TrendForce：Mid-Autumn and national holiday sales expectation lifted in China on policy support and brands seeking profits

The LCD TV sales amounted to 6.07 million units during the 5 weeks of Mid-autumn and national holidays (9/8-10/7) in China, up 1.8% from the sales of 5.96 million units in same period of last year, according to the latest LCD TV sales survey issued by WitsView, the panel research division of the market intelligence provider TrendForce and its Chinese partner ∑intell. The figure is consistent with WitsView and ∑intell’s forecast of 6.1 million to 6.2 million units before the holidays.

After the national holiday, brands’ inventory level fell to 5.1 weeks from the average 6.3 weeks of pre-holiday level. Among the Chinese domestic brands, Skyworth, Konka, Hisense’s shipments increased 9%-10% compared to the same period of last year. Samsung showed the best performance among foreign brands while Japanese brands saw declines of various degrees. In terms of applications, above 39” and 3D products respectively saw growths of 3.3% and 8% compared to 1st May sales this year.

The market liquidity and total demands seem to be improving in China with the support of “steady growth” policies. But from the beginning of this year, some economic indicators showed potential concerns about Chinese economy, suggesting “active” consumption weakens, market confidence tumbles, and brands’ pressure to ship domestically climbs largely. The demands are depended on “external” measures such as price-cutting campaigns and subsidy policies, but the sales result of mid-autumn and national holidays indicates it is harder to demonstrate the benefit of cutting prices in exchange of sales volumes.   
  
After November Chinese TV brands are expected to start structural inventory adjustments according to panel demands. Large-sized, high efficiency models, and open cell remain the restocking focus because brands have incentives to follow subsidy policies and generate more profits. Benefitted from the Chinese New Year, Chinese domestic brands are forecast to reach a shipment volume of 13 million-13.5 million units in Q4, which is comparable to Q3 and up slightly from the same period of last year.