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TrendForce:Tight Supply and Replenishment Momentum Persists, 2HOct. NAND Flash Contract Prices Grows by 7-12%

30 October 2012 Semiconductors

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, as NAND Flash supply continues to tighten, and as demand momentum persists, 2HOct. contract prices have shown a growth of approximately 7-12%. Under effective management, many supplying vendors are continuing to stick to supply control strategies as a means of maintaining stable price levels. While a conservative attitude towards the aftermarket prospects is displayed from both the supply and demand sides, replenishment momentum for smartphone and tablet PCs have proven to be a lot stronger than expected. As such, TrendForce forecasts that the current wave of increasing NAND Flash prices will likely persist into November. Following 1HNov., the replenishment trend is likely to diminish on a gradual basis. Due to the reservations displayed towards 1Q13 demand, the demand and supply status within the market will likely undergo a number of adjustments. Even though NAND Flash vendors are making the effort to maintain the supply-demand balance, with the abovementioned market trends, we believe that the NAND Flash prices following November will likely go on a major downtrend.      

Demand Momentum for USB 3.0 Products to Warm Up Significantly

Starting next year, TrendForce predicts that the growth momentum for USB 3.0 Market will begin to increase due to the following reasons: 1) In spite of the NAND Flash market’s restrained supply-demand status during 3Q12, after the replenishment peak period passes in November, manufacturers are likely to put an end to their supply tightening strategies. This would, in turn, allow for UFD manufacturers to receive a more steady supply of resources; 2) The Single-Chanel USB 3.0 controller IC entered into mass production phase during 2H12, and is expected to be released as early as during 1H13 (after undergoing various clients’ verifications). At the same time, with the number of USB 3.0 Controller ICs on the rise, USB 3.0’s costs and price will begin to decline, and reach within distance of USB2.0 Controller IC prices; 3) Following the increasing number of Ivy Bridge PC releases, technology associated with USB 3.0 supported Interface will become more mature. As such, USB3.0 is expected to experience major growth and momentum during 2013.

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