TrendForce: 1H’Dec DRAM Contract Price to Continue Rising due to Yield Issues

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the holiday sales momentum and stabilized market shipments are both helping PC-OEMs to digest their inventory. The 1H’Dec contract prices have experienced a slight increase as the yield issues experienced by suppliers remain unresolved. For 4GB, the average prices rose by an estimated 3%, climbing from US$ 33 to US$ 34. The 2GB modules, on the other hand, experienced the same amount of price growth (3%) following the massive reductions in their supplies. Due to the above developments, it is predicted that the contract price uptrend will continue throughout 2H’Dec.

With regard to the specific contract prices, the highest price for 4Gb chips is currently US$ 4.06. In the spot market, the 4Gb price rose by an estimated 8.5% in early December, and reached up to as high as US$ 4.13. Assuming that the DRAM shipments are continuing to be delayed by the yield issues and that the PC OEM’s replenishment demands persist, chances are high that the chip prices will continue to rise in the short run.

Affected by the Wuxi Plant fire accident, various of the manufacturers' DRAM inventory levels have dropped on a gradual basis; the majority has approximately 3~4 weeks of inventory as of this moment, whereas the more shipment-heavy PC-OEMs' inventory levels are down to below 3 weeks. With the PC-OEMs seeking to replenish their inventory, the contract price trend is likely to be stable in the short term.