capacity utilization rate of more than 40 percent or 50 percent. Some vendors only maintain a low production of 30 percent while waiting expecting for a turning point. Wafers’ and batteries’ average prices Wafers and cells ASPs in last month respectively declined by 5.2% and 7.8% respectively, having caused negative effect on the revenues of Taiwanese vendors. Rumor has it that the China’s primary vendors have has received an orders for 200MW, so it is likely for them to outsource orders to Taiwanese vendors. However, the China’s vendors are sure to strive for a price lower than the average market price, which may cause a further blow to the Taiwanese vendors’ revenues if they accept bulk orders at a low price.

Meanwhile, on October 10th the United States Department of Commerce announced their decision to impose anti-dumping tariffs, which was pretty much expected in the first place. With the exception that the anti-dumping duty for Trina Sola falls from 31.14% to 18.32%, the other companies were imposed anti-dumping duties ranging from 25.96% to 249.96% and anti-subsidies duty of 14.78 to 15.97%. If this is confirmed by the US International Trade Commission (ITC) on Nov. 23th, the US will officially impose anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties on cell slices imported from China’s vendors since Nov. 30th. Such being the case, China’s primary vendors are likely to be imposed additional duties of 35% to 40%. An analysis based on the current prices reveals that China’s vendors will avoid the tax by choosing the battery products from a third place, and Taiwan is expected to benefit the most in the short term. With the steady growth of the US’ assembly, China’s vendors won’t easily abandon the whole US market, making it possible for the battery prices to steadily rebound. However the price of the end market won’t easily go up, so a huge rise in price is not generally expected. A second thought on the decision reveals a more significant observation, which is whether or not it will affect the EU’s ruling on the antidumping case and its investigation into the China’s subsidies.

The prospect for October shows Taiwan’s utility is expected to increase, and the prices may return to be steady because of the double remedies. With the exception that the Sino-America Silicon’s revenues were growing, which occupied the major percentage of Taiwanese vendors’ revenues in September, the whole revenues decreased by 10% to 40%. The green energy industry Green Energy Technology even hit record low in revenue in recent years. While the market hit a low point remains stagnant, the Taiwanese vendors hold onto the belief that opportunities will arise in a worst-case scenario are where risks are”, and try hoping to find another turning point in the market by adopting different management patterns that suit the general trends.


Source：EnergyTrend
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